US Inflation Rate Seen Slowing in October

The annual change in US CPI for October 2026 was not published alongside the November 10 release, following an earlier announcement by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that it would not report 12-month percentage changes for indexes lacking October 2025 data. This follows the federal government shutdown, which prevented the collection and publication of CPI data for that month. Before the release, market analysts had expected annual headline and core inflation to accelerate to 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, from 3.7% and 2.6% in September. By comparison, the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Inflation Nowcasting model had projected annual rates of 3.7% for headline CPI and 2.5% for core CPI. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, headline inflation eased to 0.4% in October, from 0.6% in September, although it remained above market expectations of 0.3%. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation was unexpectedly unchanged at 0.3%, also above forecasts of 0.2%.

The US CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in October 2026, half the 0.6% increase recorded in September, which marked the largest monthly gain since April. Gasoline prices are expected to edge 0.9% lower. Core CPI is also projected to moderate, easing to 0.2% from 0.3%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained. However, the October inflation report will come with an important caveat. The BLS will not publish 12-month percentage changes for October 2026 for indexes for which October 2025 data are unavailable. This is because the October 2025 CPI data were not collected and published amid the federal government shutdown. Consequently, annual inflation rates for both headline and core CPI will probably not be available. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting model was pointing to annual headline and core inflation rates of 3.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months and above market expectations of 3.6%, driven by higher energy prices. Gasoline rose 34.2% yoy, more than 27.4% in August and fuel oil prices increased 74.2%, compared with 52% previously. Inflation also accelerated for shelter, to 3.2% from 3%, but slowed for food to 2.5% from 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months, compared to 0.4% in August and in line with forecasts. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. Recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel also went up while food prices steadied and communication declined. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate went up to 2.6% from 2.4%, more than forecasts of 2.5% while monthly core CPI inflation steadied at 0.3%, the same as in August and defying forecasts it would slow to 0.2%.