US PPI Soars the Most in 4 Years

Producer prices in the United States soared by 1.3% from the previous month in September of 2026, the sharpest increase since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022, and the second highest increase on record. It was sharply above market expectations of a 0.5% increase, as the global energy shock from the war in the Middle East drove energy costs for US producers to gain 10.8% on the month, which in turn drove transportation and warehousing (3.4%) and trade (1.4%) costs to rise. Geopolitical tension and adverse weather also raised food prices to a 1.2% increase. The core PPI, which excludes foods and energy, surged by 0.7%. The headline PPI rose 6.3% annually, the most since December of 2022.

US producer prices are expected to rise 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, marking the strongest increase in four months following a 0.4% gain in August. The reading would signal a further acceleration in producer-level inflation for a third consecutive month, amid elevated energy costs. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% in August. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is expected to ease to 5.3% from 5.4%, while core PPI inflation is projected to slow to 4.4% from 4.6%.

Producer prices in the US increased 0.4% mom in August 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in July and in line with expectations. It is the biggest increase in three months, led by a 1.1% jump in prices of goods after declines in each of the previous two months, with diesel fuel jumping 24.1%. Prices for gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil, candy and nuts, and tobacco products also advanced. In contrast, prices for residential electric power fell 0.5%. Meanwhile, services cost edged up 0.1%, led by a 2% rise in prices for truck transportation of freight. Increases were also seen for airline passenger services, legal services, hospital inpatient care, and automobiles retailing. Year-on-year, producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%, slightly above forecasts of 5.3%. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.2% on the month and 4.6% on the year, compared to 0.3% and 4.3% respectively in the previous month and forecasts of 0.3% and 4.6% respectively.