Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.8 6 5.9 6 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -2686.00 -700 -2100 -1200 -2100 -3800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 94 94 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.28
1.31 1.33 1.36 1.38 1.48
Stock Market 15541.85
points
14877 14580 14288 14003 12916
Government Bond 10Y 2.34
percent
2.3 2.48 2.68 2.89 3.92
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 1.70
percent
2.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9
GDP 1529.76
USD Billion
1800 1800 1800 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1869857.00
CAD Million
1893766 1904750 1905384 1910994 1966842
Gross National Product 2153084.00
CAD Million
2150687 2168007 2193993 2200452 2264760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 408291.00
CAD Million
402902 408206 416049 417273 429468
GDP per capita 50231.90
USD
51700 51700 51700 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80
USD
44150 43009 44150 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 27558.00
CAD Million
28329 28477 28269 28164 29181
GDP From Construction 125973.00
CAD Million
125305 127069 127722 128744 131842
GDP From Manufacturing 183668.00
CAD Million
185876 183675 185790 187709 191783
GDP From Mining 147344.00
CAD Million
154139 153814 154281 150586 159257
GDP From Public Administration 109214.00
CAD Million
111012 112033 111344 111617 114935
GDP From Services 1236046.00
CAD Million
1249166 1256633 1259437 1263239 1300060
GDP From Transport 79317.00
CAD Million
80500 81054 80994 81062 83607
GDP From Utilities 40123.00
CAD Million
40101 41633 40946 41006 42267
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent
5.8 6 5.9 6 6.7
Employed Persons 18604.80
Thousand
18509 18441 18426 18443 18100
Unemployed Persons 1142.10
Thousand
1163 1209 1300 1219 1340
Part Time Employment -35.90
Thousand
6.95 3.58 3.77 3.83 3.83
Full Time Employment 68.30
Thousand
17.54 31.3 28.14 28.49 28.52
Employment Change 32.30
Thousand
62.79 -9.97 61.92 55.45 27.21
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
65.5 65.5 65.6 65.6 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent
11.5 12 12 11.5 11.8
Productivity 109.75
Index Points
110 110 110 110 110
Labour Costs 116.91
Index Points
118 118 119 119 123
Wages 24.86
CAD/Hour
24.45 24.6 25 24.6 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.14
CAD/Hour
26.4 26.8 27.4 27.9 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour
14 14 14 15 15
Population 36.96
Million
37.3 37.11 37.3 37.55 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 469795.00
399866 427318 414607 392362 405491
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month
2750 2750 2750 2830 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month
1970 1970 1970 1970 1970
Non Farm Payrolls 16438.80
Thousand
16100 16459 16000 16458 16000
Adp Employment Change 42.80
Thousand
19.79 16.61 17.43 17.22 17.26
Employment Rate 61.70
percent
61.3 61.59 61.7 61.64 62.2
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.13 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.90
Index Points
133 134 134 135 139
Core Consumer Prices 131.20
Index Points
131 132 132 133 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.40
percent
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2
GDP Deflator 116.60
Index Points
116 116 116 116 116
Producer Prices 115.40
Index Points
117 116 117 120 122
Producer Prices Change 1.90
percent
2.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1
Export Prices 120.50
Index Points
121 120 120 120 126
Import Prices 130.00
Index Points
131 130 136 130 139
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
1.9 2.1 2 1.8 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 140.00
Index Points
140 141 142 143 148
CPI Transportation 138.00
Index Points
134 136 139 136 145
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.25
percent
1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.74
percent
1.7 1.69 1.89 2.2 3
Money Supply M0 89764.00
CAD Million
91253 92340 93424 94506 106193
Money Supply M1 967198.00
CAD Million
988034 1003409 1018766 1034085 1200185
Money Supply M2 1588413.00
CAD Million
1610824 1626588 1642517 1658115 1813783
Money Supply M3 2366722.00
CAD Million
2390258 2408517 2436734 2460052 2705112
Banks Balance Sheet 5535444.00
CAD Million
5442705 5439558 5436995 5434481 5406897
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109564.00
CAD Million
104471 107780 112000 107169 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 83306.00
USD Million
84817 85550 85210 85264 85288
Loans to Private Sector 378553.00
CAD Million
383273 385130 370000 386937 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.3 0.34 0.3 0.5 1.5
Foreign Stock Investment 3960.00
CAD Million
15123 11820 16472 14175 14590
Private Debt to GDP 267.03
percent
265 265 265 260 255
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2686.00
CAD Million
-700 -2100 -1200 -2100 -3800
Exports 45941.40
CAD Million
47200 45900 45400 45900 43000
Imports 48627.40
CAD Million
46500 48000 46600 48000 46800
Current Account -16346.00
CAD Million
-14896 -14922 -14683 -14376 -11550
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion
632 632 623 632 628
Terms of Trade 92.70
Index Points
92.32 92.88 88.24 92.4 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 8333.00
CAD Million
9236 9555 9406 9537 9827
Capital Flows 0.00
CAD Million
9.58 9.81 -4 10.04 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
0 0 3 0 4
Crude Oil Production 3918.00
BBL/D/1K
3944 3920 3947 3947 3954
Terrorism Index 2.96
2.5 2.55 2.3 2.61 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 1479351.00
3155400 2906600 2934300 2988100 2971000
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million
87 87 87 87 87
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent
94 94 94 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-0.8 -0.92 -0.8 -1.26 -0.7
Government Budget Value 167.00
CAD Million
999 996 1008 991 996
Government Spending 361512.00
CAD Million
363314 367250 368381 369465 380263
Government Revenues 28666.00
CAD Million
25357 25342 25363 25333 25338
Fiscal Expenditure 26316.00
CAD Million
24358 24346 24342 24342 24342
Military Expenditure 15504.70
USD Million
15500 15606 15713 15703 15753
Asylum Applications 3979.00
Persons
4886 5455 4854 5144 5085
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 59.80
Index Points
56.7 60.33 53 59.96 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.70
52.9 54 55 53.34 52
Industrial Production 2.38
percent
2.1 2.19 1.9 2.15 0.9
Industrial Production Mom -0.74
percent
0.4 0.12 0.7 0.12 0.5
Manufacturing Production 3.16
percent
4.4 2.79 0.9 2.79 0.7
Capacity Utilization 86.00
percent
83.1 85.16 82 85.16 83
New Orders 58376592.00
CAD THO
54074611 54616766 53269502 54303271 54036603
Changes in Inventories 13807.00
CAD Million
13816 16984 13824 16976 13876
Bankruptcies 191.00
Companies
212 209 209 209 209
Corporate Profits 78144.00
CAD Million
78176 80474 64200 80442 70100
Car Registrations 128313.00
179065 196545 185119 171626 176678
Leading Economic Index -0.10
percent
0.3 0.16 0.1 0.17 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps
18679 19160 19635 20107 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP
16029189 16042632 16037206 16019532 15468799
Steel Production 1030.00
Thousand Tonnes
1069 1073 1075 1076 1077
Mining Production 0.74
percent
3.4 0.75 1 0.75 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points
5.34 5.31 5.34 5.31 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
13 14 13 14 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
85 83 85 83 87
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 8 8 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
20 19 20 20 14
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 56.43
Index Points
52.8 54.47 51.9 54.33 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.50
percent
4.17 4.32 4.41 4.46 4.53
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.00
percent
0.31 0.23 0.41 0.32 0.3
Consumer Spending 1074862.00
CAD Million
1082001 1093944 1095284 1098509 1130613
Disposable Personal Income 1232676.00
CAD Million
1200000 1255017 1259153 1264499 1280694
Personal Savings 4.20
percent
4.16 2.85 4.13 2.88 5
Consumer Credit 601453.00
CAD Million
581000 611542 594000 621030 614000
Private Sector Credit 4178434.00
CAD Million
4259147 4319389 4379653 4439764 5089437
Bank Lending Rate 3.45
percent
2.7 3.64 3.1 3.81 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 100.40
percent of GDP
100 100 99.94 99.83 98.6
Households Debt To Income 172.62
percent
172 172 172 172 172
Gasoline Prices 1.01
USD/Liter
0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.55
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 8167334.00
CAD Thousand
8064441 8228157 8117401 8012148 8085207
Housing Starts 225.21
Thousand
223 221 220 220 220
Housing Index 103.10
Index Points
102 101 121 99.01 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent
66 66.43 65 66.63 63
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent
26.5 26.5 26.5 27 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent
13.81 13.81 13.81 14 14
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent
7.58 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent
6.83 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm
35.21 54.09 36.32 25.6 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius
1.54 9.76 -11.62 -20.46 -5.36