The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index edged lower 0.1% month-on-month in January 2026, reversing a 0.1% rise in the previous month. More notably, the six-month annualized growth rate slowed sharply to 0.02% from 0.44% in December, indicating that the slightly above-trend momentum seen in the second half of 2025 has faded in early 2026. Despite the softer signal, Westpac still expects GDP growth to hold at 2.5% this year, close to its estimate of trend growth and broadly consistent with the index’s latest reading, which points to steady rather than accelerating activity. On monetary policy, while a near-term follow-up cash rate hike cannot be ruled out, the board is more likely to adopt a cautious stance, waiting for additional data before tightening further. The central bank’s next meeting is scheduled for March 16–17. source: Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index Australia decreased 0.10 percent in January of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged 0 percent from 1960 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 0.69 percent in November of 2020 and a record low of -1.92 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Leading Economic Index Australia decreased 0.10 percent in January of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-01-21 12:00 AM
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Dec 0.1% 0% 0.3%
2026-02-18 12:00 AM
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Jan -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
2026-03-19 12:00 AM
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Feb -0.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 631.00 1306.00 Companies Jan 2026
Building Capital Expenditure 2.10 0.30 percent Sep 2025
NAB Business Confidence 3.00 2.00 points Jan 2026
Business Inventories -0.90 0.10 percent Sep 2025
Capacity Utilization 74.80 74.80 percent Jan 2026
Passenger Car Sales 13365.00 12033.00 Units Jan 2026
Changes in Inventories -1916.00 1748.00 AUD Million Sep 2025
Composite Leading Indicator 100.77 100.70 points Jan 2026
Company Gross Profits 125152.00 125185.00 AUD Million Sep 2025
Corruption Index 76.00 77.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 12.00 10.00 Dec 2025
Industrial Production -0.20 -0.30 percent Sep 2025
Industrial Production Mom 0.50 6.50 percent Sep 2025
Ai Group Industry Index -12.30 -12.50 points Jan 2026
Ai Group Services Index -13.80 -13.80 points Jan 2026
Ai Group Construction Index 5.20 -16.90 points Jan 2026
Ai Group Manufacturing Index -19.40 -18.30 points Jan 2026
Westpac Leading Index MoM -0.10 0.10 percent Jan 2026
Manufacturing Production -1.90 -3.90 percent Sep 2025
Mining Production 0.00 1.30 percent Sep 2025
New Orders 35.00 23.00 points Dec 2025
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure 11.50 0.70 percent Sep 2025
Private Capital Expenditure 6.40 0.40 percent Sep 2025
Small Business Sentiment -2.00 -8.00 points Sep 2025
New Vehicle Sales 87092.00 98744.00 Units Jan 2026


Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.10 0.10 0.69 -1.92 1960 - 2026 percent Monthly
1996=100

News Stream
Australia Leading Index Muted
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index edged lower 0.1% month-on-month in January 2026, reversing a 0.1% rise in the previous month. More notably, the six-month annualized growth rate slowed sharply to 0.02% from 0.44% in December, indicating that the slightly above-trend momentum seen in the second half of 2025 has faded in early 2026. Despite the softer signal, Westpac still expects GDP growth to hold at 2.5% this year, close to its estimate of trend growth and broadly consistent with the index’s latest reading, which points to steady rather than accelerating activity. On monetary policy, while a near-term follow-up cash rate hike cannot be ruled out, the board is more likely to adopt a cautious stance, waiting for additional data before tightening further. The central bank’s next meeting is scheduled for March 16–17.
2026-02-18
Australia Leading Index Inches Higher
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged up 0.1% month-on-month in December 2025, following a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate rose to 0.42% from 0.20% in November, suggesting that the economic recovery seen through 2025 is carrying into early 2026. However, the improvement remains tentative, as the index is only modestly above its long-run trend and had stalled through the middle of last year. Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting Matthew Hassan noted that a clearly strong growth pulse, typically signaled by Leading Index growth above 1%, still appears some way off. Westpac expects the Australian economy to grow 2.4% this year. On the monetary front, the central bank is widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at its February meeting. Still, policymakers remain alert to inflation risks and have laid the groundwork for potential rate hikes should price pressures re-emerge.
2026-01-20
Australia Leading Index Subdued
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia was flat on the month in November 2025, following a 0.1% rise in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate eased to 0.16% from 0.32% in October, signaling slower momentum three to nine months ahead. The index has retreated from a brief period above trend, reflecting equity market weakness and softer consumer sentiment. While still positive, the reading points to subdued activity. Westpac forecasts growth to edge up only modestly, from 2.1% yoy currently to 2.4% in 2026, broadly in line with trend. Economist Ryan Wells noted inflation is expected to moderate next year, but the central bank’s hawkish stance has delayed prospects for policy easing until 2027. Upside inflation surprises could revive the risk of a rate hike, while a sharper-than-expected labor market slowdown might bring forward rate cuts.
2025-12-17