Turkey’s retail trade decreased 7.5 percent from a year earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 2.9 percent fall in the previous month. It was the second straight month drop in retail sales and the steepest since the series began in 2006, as sales declined faster for both automotive fuel (-7.6 percent vs -3.6 percent in September) and non-food products (-12.1 percent vs -7.8 percent), in particular computers, books, telecommunication equipment (-20.3 percent vs -15.6 percent) and electronics goods and furniture (-23.3 percent vs -26.9 percent). Additionally, a slowdown was seen in sales via mail orders and internet (4.5 percent vs 17.2 percent); medical goods & cosmetics trade (5.0 percent vs 6.6 percent), and textiles, clothing & footwear rose faster (2.8 percent vs 23.7 percent). Also, food, drinks and tobacco sales growth eased to 1.6 percent in October from 7.3 percent in September. On a monthly basis, retail trade went down 2.6 percent. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 6.62 percent from 2006 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -7.50 percent in October of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be -2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 3.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.