Australia’s consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.6% in May 2026 from April’s more than three-year high of 5.9%. Still, concerns over stubborn price pressures persisted after a Reserve Bank official warned that the recent surge in oil prices amid the Iran conflict posed a challenge and risked lifting inflation expectations further. Meanwhile, minutes from the RBA’s May meeting showed policymakers expect underlying inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027, only returning to the midpoint of the 2–3% target range by mid-2028. Earlier data also highlighted lingering inflationary pressures, with Australia’s annual inflation rate accelerating to 4.6% in March, the highest since September 2023 and well above the central bank’s target band. The RBA in May delivered the third rate hikes, bringing borrowing costs to 4.35%, the highest level since January 2025. source: Melbourne Institute

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 5.60 percent in May from 5.90 percent in April of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia averaged 4.38 percent from 1995 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.60 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 2.80 percent in September of 2013. This page provides - Australia Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Australia Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 5.60 percent in May from 5.90 percent in April of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2027 and 2.50 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-04-16 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Apr 5.9% 5.2% 5.4%
2026-05-21 01:30 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
May 5.6% 5.9% 6.3%
2026-06-11 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jun 5.6% 6.5%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Commodity Prices YoY 16.80 15.10 percent May 2026
CPI 102.80 102.44 points Apr 2026
Core Consumer Prices 106.66 106.33 points Apr 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY 3.40 3.30 percent Apr 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 103.33 103.13 points Apr 2026
CPI Transportation 105.42 108.37 points Apr 2026
Export Prices 158.60 157.80 points Mar 2026
Export Prices 0.50 3.20 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation 2.80 3.10 percent Apr 2026
GDP Chain Price Index 105.80 105.00 points Mar 2026
GDP Deflator 105.80 105.50 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 135.50 135.40 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 0.10 0.90 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 5.60 5.90 percent May 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 4.20 4.60 percent Apr 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.40 1.10 percent Apr 2026
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM -0.30 0.60 percent May 2026
PPI 0.40 0.80 percent Mar 2026
Producer Prices 138.20 137.70 points Mar 2026
PPI YoY 3.00 3.50 percent Mar 2026
Rent Inflation 3.50 3.70 percent Apr 2026
Services Inflation 3.50 3.60 percent Apr 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ 0.80 0.90 percent Mar 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI 0.20 0.20 percent Apr 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY 3.50 3.50 percent Apr 2026


Australia Inflation Expectations
In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
5.60 5.90 8.60 2.80 1995 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Australia Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.6% in May 2026 from April’s more than three-year high of 5.9%. Still, concerns over stubborn price pressures persisted after a Reserve Bank official warned that the recent surge in oil prices amid the Iran conflict posed a challenge and risked lifting inflation expectations further. Meanwhile, minutes from the RBA’s May meeting showed policymakers expect underlying inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027, only returning to the midpoint of the 2–3% target range by mid-2028. Earlier data also highlighted lingering inflationary pressures, with Australia’s annual inflation rate accelerating to 4.6% in March, the highest since September 2023 and well above the central bank’s target band. The RBA in May delivered the third rate hikes, bringing borrowing costs to 4.35%, the highest level since January 2025.
2026-05-21
Australia Inflation Expectations Jump to Highest Since Late 2022
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations climbed to 5.9% in April 2026 from 5.2% a month earlier, the highest since November 2022, signaling rising concern over price pressures. The increase came after the Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% in March, following a similar move in February, as inflationary pressures re-emerged from mid-2025. Higher oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, are a key near-term driver, pushing up short-term expectations. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser recently warned that the economy faces a challenging macro backdrop, with persistently high inflation and limited supply capacity heightening the risk of stagflation if energy shocks continue. He noted that inflation remains above target, with annual CPI at 3.7% in February, still outside the central bank’s 2–3% target band. Current projections indicate inflation may only return to target by mid-2027, underscoring the prolonged path to price stability.
2026-04-16
Australia Inflation Expectations Highest in Near 3 Years
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March 2026 from 5.0% in the previous month, marking the highest level since July 2023, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on March 17. The increase followed the central bank’s 25bp rate hike to 3.85% in February. Policymakers acknowledged that price pressures picked up in the second half of 2025 and remain too high. While officials expect part of the recent surge in inflation to fade over time, they warned that a meaningful share reflects underlying pressures that could persist without further policy tightening. The board also noted that price increases have been broad-based across CPI components. As a result, the RBA signaled inflation will likely stay above its 2–3% target band for an extended period, with both headline and core measures still elevated. Current projections suggest inflation may not return to the target range until mid-2027.
2026-03-12