Rice Futures at 1-Month Lows

Rice futures have fluctuated around $11 per hundredweight, as the market contends with significant volatility driven by geopolitical conflicts, rising energy costs, and higher logistics expenses impacting supply and demand. Prices, however, remain well below the $19 per hundredweight peak in May 2024, amid ample supplies and weak demand from major buyers such as African countries. India holds massive stockpiles, while Thailand and Vietnam are awaiting the arrival of their new harvests, adding to the global supply balance. In the meantime, official data from the Philippines showed rice stockpiles expanded in March compared with a year earlier, driven by the recovery in government-held reserves and steady increases in household holdings. Meanwhile, the USDA expects a reduction in rice acreage in the United States this year, including a sharp decline in Arkansas, the country’s top rice-producing state.

Rice futures eased to around $11 per hundredweight, the lowest in two weeks, following broader movements in grain markets. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US had held talks with Iran about a possible end to the conflict and had withdrawn his 48-hour ultimatum helped to calm global markets. The Middle East crisis has driven up insurance, freight, and fuel costs while disrupting shipping routes, hitting top Asian producers, particularly India. The conflict has severely affected India’s rice exports, leaving millers in key production regions with unsold stock and mounting financial pressures. Meanwhile, the FAO in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, raised its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase and a new record high. Production increases in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia should offset declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the US.

Rice increased to 11.44 USD/cwt, the highest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 6.33%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 15.16%.