US Small Business Optimism Stagnates in April

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US held steady at 95.9 in April 2026, barely changed from March’s 11-month low of 95.8 and slightly below market expectations of 96.1. The index remained below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index dropped by 4 points to 88, though it stayed well above its historical average of 68. The Employment Index declined for a second straight month, while there were reports of both actual and planned price increases rising. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted, “Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street. While small business optimism remains fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to support the private sector in the coming months.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 95.8 points in March 2026, the lowest since April 2025 from 98.8 in February and below forecast of 98.6. The reading is now below its 52-year average of 98, as "the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Also, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its historical average of 68. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points to a net -25% and the net % of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. On the other hand, “the 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners”, Bill Dunkelberg added.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for a second month to 98.8 in February 2026 from 99.3 in January and below forecasts of 99.7. “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain as they look toward the coming months. High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Also, 15% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 1 point from January. The last time labor quality, reported as the top issue, was this low was in April 2020. 59% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, a decrease of 3 points from January.