Industrial production in Mexico rose 1.8 percent year-on-year in September 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in the prior month and matching market expectations. It was the fastest growth in industrial activity since April, as output rose faster for manufacturing (2.4% vs 2.2% in August), driven by oil and coal products (5.3% vs -6.5%) and electronic products (5.0% vs 3.9%). Also, production rebounded for mining (2.9% vs -3.8%), largely due to a 5.6 percent rise in extraction of oil & gas, the first gain since January 2013. In contrast, output eased for utilities (3.2% vs 3.5%) and it shrank for construction (-0.7% vs -1.9%). Considering the January to September period of 2018, industrial output grew 0.5 percent over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production rose 1 percent, reversing from a downwardly revised 0.2 percent drop in August. Industrial Production in Mexico averaged 1.78 percent from 1980 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.82 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -17.50 percent in October of 1995.
Industrial Production in Mexico is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Mexico to stand at -1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Industrial Production is projected to trend around 1.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.