Rice Prices Nearly One-Month Highs

Rice futures eased to around $11 per hundredweight, the lowest in two weeks, following broader movements in grain markets. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US had held talks with Iran about a possible end to the conflict and had withdrawn his 48-hour ultimatum helped to calm global markets. The Middle East crisis has driven up insurance, freight, and fuel costs while disrupting shipping routes, hitting top Asian producers, particularly India. The conflict has severely affected India’s rice exports, leaving millers in key production regions with unsold stock and mounting financial pressures. Meanwhile, the FAO in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, raised its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase and a new record high. Production increases in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia should offset declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the US.

Rice increased to 11.44 USD/cwt, the highest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 6.33%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 15.16%.

Rice futures rose above $11 per hundredweight in March, the highest level in about a month, tracking broader gains in grain markets amid the war involving Iran. The conflict has pushed insurance premiums, container freight rates, and fuel costs higher, while also disrupting shipping routes. On the supply side, the FAO, in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, increased its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), representing a 2.1% yoy increase and a record high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are expected to lead the season’s production growth, more than offsetting declines projected for Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the US. Production estimate for Indonesia was also raised, as final government assessments indicate that a significant expansion in harvested area lifted Indonesian output to a decade high. Production estimates were also revised higher for Thailand.