Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Canadian economy is expected to pick up steam in 2017 amid robust consumer spending; rising exports due to improving global demand and a weaker currency; and expansionary fiscal stimulus including spending on infrastructure projects and child benefits. The inflation rate will likely remain around 2 percent in 2017 as oil prices steady while the Canadian dollar is seen weakening against the USD as the Fed tightens. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave the key rate on hold at 0.5 percent until 2018. However, the adoption of further protectionist measures in the US like recently introduced tariffs on Canadian exports of softwood lumber would undermine growth as the US are Canada's main export partner, accounting for more than 70 percent of total sales. This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -134.70 1600 900 -1200 -1100 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 91.50 93.1 93.1 93.1 94 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.41 1.39 1.61 [+]
Stock Market 15435.13 15400 15200 14800 14900 12400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.41 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.94 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 2 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 2.60 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1552.80 1600 1600 1600 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1811213.00 1822000 1828000 1841000 1845000 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2038616.00 2075199 2085945 2096946 2109437 2258551 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 378167.00 389000 39100 396224 372999 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50108.07 51300 51300 51300 51700 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42983.10 43250 43250 43250 44150 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 28017.00 27703 27681 27684 27686 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 119687.00 121261 122028 122704 123355 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 178822.00 180414 180882 181101 181208 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 142135.00 141341 141348 141337 141337 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 108128.00 108495 108736 108961 109173 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1205930.00 1214514 1220700 1226880 1233057 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 76814.00 77261 77632 78001 78371 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 36659.00 36769 36779 36780 36780 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18311.20 18340 18374 18402 18424 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1265.00 1380 1370 1360 1219 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 34.30 3.51 5.1 4.42 4.45 4.45 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment -31.20 20.62 14.6 12.39 12.37 12.44 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 3.20 13.44 15.66 16.05 16.39 16.72 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.60 65.8 66 66.2 66.3 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.70 12.6 12.9 12.9 13 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 108.04 0 107 109 109 110 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 116.36 117 117 118 118 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.23 24.21 24.25 24.24 24.24 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 25.75 26.01 26.05 26.16 26.25 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 36.9 36.9 37.3 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 1777.70 1782 1783 1783 1783 1783 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1514.65 1515 1515 1515 1515 1515 CAD/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16136.70 16100 16100 16300 16100 16000 Thousand [+]
Job Vacancies 374895.00 323791 358904 385189 323174 234656 [+]
Employment Rate 61.40 61.5 61.4 61.4 61.3 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.40 133 134 135 137 152 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.40 131 132 133 135 154 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.10 1.7 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 114.20 115 116 116 116 121 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 114.00 114 115 115 116 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.10 4.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.20 122 123 119 123 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 132.90 134 131 133 134 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.10 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 1 3.4 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 137.90 138 139 139 140 145 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 133.20 132 131 131 132 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.89 0.9 0.87 0.88 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 85007.00 86050 87069 88086 89101 100126 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 912147.00 929478 946903 964299 981664 1170753 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1518600.00 1543809 1569446 1594894 1620195 1888894 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2259187.00 2293969 2325988 2357355 2388452 2698639 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5204390.00 5140000 5177373 5170912 5171532 5169649 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 105106.00 107000 107000 108000 105405 127000 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 84710.00 84688 84583 84576 84576 84576 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 349759.00 345000 350000 365000 359327 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 15131.00 12037 14260 13907 13992 13977 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 268 261 272 273 278 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -134.70 1600 900 -1200 -1100 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 46977.20 46900 47000 47300 47500 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 47111.90 45300 47000 48500 48600 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -10726.00 -12025 -12890 -12867 -12487 -12607 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 615.99 620 620 620 618 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 91.20 91.43 91.51 88.45 91.53 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 9741.00 9626 9076 9132 9261 9198 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows 0.00 -4 -5 -5 -7.61 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 2 2 2 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3840.00 3835 3815 3814 3815 3815 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 251 194 138 144 171 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.52 2.3 2.37 2.3 2.28 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1670640.00 2665409 2524786 2056130 2261123 2304427 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 91.50 93.1 93.1 93.1 94 93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.10 -1 -1 -1 -0.8 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -10388.00 -900 -750 -312 -2317 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 351614.00 353748 354809 355865 356916 368203 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 25113.00 24485 24601 24607 24575 24575 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 33158.00 24910 24826 24817 24822 24824 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 17209.90 17255 17158 17061 17097 17139 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2177 2220 2208 2202 2205 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 62.40 61 59 57.4 57 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.90 54 53 52 53 52 [+]
Industrial Production 3.23 1.1 1 1.3 1.5 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.42 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.61 1.4 1.2 1.5 1 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.20 82.2 81.2 81.5 81.6 83 percent [+]
New Orders 55417493.00 54767988 54874473 54832748 54848909 54844687 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories -4365.00 366 1382 2677 3518 4491 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 229.00 230 226 226 226 226 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 73337.00 71343 71822 61300 72028 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 190744.00 188272 150428 163733 169796 164862 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Mining Production 6.42 3 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 1140.00 1120 1103 1092 1086 1079 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.27 5.27 5.27 5.27 5.34 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 15.00 15 15 15 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 84 84 85 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 21 21 21 20 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 52.32 51.8 50.9 52.3 51.1 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 0.3 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.90 5.9 5.31 4.97 4.77 4.49 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.20 0.2 0.2 0.34 0.34 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1034553.00 1044666 1048873 1052604 1056023 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1190700.00 1220000 1190000 1170000 1200000 1328068 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.80 5.63 5.79 5.66 5.66 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 566088.00 567000 567000 573000 578000 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3863993.00 3922249 3966899 4011956 4057039 4544966 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.70 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 100.60 103 103 103 103 105 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 169.41 171 171 172 172 177 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.87 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.87 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 7001634.00 7269178 7251557 7248461 7246226 7246644 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 214.10 180 180 214 213 211 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 100.70 118 118 119 102 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 66 66 65 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 31 32 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.41 14.43 14.43 14.41 14.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.6 7.59 7.58 7.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.84 percent [+]