Latest News Stream - Core Inflation Rate

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, increased 2.1% year-on-year in September 2026, following a 1.7% rise in August. It was the highest reading since December 2025, matching market forecasts. The latest reading pushed inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months, though government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the index excluding fresh food and fuel, which the Bank of Japan closely watches as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, rose 2.4% year-on-year in September, marking the first increase since October 2025 and the fastest pace in six months. The BoJ raised interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25% at its September meeting, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since April 1995.

The UK's annual core inflation rate rose to 2.8% in September 2026 from 2.6% in each of the previous four months, marking its highest level since March and slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.7%. The acceleration reflected faster price growth in both goods (3.2% vs 2.7% in August) and services (3.7% vs 3.4%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, easing from a 0.3% rise in August.

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, rose to 2.6% in September 2026 from a five-year low of 2.4% in August, slightly exceeding the expected 2.5%. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3.2% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+22.4%), recreation (+2.8%), medical care (+1.5%), and education (+3.8%). On a monthly basis, core CPI rose by 0.3 in September, the same pace as August, but above market expectations of a 0.2% increase.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, increased 1.7% yoy in August 2026, after a 1.8% rise in July. The latest reading slowed from the highest rate in six months, touched a month earlier, and was below the market forecast of 1.8%. Still, the latest reading remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for an eighth straight month, as government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the index excluding the effects of volatile fresh food and fuel, which the Bank of Japan closely watches as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, stood at 1.9% year-on-year in August, remaining at its fastest increase in three months. The BoJ left interest rates at 1.0% at its July meeting, keeping them at their highest level since September 1995, after a 25-bps hike in June. The release came hours before the BoJ’s meeting today, with the market expecting rates to rise to 1.25%.

The UK's annual core inflation rate remained at 2.6% in August 2026, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and staying at its highest level since March, in line with market expectations. Services inflation was steady at 3.4%, while goods inflation accelerated (2.7% vs 2.2% in July). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.3%, up from a 0.2% increase in July.

The core inflation rate in the US, which excludes exogenous food and fuel costs, eased to 2.4% in August of 2026 from 2.5% the previous month, aligned with market expectations. It was the lowest since March 2021, showing some normalization since surging in the post-Covid economy. Inflation was lower for commodities less food and energy commodities (0.7%) and new vehicles (0.6%). In turn, price growth remained elevated for shelter (3.0%) and medical care services (2.5%), while remaining close to the core rate for transportation services (2.4%). From the previous month, core consumer prices rose by 0.3%.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, increased 1.8% year-on-year in July 2026, following a 1.6% rise in June. It was the highest core inflation rate since January, in line with market forecasts. Still, the latest reading remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a seventh straight month, as government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the index excluding the effects of volatile fresh food and fuel, which the Bank of Japan closely watches as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, climbed 1.9% year-on-year in July, marking the fastest increase in three months after posting the softest increase since August 2022 at 1.7% in June. The BoJ left interest rates at 1.0% at its July meeting, remaining at their highest level since September 1995, following a 25-bps hike in June to prevent higher oil prices from fueling inflation.

The UK's annual core inflation rate remained at 2.6% in July 2026, unchanged for the third consecutive month. It stayed at its highest level since March and slightly above market expectations of 2.5%. The annual rate for CPI goods accelerated (2.2% vs 1.7% in June), while CPI services inflation eased (3.4% vs 3.6%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.2%, slowing from 0.3% increases in both June and May and marking the softest monthly reading since January.

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased by 3.2% over the last year, down from 3.3% in June. Other indexes with slower price increases include airline fares (+25.5% vs 26.5%), medical care (+1.7% vs 2%), recreation (+2.6% vs 2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, increased 1.6% year-on-year in June 2026, following a 1.4% rise in May, which was the lowest level since March 2022. It was the highest core inflation rate since March and was in line with market forecasts of 1.6%. Still, the latest reading remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a fifth straight month, as government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the index excluding the effects of volatile fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, rose 1.7% year-on-year in June, marking the softest increase since August 2022. The BoJ raised interest rates by 25 bps to their highest level since September 1995 at its June meeting, marking the first rate hike since last December, to prevent higher oil prices from fueling inflation.

The UK's annual core inflation rate held steady at 2.6% in June 2026, matching May's reading and remaining at its highest level since March. The latest figure came in slightly above market expectations of 2.5%, despite easing price pressures in both core goods (1.7% vs. 2.0% in May) and core services (3.6% vs. 3.7%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.3%, unchanged from May, staying at the softest monthly increase since January.

Norway’s core inflation rate, which excludes energy prices and taxes, fell to 2.7% in June 2026, its lowest level since January 2025 and below both the preliminary estimate of 3.4% and Norges Bank’s 3.3% projection. The decline was primarily driven by lower electronics and food costs, reducing immediate pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates next month. In June, Norges Bank held its policy rate steady at 4.25% but reiterated that inflation remained too high, signaling that borrowing costs would likely rise later in the year. Governor Ida Wolden Bache emphasized that a somewhat tighter monetary policy would be necessary to bring core inflation down to the 2% target. However, some analysts now view an August rate hike as the "base case," with a potential "hike and likely done" signal, as Norwegian officials have made clear they aim to avoid surprising markets with a dovish shift in the short term.

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, fell to 2.6% in June 2026 from a seven-month high of 2.9% in May and below the expected 2.8%. The slowdown was driven by a modest easing in shelter costs (3.3% vs 3.4% in May) and softer price increases for other categories including airline fares (26.5% vs 27%), apparel (3.9% vs 4.8%); medical care (2% vs 2.6%) and household furnishings and operations (2.5% vs 3%). Month-over-month, core consumer prices were flat, after a 0.2% increase in May and undershooting market estimates of a 0.2% rise.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 1.4% year-on-year in May 2026, in line with both the previous figure and market forecasts. Still, the latest reading marked the lowest level since March 2022 and remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a fourth straight month, as government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the index excluding the effects of volatile fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, rose 1.8% year-on-year in May, marking the softest increase since September 2022. The BoJ raised interest rates by 25 bps to their highest level since September 1995 at its June meeting, marking the first rate hike since last December, to prevent higher oil prices from fueling inflation.

The UK's annual core inflation rate edged up to 2.6% in May 2026 from April's nearly five-year low of 2.5%, though it came in slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Core goods inflation eased to 2.0% from 2.4%, while core services inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.3%, slowing from a 0.7% increase in April and falling short of forecasts of 0.4%. It also marked the softest monthly rise since January.

The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, climbed to 2.9% year-over-year in May 2026, matching market forecasts and reaching its highest level since September 2025. Key drivers included shelter (+3.4%), transportation services (+4.1%), medical care services (+3.6%), and apparel (+4.8%), while used cars and trucks (-2.0%) and medical care commodities (-1.8%) declined. Month-over-month, core consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, following a 0.4% increase in April, slightly below expectations of 0.3%.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 1.4% year-on-year in April 2026, easing from 1.8% in the previous month and coming in softer than market forecasts of 1.7%. The latest reading marked the lowest level since March 2022 and remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a third straight month, as government fuel subsidies helped offset price pressures from higher oil costs linked to the Iran war. Meanwhile, the index excluding the effects of volatile fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a better gauge of demand-driven price movements, rose 1.9% in April, marking the softest increase since July 2024. The BoJ will meet on June 16, after keeping its short-term policy rate at 0.75% last month amid higher oil prices and yen weakness. The policymakers remained cautious about the uncertain situation in the Middle East, although several members still saw scope for near-term interest rate hikes.

The core consumer inflation rate in the Euro Area, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, dropped to 2.2% in April of 2026 from 2.3% in the previous month, consistent with the preliminary estimate and below the initial market expectations of 2.3%. Along with January of this year, the result reflected the lowest core inflation rate since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which triggered an energy crisis that lifted prices through core sectors of the European economy. From the previous month, core consumer prices rose 0.9%.

The UK’s annual core inflation rate eased to 2.5% in April 2026 from 3.1% in the prior month, slightly below market expectations of 2.6%. It marked the lowest reading since July 2021, largely due to a sharp slowdown in core services inflation, which cooled to 3.2% from 4.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, goods inflation accelerated to 2.4% from 2.1%, indicating persistent price pressures in consumer goods. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.7%, easing short of forecasts for a 0.8% increase but picking up from March’s 0.6% gain. The latest figure marked the third straight monthly rise and the fastest monthly pace in a year.

The annual core inflation rate in the United States, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.6% in the previous month, slightly above market expectations of 2.7%. It was the sharpest core inflation rate since September of last year. Prices rose sharply for services less energy services (3.3%) amid higher costs for shelter (3.3%) and transportation services (4.3%). IN turn, prices rose sharply for apparel (4.2%), while they fell rose less for new vehicles (0.2%) and tumbled for used cars and trucks (-2.7%). From the previous month, core consumer prices rose by 0.4%, the sharpest increase since January 2025.