Rice Futures at 1-Month Lows

Rice futures rose above $11 per hundredweight in March, the highest level in about a month, tracking broader gains in grain markets amid the war involving Iran. The conflict has pushed insurance premiums, container freight rates, and fuel costs higher, while also disrupting shipping routes. On the supply side, the FAO, in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, increased its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), representing a 2.1% yoy increase and a record high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are expected to lead the season’s production growth, more than offsetting declines projected for Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the US. Production estimate for Indonesia was also raised, as final government assessments indicate that a significant expansion in harvested area lifted Indonesian output to a decade high. Production estimates were also revised higher for Thailand.

Rice decreased to 10.55 USD/cwt, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice lost 0.93%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 24.33%.

Rice futures eased to below $9.90 per hundredweight, the lowest since early January, pressured by ample global supply from abundant harvests in major Asian exporters, which more than offset demand. The FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on February 6, projected global rice production for 2025/26 at 561.6 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year and an all-time high, reflecting a 2.9 million-tonne upward revision since December, largely driven by stronger-than-expected output in India. Higher output in Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia is also seen outweighing contractions in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States. Global rice stocks are expected to climb 3.8% by the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching a new high of 217.7 million tonnes, exceeding December estimates by 900,000 tonnes, primarily due to India’s revised reserves.