US Core Inflation Matches Forecasts at 2.5%

2026-08-12 12:36 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts.

The heavyweight shelter index increased by 3.2% over the last year, down from 3.3% in June.

Other indexes with slower price increases include airline fares (+25.5% vs 26.5%), medical care (+1.7% vs 2%), recreation (+2.6% vs 2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2% vs 2.5%).

On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations.



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US Core Inflation Matches Forecasts at 2.5%
The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased by 3.2% over the last year, down from 3.3% in June. Other indexes with slower price increases include airline fares (+25.5% vs 26.5%), medical care (+1.7% vs 2%), recreation (+2.6% vs 2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations.
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The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, fell to 2.6% in June 2026 from a seven-month high of 2.9% in May and below the expected 2.8%. The slowdown was driven by a modest easing in shelter costs (3.3% vs 3.4% in May) and softer price increases for other categories including airline fares (26.5% vs 27%), apparel (3.9% vs 4.8%); medical care (2% vs 2.6%) and household furnishings and operations (2.5% vs 3%). Month-over-month, core consumer prices were flat, after a 0.2% increase in May and undershooting market estimates of a 0.2% rise.
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