US Core Inflation Above Forecasts

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, rose to 2.6% in September 2026 from a five-year low of 2.4% in August, slightly exceeding the expected 2.5%. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3.2% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+22.4%), recreation (+2.8%), medical care (+1.5%), and education (+3.8%). On a monthly basis, core CPI rose by 0.3 in September, the same pace as August, but above market expectations of a 0.2% increase.

The core inflation rate in the US, which excludes exogenous food and fuel costs, eased to 2.4% in August of 2026 from 2.5% the previous month, aligned with market expectations. It was the lowest since March 2021, showing some normalization since surging in the post-Covid economy. Inflation was lower for commodities less food and energy commodities (0.7%) and new vehicles (0.6%). In turn, price growth remained elevated for shelter (3.0%) and medical care services (2.5%), while remaining close to the core rate for transportation services (2.4%). From the previous month, core consumer prices rose by 0.3%.

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased by 3.2% over the last year, down from 3.3% in June. Other indexes with slower price increases include airline fares (+25.5% vs 26.5%), medical care (+1.7% vs 2%), recreation (+2.6% vs 2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations.