Japan’s coincident economic index, which tracks factory output, employment, and retail sales, rose to 116.8 in January 2026 from a final 114.3 in the prior month, according to flash data. It marked the highest reading since February 2025, signaling a moderate improvement in overall economic activity. The impact of recent U.S. trade policies appears to be concentrated mainly in the automotive sector, while other areas of the economy showed more resilience. Also, employment and income conditions improved, helping lift household consumption, while business investment also showed signs of recovery despite lingering cost pressures. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at its first meeting of 2026. In its quarterly outlook, the board raised its FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%, citing support from a recent trade deal with Washington and Tokyo’s sizable stimulus package. source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Coincident Index in Japan increased to 116.80 points in January from 114.30 points in December of 2025. Coincident Index in Japan averaged 107.99 points from 1985 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 124.50 points in December of 2017 and a record low of 83.30 points in March of 2009. This page provides the latest reported value for - Japan Coincident Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Japan Coincident Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2026.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-26 05:00 AM
Coincident Index Final
Dec 114.3 114.9 114.5
2026-03-09 05:00 AM
Coincident Index Prel
Jan 116.8 114.3 114.5
2026-03-26 05:00 AM
Coincident Index Final
Jan 114.3 116.8


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
BSI Large Manufacturing 3.80 4.70 percent Mar 2026
Changes in Inventories -242.40 819.20 JPY Billion Dec 2025
Coincident Index 116.80 114.30 points Jan 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.90 47.60 points Feb 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.00 50.10 points Feb 2026
Leading Economic Index 112.40 110.30 Points Jan 2026
Machinery Orders MoM 19.10 -11.00 percent Dec 2025
New Orders 1253.24 1019.14 JPY Billion Dec 2025


Japan Coincident Index
Coincident Index correlates with the business cycle, and is used to identify the current state of the economy. In general, increasing coincident index shows that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is calculated using month-over-month percentage changes in 11 leading indicators, 11 coincident indicators, and 6 lagging indicators.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
116.80 114.30 124.50 83.30 1985 - 2026 points Monthly
2020=100

News Stream
Japan Coincident Index Notches 11-Month Peak
Japan’s coincident economic index, which tracks factory output, employment, and retail sales, rose to 116.8 in January 2026 from a final 114.3 in the prior month, according to flash data. It marked the highest reading since February 2025, signaling a moderate improvement in overall economic activity. The impact of recent U.S. trade policies appears to be concentrated mainly in the automotive sector, while other areas of the economy showed more resilience. Also, employment and income conditions improved, helping lift household consumption, while business investment also showed signs of recovery despite lingering cost pressures. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at its first meeting of 2026. In its quarterly outlook, the board raised its FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%, citing support from a recent trade deal with Washington and Tokyo’s sizable stimulus package.
2026-03-09
Japan Coincident Index Confirmed at 4-Month Low
Japan’s coincident economic index, which tracks factory output, employment, and retail sales, slipped to 114.3 in December 2025, below the flash estimate of 114.5 and down from November’s 114.9, marking the lowest level since August. The decline reflected pressure on autos and related sectors from U.S. trade policies. Even so, the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, underpinned by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping fiscal package unveiled in November to ease household burdens, spur growth, and counter rising prices. On the monetary front, the Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25bps to 0.75% in December, its second hike of the year, signaling a cautious shift away from ultra-loose policy. Policymakers stressed, however, that real rates remain “significantly negative” and financial conditions broadly accommodative.
2026-02-26
Japan Coincident Index Slips to 4-Month Low
Japan’s coincident economic index, which tracks factory output, employment, and retail sales, fell to 114.5 in December 2025 from 114.9 the previous month, according to flash data. It marked the lowest reading since August, underscoring the drag from U.S. trade policies on sectors such as autos. Even so, the broader economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, supported by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s JPY 21.3 trillion fiscal package unveiled in November to ease household burdens, spur growth, and counter rising prices. On the monetary front, the Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25bps to 0.75% in December, its second hike of the year, signaling a cautious move away from ultra-loose policy. Still, policymakers emphasized that real rates remain “significantly negative” and overall financial conditions broadly accommodative.
2026-02-06