Turkey’s retail trade decreased 3.4 percent from a year earlier in September 2018, following an upwardly revised 1.5 percent growth in the previous month. It was the first drop in retail sales since February 2017 and the steepest decline since September 2009, as sales fell for both automotive fuel (-4 percent vs 1.2 percent in August) and non-food products (-8.3 percent vs -0.5 percent), in particular computers, books, telecommunication equipment (-16.1 percent vs -2.1 percent) and electronics goods and furniture (-27.6 percent vs -11.5 percent). In addition, a slowdown was seen in sales via mail orders and internet (17.3 percent vs 23.9 percent) and medical goods & cosmetics trade (6.1 percent vs 20.6 percent), while purchases of textiles, clothing & footwear rose faster (22.9 percent vs 2.8 percent). Food, drinks and tobacco sales growth accelerated to 6.9 percent in September from 5.3 percent in August. On a monthly basis, retail trade slumped 4.6 percent. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 6.74 percent from 2006 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -5.90 percent in June of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be -2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 3.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.