Retail sales in South Africa increased 3.1 percent in November of 2018 from a downwardly revised 2.1 percent gain in the previous month and above market expectations of a 2.5 percent rise. It was the biggest increase in retail trade since March, as sales advanced further for general dealers (3.7 percent from 0.7 percent in October); textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (4.2 percent from 2.0 percent) and household furniture, appliances and equipment (13.5 percent from 10.4 percent). Also, sales of food, beverages & tobacco fell at a softer pace (-1.9 percent from -1.7 percent). On the other hand, sales slowed for all other retailers (2.2 percent from 6.5 percent) and pharmaceuticals goods & cosmetics (2.2 percent from 4.6 percent) while declined at a faster pace for hardware, paint and glass (-2.4 percent from -0.4 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade went up 3.3 percent, after an upwardly revised 1.0 percent gain in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.49 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.