Dollar Little Changed

2026-10-08 14:15 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The dollar index was little changed at 102.2 on Thursday, hovering near April 2025 highs, as the greenback remained supported by expectations that the Fed will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Oil prices moved higher again, adding to inflationary pressures and, in turn, reinforcing expectations of further Fed tightening.

Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that most policymakers expect another increase in the federal funds rate this year, although the timing remains uncertain.

Fed Governor Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target, while emphasizing that there is “flexibility” around the pace of increases.

Markets currently price in an around 78% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October, while the odds of a 25bps hike in December stand at around 69%.

Meanwhile, higher government bond yields in Europe continued to weigh on the euro.



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Dollar Little Changed
The dollar index was little changed at 102.2 on Thursday, hovering near April 2025 highs, as the greenback remained supported by expectations that the Fed will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Oil prices moved higher again, adding to inflationary pressures and, in turn, reinforcing expectations of further Fed tightening. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that most policymakers expect another increase in the federal funds rate this year, although the timing remains uncertain. Fed Governor Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target, while emphasizing that there is “flexibility” around the pace of increases. Markets currently price in an around 78% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October, while the odds of a 25bps hike in December stand at around 69%. Meanwhile, higher government bond yields in Europe continued to weigh on the euro.
2026-10-08
Dollar Holds Firm on Hawkish FOMC Minutes
The dollar index held above 102 on Thursday, remaining near its strongest level since April 2025 as the latest FOMC minutes pointed to a hawkish stance among policymakers amid persistent inflation risks. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed that all 19 policymakers supported the September rate hike, while most believed another increase would be appropriate by year-end. Markets broadly expect the Fed to keep policy unchanged this month, while the probability of a December hike currently stands at around 78%. Investors now await the latest weekly US jobless claims data for further insight into the health of the labor market. The greenback also continued to benefit from safe-haven demand as concerns over a potential escalation between the US and Iran, along with ongoing risks to oil flows from the Middle East, kept crude prices elevated and inflationary pressures high.
2026-10-08
Dollar Index at March 2025-Highs
The dollar index traded around 102.3 on Wednesday, its highest level since March 2025, as volatility in oil markets continued to fuel inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Meanwhile, minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed that most Fed officials supported another rate hike this year, although they signalled no urgency to act. The odds of a rate hike in October fell to 17%, from around 70% in the days following the September decision, while the probability of a 25bps hike in December edged up to around 70%. The greenback strengthened broadly, gaining the most against the euro, as political and fiscal concerns in Spain and France weighed on the common currency.
2026-10-07