Raw sugar futures on ICE traded at around 19.5 cents per lb, the lowest in three weeks, as supply worries momentarily wane across exporting countries. Data by industry group Unica showed that center-south Brazilian sugar mills produced 626 thousand tonnes of sugar in the first half of November, surpassing market expectations of 457.6 thousand. Consequently, 12.55 million tonnes of sugarcane were crushed in the same period, above market expectations of 9.4 million. At the same time, Indian mills produced 20.9 million tonnes of sugar from October 1st to November 15th, nearly 25% more than in the corresponding period of the last year, while operations started crushing earlier than usual to take advantage of recent high prices. Further output increases were consistent in North America, as the USDA upwardly revised Mexico’s sugar production forecast to 6.34 million tonnes during 2021/2022 (from 6.06 in the previous period), as higher precipitation alleviated lingering drought effects.
Historically, Sugar reached an all time high of 65.20 in November of 1974. Sugar - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on November of 2021.
Sugar is expected to trade at 20.22 Cents/LB by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 22.26 in 12 months time.