US Small Business Optimism Down for 2nd Month

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for a second month to 98.8 in February 2026 from 99.3 in January and below forecasts of 99.7. “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain as they look toward the coming months. High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Also, 15% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 1 point from January. The last time labor quality, reported as the top issue, was this low was in April 2020. 59% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, a decrease of 3 points from January.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 99.3 in January 2026 from 99.5 in December 2025, compared to forecasts of 99.9. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points to a net 16%. In addition, 16% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from December. Also, 13% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, up 4 points. The last time insurance reached this percentage was December 2018. 60% reported capital outlays in the last six months, up 4 points from December and the highest level since November 2023. "While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth. Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales", according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second consecutive month, reaching 99.5 in December 2025, its highest level since August and in line with market expectations. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98, supported primarily by a rise in owners expecting better business conditions, which jumped 9 points to a net 24%. Reports of positive profit trends also improved slightly, rising 3 points from November to a net negative 20%. When evaluating the overall health of their businesses, 9% of owners rated it excellent (down 2 points), 54% rated it good (up 1 point), 34% rated it fair (up 4 points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points). However, plans for hiring, capital outlays, and expectations for higher real sales all declined. Taxes were cited as the most important problem by 20% of small business owners, up 6 points from November and the highest reading since May 2021. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell 7 points to 84, marking its lowest level since June 2024.