Turkey’s retail trade decreased 3.8% year-on-year in March of 2019, following a 4.9% fall in the previous month. It was the smallest drop in retail trade since September of 2018. Sales declined less for food, drinks & tobacco (-0.6% from -1.4% in February) and non-food products (-5.4% from -7.9%), while sales decreased further for automotive fuel (-4.1% from -2%). Within non-food products, sales fell less for computers, peripheral units and software, books, telecommunications equipment, etc. (-10.9% from -14.2%) and audio and video equipment, hardware, paints and glass, electrical household appliances, furniture, etc. (-13.5% from -18.5%); and sales rose faster for textiles, clothing and footwear (6.3% from 4.4%) and via mail orders and internet (23.7% from 22.2%). By contrast, sales went down for pharmaceutical goods, medical and orthopedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (-0.1% from 2.5%). On a monthly basis, retail sales surged 1%, up from a 0.8% gain in February. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 6.09 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -8.80 percent in December of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.