The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.2 percent month-over-month in September of 2020, after a 0.5 percent gain in August. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, improved to -0.48 percent in September from –2.28 percent in August. “Momentum continues to show a significant improvement consistent with the Australian economy moving out of recession," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "We expect that growth in both the September and December quarters will be clearly in positive territory, as the Australian economy opens up. We have also revised up our growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 following the announcement of the Federal Budget. Consistent with the steady progression in the leading index, we expect growth of 2.8 percent in 2021 and 3.5 percent in 2022."

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged -0.01 percent from 1960 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 0.54 percent in April of 1975 and a record low of -1.76 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2020. source: Westpac Banking Corporation, Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Australia to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2021, according to our econometric models.

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Australia Leading Economic Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.22 0.49 0.54 -1.76 1960 - 2020 percent Monthly
1996=100


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-07-22 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Jun 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
2020-08-19 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Jul 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2020-09-16 01:00 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Aug 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
2020-10-21 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Sep 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
2020-11-18 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Oct 0.2% 0.3%
2020-12-16 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Nov


News Stream
Australia Leading Index Rises 0.2% MoM in September
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.2 percent month-over-month in September of 2020, after a 0.5 percent gain in August. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, improved to -0.48 percent in September from –2.28 percent in August. “Momentum continues to show a significant improvement consistent with the Australian economy moving out of recession," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "We expect that growth in both the September and December quarters will be clearly in positive territory, as the Australian economy opens up. We have also revised up our growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 following the announcement of the Federal Budget. Consistent with the steady progression in the leading index, we expect growth of 2.8 percent in 2021 and 3.5 percent in 2022."
2020-10-21
Australia Leading Index Rises 0.5% MoM in August
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.5 percent month-over-month in august of 2020, the most since September 1997, after a 0.1 percent gain in July. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, improved to -2.56 percent in August from –4.42 percent in July. "These signals are broadly consistent with Westpac’s view that growth in the September quarter will be a solid 1.8 percent despite an expected 4 percent contraction in Victoria, which accounts for around 25 percent of national economic activity," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.
2020-09-16
Australia Leading Index Rises the Least in 3 Months
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.1 percent month-over-month in July of 2020, the least in three months, after an upwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in June. “The Index growth rate remains in deep negative territory consistent with recession, Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans said. "However, it appears to have bottomed out in April at -5.61%, and, without the recent disaster in Victoria, it seemed certain that the June quarter would have marked the low point in the growth cycle."
2020-08-19
Australia Leading Index Rises Further in June
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.4 percent month-over-month in June 2020, after a 0.2 percent gain in May. Meantime, the six- month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, went up to -4.44 percent in June from –5.29% in May. “Despite another modest improvement this month, the Index growth rate remains in deeply negative territory consistent with recession," said Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans. "Our forecast assumes additional stimulus of $15 billion to be announced in the Federal Budget in October and a further $15 billion to extend both JobKeeper and JobSeeker through to the end of the fiscal year."
2020-07-22

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.