Cocoa futures rose further to breach $4,400 per tonne, the highest level since late January, fueled by fund short covering and growing supply risks. While weather conditions in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, have recently improved, supporting short-term output and allowing for a gradual rebuilding of global stocks, the outlook remains uncertain. Irregular rainfall during the key mid-crop season continues to pose risks, especially if dry spells persist and affect yields and bean quality in the latter stages of the harvest. Moreover, fertilizer shortages and the rising likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to constrain 2026/27 production, with farmers in top grower Ivory Coast already reporting difficulties securing inputs amid cash constraints. Reflecting this, StoneX has lowered its global cocoa surplus forecasts for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, signaling tighter supply conditions. On the demand side, conditions remain subdued.
Cocoa rose to 4,359 USD/T on May 7, 2026, up 5.42% from the previous day. Over the past month, Cocoa's price has risen 33.22%, but it is still 52.25% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024. Cocoa - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May 8 of 2026.
Cocoa rose to 4,359 USD/T on May 7, 2026, up 5.42% from the previous day. Over the past month, Cocoa's price has risen 33.22%, but it is still 52.25% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Cocoa is expected to trade at 3494.87 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3017.40 in 12 months time.