Cocoa futures on ICE were trading around $2,600 a tonne, getting closer to a 6-month high of $2,750 hit earlier this month, amid expectations that supplies could tighten in the upcoming 2021/22 season, mainly driven by a drop in Ghana's output, the second-largest producer of cocoa. Production in West Africa in the upcoming 2021/22 is expected to decrease by at least 12.5% amid late and heavy rains. However, the International Cocoa Organization projected a global cocoa surplus of 230,000 tonnes in the current 2020/21 season, up from a previous projection of 165,000 tonnes.
Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 5379 in July of 1977. Cocoa - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on September of 2021.
Cocoa is expected to trade at 2488.62 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2918.14 in 12 months time.