South Africa's retail trade went up 2.4 percent year-on-year in June 2019, after an upwardly revised 2.3 percent growth in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of a 2.3 percent rise. The largest annual increases were recorded for: other retailers (5.7 percent vs -1.4 percent in May); household furniture, appliances and equipment (5.2 percent vs 2.9 percent) and textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (4.8 percent vs 1.3 percent). In contrast, sales decreased for hardware, paint & glass (-0.7 percent vs 0.3 percent) and food, beverages & tobacco (-0.1 percent vs 2.3 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales went up 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.44 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.