Week Ahead - May 11th

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East will remain the focus for global markets as the US-Iran ceasefire was repeatedly threatened last week. Among economic data releases, the spotlight will be on the US consumer and producer inflation rates amid a divided Fed, in addition to retail sales and industrial production. In Europe, the UK will post its GDP, trade balance, and join the Eurozone in publishing industrial production, while Germany will publish the ZEW sentiment report. China will release key monetary aggregates and join the US in posting its CPI and PPI. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan will unveil details on policymakers' takes and leading indicators are should be the focus in Australia. Earnings will be important in Asia and Europe, featuring results from Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens, Allianz, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Financial, Mizuho, and the Commonwealth Bank.
Andre Joaquim | andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com
5/8/2026 5:37:13 PM
Americas
In the US, first quarter earnings will wind down at the latter half of the season but results are awaited from Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, and Constellation Energy. Investors will also closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the next steps in monetary policy. Also, the US Senate is set to vote on May 11 to invoke cloture on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. A final floor confirmation vote is expected before the end of the week, ahead of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expiration on May 15. On the data front, a busy economic calendar features key inflation data, including consumer prices, producer prices, and foreign trade prices. The April headline inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 3.4% year-over-year, the highest since April 2024, driven by rising energy costs amid the conflict with Iran. Monthly inflation is forecast to ease to 0.6% from a near four-year high of 0.9%, while the core rate is projected to rise to 0.4% from 0.2%. Producer prices likely increased 0.4% last month, down from March’s 0.5%, and import prices may have surged 1.1%, the steepest rise since March 2022, due to higher petroleum prices. Other key releases include retail trade, industrial production, existing home sales, business inventories, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the government’s monthly budget statement. Elsewhere in America, Canada’s housing starts will be in focus, along with Brazil’s inflation rate, retail trade, and business confidence data.

Federal Reserve, Washington DC

Europe
In the United Kingdom, attention will center on preliminary first-quarter GDP figures alongside monthly data on GDP, industrial production and trade balance. The British economy is expected to expand 0.6% in Q1, marking the strongest quarterly growth in a year, despite forecasts pointing to a 0.2% contraction in March. Industrial output is projected to decline, while manufacturing production is seen falling for a second consecutive month. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to decline for a fourth straight month, potentially reaching its lowest level since December 2022 as confidence remains pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and softer economic momentum. German wholesale prices are meanwhile forecast to rise for a fourth consecutive month. In the Euro Area, industrial production is expected to increase for a second month, suggesting some stabilization in activity, while Italy’s industrial output is projected to remain flat after a modest gain in February. Other key releases in the region include the Euro Area’s second estimate for Q1 GDP and preliminary employment change figures, final inflation figures for Germany, France, Spain and Italy, France’s unemployment rate, Switzerland’s industrial production data, and Russia’s first-quarter GDP and inflation readings.

City of London, UK

Asia-Pacific
In China, investors will focus on inflation data, with consumer prices expected to rise 0.8% year-on-year in April, easing from 1% growth in March. In contrast, producer inflation is projected to accelerate to 1.5% from 0.5%, which would mark the highest reading since August 2022. Money and credit data will also be closely watched, with new yuan loans seen plunging to CNY 300 billion from CNY 2.99 trillion in March. In Japan, attention will turn to the Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan’s April meeting for further clues on the monetary policy outlook. Key releases will also include household spending, which is expected to post another annual decline in March, along with current account figures, machine tool orders, and producer inflation data, with the latter likely accelerating to 3%. In India, markets will monitor April inflation figures, with both consumer and wholesale inflation expected to pick up to 3.8% and 4.4%, respectively. In Australia, investors will assess the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for May and the NAB Business Confidence survey for April, alongside data on home loans, the wage price index, and consumer inflation expectations. Attention will also be on the government’s 2026–27 Budget presentation on Tuesday. Elsewhere in the region, Malaysia and Hong Kong are set to release GDP figures, while South Korea and Malaysia will publish unemployment rate data. Key earnings from Asia Pacific include Tencent, Alibaba Group, Takeda Pharmaceutical, JD.com, Mitsubishi Financial, Mizuho, and the Commonwealth Bank.

Shanghai, China