US PPI Set to Pick Up in September, Despite Easing Annual Rates

US producer prices are expected to rise 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, marking the strongest increase in four months following a 0.4% gain in August. The reading would signal a further acceleration in producer-level inflation for a third consecutive month, amid elevated energy costs. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% in August. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is expected to ease to 5.3% from 5.4%, while core PPI inflation is projected to slow to 4.4% from 4.6%.

Producer prices in the US increased 0.4% mom in August 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in July and in line with expectations. It is the biggest increase in three months, led by a 1.1% jump in prices of goods after declines in each of the previous two months, with diesel fuel jumping 24.1%. Prices for gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil, candy and nuts, and tobacco products also advanced. In contrast, prices for residential electric power fell 0.5%. Meanwhile, services cost edged up 0.1%, led by a 2% rise in prices for truck transportation of freight. Increases were also seen for airline passenger services, legal services, hospital inpatient care, and automobiles retailing. Year-on-year, producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%, slightly above forecasts of 5.3%. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.2% on the month and 4.6% on the year, compared to 0.3% and 4.3% respectively in the previous month and forecasts of 0.3% and 4.6% respectively.

US producer prices are expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, marking the strongest increase in three months after remaining unchanged in July, signalling a renewed acceleration in producer-level inflation. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise 0.3% mom, accelerating from the 0.2% increase recorded in July. On an annual basis, headline PPI inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.3%, up from 4.7% in July, while core producer inflation is projected to increase to 4.6% from 4.2%.