Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.8 6 5.9 6 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -1902.20 -25050 -26566 -1200 -2182 -3800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 94 94 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.33
 1.31 1.33 1.36 1.38 1.48
Stock Market 16450.14
points		 14877 14580 14288 14003 12916
Government Bond 10Y 2.13
percent		 2.3 2.48 2.68 2.89 3.92
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent		 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent		 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 1.30
percent		 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9
GDP 1529.76
USD Billion		 1800 1800 1800 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1877388.00
CAD Million		 1898300 1898632 1910436 1916813 1972057
Gross National Product 2168064.00
CAD Million		 2154900 2159530 2198299 2213593 2269205
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412546.00
CAD Million		 403691 406610 416865 421209 430311
GDP per capita 50231.90
USD		 51700 51700 51700 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80
USD		 44150 43009 44150 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 27951.00
CAD Million		 28384 28366 28325 28538 29238
GDP From Construction 127110.00
CAD Million		 125551 126572 127973 129779 132101
GDP From Manufacturing 183005.00
CAD Million		 186240 182956 186155 186848 192159
GDP From Mining 154987.00
CAD Million		 154441 153213 154583 158242 159570
GDP From Public Administration 110207.00
CAD Million		 111230 111595 111563 112521 115161
GDP From Services 1238862.00
CAD Million		 1251613 1251719 1261909 1264878 1302612
GDP From Transport 80483.00
CAD Million		 80557 80596 81180 82173 83798
GDP From Utilities 39914.00
CAD Million		 40189 41338 40833 40752 42150
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent		 5.8 6 5.9 6 6.7
Employed Persons 18596.20
Thousand 		18608 18644 18687 18729 18100
Unemployed Persons 1151.60
Thousand 		1149 1150 1300 1149 1340
Part Time Employment 23.60
Thousand		 6.47 4.63 3.67 3.64 3.65
Full Time Employment -31.00
Thousand		 16.49 11.36 15.34 16.17 16.31
Employment Change -7.50
Thousand		 11.91 12.61 15.35 16.07 16.49
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.30
percent		 65.5 65.5 65.6 65.6 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10
percent		 11.5 12 12 11.5 11.8
Productivity 109.22
Index Points		 109 109 109 109 109
Labour Costs 117.22
Index Points		 118 118 119 119 123
Wages 25.06
CAD/Hour		 24.45 24.6 25 24.6 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.74
CAD/Hour		 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.9 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour		 14 14 14 15 15
Population 36.96
Million		 37.3 37.11 37.3 37.55 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 469795.00
 399866 427318 414607 392362 405491
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month		 2750 2750 2750 2830 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month		 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970
Non Farm Payrolls 16491.90
Thousand		 16100 16459 16000 16458 16000
Adp Employment Change 2.90
Thousand		 30.66 22.8 23.2 23.18 23.18
Employment Rate 61.50
percent		 61.3 61.36 61.7 61.25 62.2
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent		 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.1 0.12 0.2 0.12 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.40
Index Points		 133 134 134 136 140
Core Consumer Prices 131.00
Index Points		 131 132 132 133 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.30
percent		 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2
GDP Deflator 116.90
Index Points		 117 117 117 117 117
Producer Prices 117.40
Index Points		 116 115 117 119 122
Producer Prices Change 2.40
percent		 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1
Export Prices 123.60
Index Points		 124 124 120 124 126
Import Prices 132.20
Index Points		 132 132 136 132 139
Food Inflation 1.80
percent		 1.9 2.1 2 1.8 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 140.40
Index Points		 141 141 142 143 149
CPI Transportation 139.70
Index Points		 135 136 139 141 145
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.25
percent		 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.75
percent		 1.7 1.69 1.89 2.2 3
Money Supply M0 90131.00
CAD Million		 90884 91929 92975 94018 105286
Money Supply M1 977978.00
CAD Million		 988192 1003651 1019024 1034363 1200701
Money Supply M2 1596330.00
CAD Million		 1606153 1621534 1635945 1650196 1791636
Money Supply M3 2307338.00
CAD Million		 2335382 2351720 2365942 2380036 2520253
Banks Balance Sheet 5473083.00
CAD Million		 5516459 5503679 5501701 5499064 5499044
Central Bank Balance Sheet 110022.00
CAD Million		 109947 110035 112000 110049 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 80777.00
USD Million		 80914 81174 81139 81140 81140
Loans to Private Sector 389526.00
CAD Million		 394160 400509 370000 406773 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent		 0.3 0.34 0.3 0.5 1.5
Foreign Stock Investment 9130.00
CAD Million		 12758 11465 11683 11675 11674
Private Debt to GDP 267.03
percent		 265 265 265 260 255
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1902.20
CAD Million		 -25050 -26566 -1200 -2182 -3800
Exports 48564.40
CAD Million		 47200 48900 45400 48900 43000
Imports 50466.60
CAD Million		 46500 51000 46600 51100 46800
Current Account -19496.00
CAD Million		 -19437 -18672 -19029 -18281 -18933
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent		 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion		 632 632 623 632 628
Terms of Trade 93.50
Index Points		 93.75 93.37 88.24 93.37 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 17792.00
CAD Million		 11036 12521 12761 12627 12673
Capital Flows -51.00
CAD Million		 6.08 8.38 -4 7.21 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes		 0 0 3 0 4
Crude Oil Production 3981.00
BBL/D/1K		 4045 4043 4043 4043 4043
Terrorism Index 2.96
 2.5 2.55 2.3 2.61 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 1883642.00
 2512000 2689500 2242600 2284700 2389500
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million		 87 87 87 87 87
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent		 94 94 94 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP		 -0.8 -0.92 -0.8 -1.26 -0.7
Government Budget Value -10630.00
CAD Million		 -597 -254 -129 -145 -158
Government Spending 364860.00
CAD Million		 364025 365814 369104 372522 381009
Government Revenues 26700.00
CAD Million		 25272 25591 25748 25709 25697
Fiscal Expenditure 34900.00
CAD Million		 25868 25845 25850 25854 25854
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million		 15500 15606 15713 15703 15753
Asylum Applications 3979.00
Persons		 4886 5455 4854 5144 5085
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 62.50
Index Points		 56.7 60.19 53 60.87 52
Manufacturing PMI 56.20
 52.9 54 55 56.13 52
Industrial Production 4.22
percent		 2.1 4.21 1.9 4.23 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.89
percent		 0.4 0.16 0.7 0.12 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.53
percent		 4.4 2.38 0.9 2.36 0.7
Capacity Utilization 86.10
percent		 85.9 85.7 85 85.2 83
New Orders 57385045.00
CAD THO		 57766669 57683066 57680397 57681061 57681132
Changes in Inventories 15288.00
CAD Million		 12392 10477 9181 8410 8000
Bankruptcies 254.00
Companies		 232 230 232 231 231
Corporate Profits 78757.00
CAD Million		 79793 79693 64200 79578 70100
Car Registrations 195806.00
 193335 157092 164168 174719 168514
Leading Economic Index 0.30
percent		 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.18 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps		 18679 19160 19635 20107 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP		 16029189 16042632 16037206 16019532 15468799
Steel Production 1190.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1154 1134 1122 1116 1108
Mining Production 8.00
percent		 3.4 7.06 1 7.06 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points		 5.34 5.31 5.34 5.31 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
 13 14 13 14 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points		 85 83 85 83 87
Corruption Rank 8.00
 8 8 8 8 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
 20 19 20 20 14
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.83
Index Points		 52.8 55.32 51.9 55.16 53.8
Retail Sales MoM -1.20
percent		 0.45 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 1.60
percent		 2.76 3.37 3.83 4.11 4.52
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10
percent		 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.3
Consumer Spending 1077010.00
CAD Million		 1084120 1089667 1097434 1099627 1132832
Disposable Personal Income 1242592.00
CAD Million		 1200000 1260421 1269713 1278975 1379478
Personal Savings 4.40
percent		 4.03 3.85 4 4.02 5
Consumer Credit 603600.00
CAD Million		 581000 610826 594000 620106 614000
Private Sector Credit 4212303.00
CAD Million		 4250159 4306971 4364604 4422238 5045315
Bank Lending Rate 3.45
percent		 2.7 3.64 3.1 3.81 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 100.20
percent of GDP		 99.58 99.44 99.49 99.21 98.84
Households Debt To Income 170.20
percent		 171 173 173 171 173
Gasoline Prices 1.06
USD/Liter		 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.55
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 7810678.00
CAD Thousand		 7995219 7986687 7995589 7994615 7994721
Housing Starts 195.61
Thousand		 205 205 205 205 205
Housing Index 103.10
Index Points		 103 103 121 103 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent		 66 66.43 65 66.63 63
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent		 26.5 26.5 26.5 27 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent		 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent		 13.81 13.81 13.81 14 14
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent		 7.58 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent		 6.83 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm		 35.21 54.09 36.32 25.6 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius		 1.54 9.76 -11.62 -20.46 -5.36