Retail sales in Indonesia rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in July 2019, reversing a 1.8 percent drop in the previous month, buoyed by sales of food, beverages & tobacco (2.7 percent vs -3.4 percent in June), household equipment (4 percent vs 5.4 percent), and clothing (6.3 percent vs 15.8 percent). In addition, sales fell at a slower rate for fuel (-7.7 percent vs -10.9 percent), communication equipment and information (-5.2 percent vs -8.2 percent), and cultural and recreational goods (-3.9 percent vs -8.8 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales dropped by 5.3 percent in July, after a 6.5 percent fall in June. Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.54 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 6.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.