United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index  Forecast


Economic Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 50.55 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Economic Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 49.97 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is projected to trend around 49.55 in 2020, according to our econometric models.


United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
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United States Consumer Last Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 101 94 94 94.5 93 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 1.6 0.2 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1 0.4 0.36 0.4 0.35 0.4
Consumer Spending 11853 11989 12057 12118 12175 12541
Disposable Personal Income 14417 14408 14407 14405 14403 14384
Personal Spending 0.1 0.4 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.5
Personal Income 0.2 0.6 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44
Personal Savings 3.6 3.97 4.15 4.24 4.34 5.05
Consumer Credit 13.1 11.27 10.26 9.46 8.93 7.85
Private Sector Credit 9370 9441 9479 9497 9505 9477
Bank Lending Rate 4.25 4.15 4.15 4.25 4.6 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 50.3 50.55 50.31 50.12 49.97 49.55
Redbook Index 3.6 3.09 2.74 2.55 2.44 2.3
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.63 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 78.7 80 80.2 80.3 77.14 82.6
Chain Store Sales 4100 5966 6343 6464 6503 6529
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113 111 110 109 108 103
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.2 80.46 80.13 79.83 79.58 78.42
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.7 2.76 2.81 2.85 2.89 3.23