Dollar Holds Firm on Hawkish FOMC Minutes

2026-10-08 02:02 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The dollar index held above 102 on Thursday, remaining near its strongest level since April 2025 as the latest FOMC minutes pointed to a hawkish stance among policymakers amid persistent inflation risks.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed that all 19 policymakers supported the September rate hike, while most believed another increase would be appropriate by year-end.

Markets broadly expect the Fed to keep policy unchanged this month, while the probability of a December hike currently stands at around 78%.

Investors now await the latest weekly US jobless claims data for further insight into the health of the labor market.

The greenback also continued to benefit from safe-haven demand as concerns over a potential escalation between the US and Iran, along with ongoing risks to oil flows from the Middle East, kept crude prices elevated and inflationary pressures high.



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Dollar Holds Firm on Hawkish FOMC Minutes
The dollar index held above 102 on Thursday, remaining near its strongest level since April 2025 as the latest FOMC minutes pointed to a hawkish stance among policymakers amid persistent inflation risks. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed that all 19 policymakers supported the September rate hike, while most believed another increase would be appropriate by year-end. Markets broadly expect the Fed to keep policy unchanged this month, while the probability of a December hike currently stands at around 78%. Investors now await the latest weekly US jobless claims data for further insight into the health of the labor market. The greenback also continued to benefit from safe-haven demand as concerns over a potential escalation between the US and Iran, along with ongoing risks to oil flows from the Middle East, kept crude prices elevated and inflationary pressures high.
2026-10-08
Dollar Index at March 2025-Highs
The dollar index traded around 102.3 on Wednesday, its highest level since March 2025, as volatility in oil markets continued to fuel inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Meanwhile, minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed that most Fed officials supported another rate hike this year, although they signalled no urgency to act. The odds of a rate hike in October fell to 17%, from around 70% in the days following the September decision, while the probability of a 25bps hike in December edged up to around 70%. The greenback strengthened broadly, gaining the most against the euro, as political and fiscal concerns in Spain and France weighed on the common currency.
2026-10-07
Dollar Index Rises Above 102
The dollar index strengthened to above 102.4 on Wednesday, its highest level since March 2025, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and again reinforced expectations that Fed would need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Investors are also awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes later in the day for further insight into the Fed’s policy outlook, following last month’s 25-basis-point rate hike, the first increase in borrowing costs since 2023. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 78% chance that the central bank will leave rates unchanged this month, while the probability of a 25bps rate hike in December stands at around 69%. The greenback strengthened broadly, gaining the most against the euro, as political and fiscal concerns in Spain and France weighed on the common currency.
2026-10-07