Australia’s consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.9% in September 2026, matching August’s pace amid persistent price pressures. The outlook was reinforced by July data showing trimmed mean CPI stayed elevated at 3.6% year-on-year, unchanged from June and well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said policymakers would consider whether further tightening is warranted at their September meeting, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stressed the bank has limited tolerance for stronger inflation pressures. The hawkish signals have prompted all four major banks, NAB, ANZ, CBA and Westpac, to forecast another rate hike before year-end, with NAB expecting a September move and the other three seeing a November increase. source: Melbourne Institute

Inflation Expectations in Australia remained unchanged at 4.90 percent in September. Inflation Expectations in Australia averaged 4.39 percent from 1995 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.60 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 2.80 percent in September of 2013. This page provides - Australia Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Australia Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in Australia remained unchanged at 4.90 percent in September. Inflation Expectations in Australia is expected to be 5.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2027 and 2.50 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-08-20 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Aug 4.9% 4.7% 4.4%
2026-09-10 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Sep 4.9% 4.9% 5.1%
2026-10-08 12:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Oct 4.9%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Commodity Prices YoY 15.50 17.20 percent Aug 2026
CPI 103.07 102.03 points Jul 2026
Core Consumer Prices 107.87 107.35 points Jul 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY 3.60 3.60 percent Jul 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 104.71 104.27 points Jul 2026
CPI Transportation 101.24 98.64 points Jul 2026
Export Prices 160.30 158.60 points Jun 2026
Export Prices 1.10 0.50 percent Jun 2026
Food Inflation 3.20 3.30 percent Jul 2026
GDP Chain Price Index 105.60 106.20 points Jun 2026
GDP Deflator 106.20 105.80 points Jun 2026
Import Prices 143.20 135.50 points Jun 2026
Import Prices 5.70 0.10 percent Jun 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.90 4.90 percent Sep 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.50 3.80 percent Jul 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 1.00 -0.10 percent Jul 2026
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM 0.50 1.00 percent Aug 2026
PPI 1.30 0.40 percent Jun 2026
Producer Prices 140.00 138.20 points Jun 2026
PPI YoY 3.60 3.00 percent Jun 2026
Rent Inflation 3.60 3.60 percent Jul 2026
Services Inflation 3.70 4.00 percent Jul 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ 0.80 0.80 percent Jun 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI 0.40 0.30 percent Jul 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY 3.60 3.60 percent Jul 2026


Australia Inflation Expectations
In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.90 4.90 8.60 2.80 1995 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Australia Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations stood at 4.9% in September 2026, matching August’s pace amid persistent price pressures. The outlook was reinforced by July data showing trimmed mean CPI stayed elevated at 3.6% year-on-year, unchanged from June and well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said policymakers would consider whether further tightening is warranted at their September meeting, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stressed the bank has limited tolerance for stronger inflation pressures. The hawkish signals have prompted all four major banks, NAB, ANZ, CBA and Westpac, to forecast another rate hike before year-end, with NAB expecting a September move and the other three seeing a November increase.
2026-09-10
Australia Inflation Expectations Rise to 4.9%
Australia's consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in August 2026, rebounding from July's six-month low of 4.7%. The increase pointed to persistent price pressures, with trimmed mean CPI rising 3.6% year-on-year in June, matching its fastest pace since September 2024. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock recently warned that inflation remains too high, while highlighting upside risks from commodity price volatility amid the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said that tight monetary policy was working as intended, with its restrictive stance continuing to weigh on demand and help bring inflation back toward target.
2026-08-20
Australia Inflation Expectations Fall to Six-Month Low
Australia's consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July 2026, down from 5.5% the previous month, marking the lowest reading since January. The decline reflected moderating headline inflation, though still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target. Meanwhile, underlying inflation remains sticky, with the trimmed mean CPI up 3.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since September 2024. Governor Michele Bullock noted that three rate hikes since early 2026 have curbed domestic price pressures and limited spillovers from higher oil and commodity costs. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to restoring price stability, stressing that while inflation accelerated in late 2025 amid supply shocks and energy costs, tighter policy should gradually ease pressures.
2026-07-16