United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index  Forecast 2016-2020

Economic Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 50.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Economic Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 50.13 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is projected to trend around 50.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Economic Optimism Index 51.3 50.9 50.53 50.24 50.13 50.05
United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - was last predicted on Sunday, June 25, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 94.5 2.6 95 94 94 86.7
Retail Sales MoM -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.28 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 3.8 3 3.1 3.89 3.89 3.89
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Consumer Spending 11688 11745 11796 11832 11877 12209
Disposable Personal Income 14432 14519 14628 14739 14849 16054
Personal Spending 0.4 0.1 0.31 0.4 0.31 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.32 0.31 0.6 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 5.3 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Consumer Credit 8.2 15.64 16.05 16.09 16.12 16.12
Private Sector Credit 9221 9253 9333 9409 9481 10068
Bank Lending Rate 4 4 3.89 4.25 3.91 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 51.3 50.9 50.53 50.24 50.13 50.05
Redbook Index 2.8 2.51 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.5 79.5 79.5 80 79.7 82.6
Chain Store Sales 4254 5072 4760 4821 4808 4810