Australia's consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July 2026, down from 5.5% the previous month, marking the lowest reading since January. The decline reflected moderating headline inflation, though still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target. Meanwhile, underlying inflation remains sticky, with the trimmed mean CPI up 3.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since September 2024. Governor Michele Bullock noted that three rate hikes since early 2026 have curbed domestic price pressures and limited spillovers from higher oil and commodity costs. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to restoring price stability, stressing that while inflation accelerated in late 2025 amid supply shocks and energy costs, tighter policy should gradually ease pressures. source: Melbourne Institute

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 4.70 percent in July from 5.50 percent in June of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia averaged 4.38 percent from 1995 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.60 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 2.80 percent in September of 2013. This page provides - Australia Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Australia Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in Australia decreased to 4.70 percent in July from 5.50 percent in June of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Australia is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2027 and 2.50 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-11 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jun 5.5% 5.6% 6.5%
2026-07-16 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jul 4.7% 5.5% 5.5%
2026-08-21 01:00 AM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Aug 4.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Commodity Prices YoY 16.90 18.40 percent Jun 2026
CPI 102.09 102.80 points May 2026
Core Consumer Prices 107.05 106.65 points May 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY 3.60 3.40 percent May 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 103.80 103.33 points May 2026
CPI Transportation 101.36 105.42 points May 2026
Export Prices 158.60 157.80 points Mar 2026
Export Prices 0.50 3.20 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation 3.30 2.80 percent May 2026
GDP Chain Price Index 105.80 105.00 points Mar 2026
GDP Deflator 105.80 105.50 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 135.50 135.40 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 0.10 0.90 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.70 5.50 percent Jul 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 4.00 4.20 percent May 2026
Inflation Rate MoM -0.70 0.40 percent May 2026
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM -0.40 -0.30 percent Jun 2026
PPI 0.40 0.80 percent Mar 2026
Producer Prices 138.20 137.70 points Mar 2026
PPI YoY 3.00 3.50 percent Mar 2026
Rent Inflation 3.60 3.50 percent May 2026
Services Inflation 3.70 3.50 percent May 2026
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ 0.80 0.90 percent Mar 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI 0.40 0.30 percent May 2026
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY 3.60 3.40 percent May 2026


Australia Inflation Expectations
In Australia, Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey measures consumers’ median expectations for price growth over the coming 12 months.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.70 5.50 8.60 2.80 1995 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Australia Inflation Expectations Fall to Six-Month Low
Australia's consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July 2026, down from 5.5% the previous month, marking the lowest reading since January. The decline reflected moderating headline inflation, though still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target. Meanwhile, underlying inflation remains sticky, with the trimmed mean CPI up 3.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since September 2024. Governor Michele Bullock noted that three rate hikes since early 2026 have curbed domestic price pressures and limited spillovers from higher oil and commodity costs. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to restoring price stability, stressing that while inflation accelerated in late 2025 amid supply shocks and energy costs, tighter policy should gradually ease pressures.
2026-07-16
Australia Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since March
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations eased to 5.5% in June from 5.6% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since March and suggesting households are slightly less concerned about future price pressures. The decline comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent policy tightening filters through the economy. Governor Michele Bullock said the three rate hikes delivered since the start of the year have helped curb domestic inflation and limit second-round effects from higher oil and commodity prices. Policymakers have reiterated their commitment to returning inflation to the target corridor of between 2% and 3%, noting price pressures accelerated in late 2025 and remain elevated. Official data showed annual inflation slowed to 4.2% in April from 4.6% in March, though still above the RBA’s 2–3% range. Underlying inflation stayed sticky, with the trimmed mean CPI rising 3.4% yoy, the highest since September 2024.
2026-06-11
Australia Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.6% in May 2026 from April’s more than three-year high of 5.9%. Still, concerns over stubborn price pressures persisted after a Reserve Bank official warned that the recent surge in oil prices amid the Iran conflict posed a challenge and risked lifting inflation expectations further. Meanwhile, minutes from the RBA’s May meeting showed policymakers expect underlying inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027, only returning to the midpoint of the 2–3% target range by mid-2028. Earlier data also highlighted lingering inflationary pressures, with Australia’s annual inflation rate accelerating to 4.6% in March, the highest since September 2023 and well above the central bank’s target band. The RBA in May delivered the third rate hikes, bringing borrowing costs to 4.35%, the highest level since January 2025.
2026-05-21