Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -625.50 -26010 -1200 -358 -350 -3800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 94 93 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.31
 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.53
Stock Market 16306.03
points		 15951 15645 15344 15050 13927
Government Bond 10Y 2.31
percent		 2.28 2.43 2.58 2.75 3.54
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent		 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent		 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 1.30
percent		 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.9
GDP 1653.04
USD Billion		 1800 1800 2000 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1877388.00
CAD Million		 1898632 1910436 1916813 1918691 1972057
Gross National Product 2168064.00
CAD Million		 2159530 2198299 2213593 2215761 2269205
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412546.00
CAD Million		 406610 416865 421209 421622 430311
GDP per capita 51315.89
USD		 51700 51700 52200 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 44017.59
USD		 44150 44150 44700 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 28022.00
CAD Million		 28454 28513 28397 28638 29433
GDP From Construction 127015.00
CAD Million		 126683 127582 129768 129809 131697
GDP From Manufacturing 184119.00
CAD Million		 182620 186978 186881 188170 193009
GDP From Mining 159334.00
CAD Million		 154316 155278 158811 162839 160286
GDP From Public Administration 109437.00
CAD Million		 111600 111688 112013 111845 115291
GDP From Services 1244730.00
CAD Million		 1250272 1260119 1264808 1272114 1300764
GDP From Transport 80628.00
CAD Million		 80617 81166 82106 82402 83784
GDP From Utilities 39433.00
CAD Million		 41334 40840 40763 40301 42157
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent		 6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7
Employed Persons 18682.10
Thousand 		18674 18722 18768 18814 18100
Unemployed Persons 1160.40
Thousand 		1202 1300 1216 1219 1340
Part Time Employment 82.00
Thousand		 5.68 3.62 3.62 3.65 3.65
Full Time Employment -28.00
Thousand		 10.25 14.89 15.84 15.97 16.01
Employment Change 54.10
Thousand		 15.13 17.16 17.25 17.33 17.35
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.40
percent		 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.6 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10
percent		 12 12 11.5 11.71 11.8
Productivity 109.22
Index Points		 109 109 109 109 109
Labour Costs 117.22
Index Points		 118 119 119 119 123
Wages 24.84
CAD/Hour		 24.6 25 24.6 24.86 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.26
CAD/Hour		 26.8 27.4 27.9 25.27 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour		 14 14 15 14.54 15
Population 36.96
Million		 37.55 37.3 37.77 37.84 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 462280.00
 459784 459626 459661 459653 459655
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month		 2750 2750 2830 2834 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month		 2048 2057 2047 2038 2028
Non Farm Payrolls 16540.30
Thousand		 16637 16000 16754 16811 16000
Adp Employment Change -10.50
Thousand		 44.22 19.51 5.07 46.04 30.88
Employment Rate 61.60
percent		 61.41 61.7 61.32 61.3 62.2
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent		 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.12 0.2 0.12 0.12 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.60
Index Points		 134 134 136 137 140
Core Consumer Prices 131.20
Index Points		 132 132 133 133 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.30
percent		 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.29 2.2
GDP Deflator 116.90
Index Points		 117 117 117 117 117
Producer Prices 119.40
Index Points		 118 121 122 125 130
Producer Prices Change 5.10
percent		 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.1
Export Prices 126.60
Index Points		 125 120 125 125 126
Import Prices 137.30
Index Points		 135 136 135 135 139
Food Inflation 1.40
percent		 2.1 2 1.8 1.9 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 140.50
Index Points		 141 142 143 144 149
CPI Transportation 140.50
Index Points		 136 139 141 144 145
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.95
percent		 1.69 1.89 2.2 1.7 3
Money Supply M0 90890.00
CAD Million		 91949 92997 94041 95082 105331
Money Supply M1 981699.00
CAD Million		 994380 1008383 1022360 1036294 1173368
Money Supply M2 1607547.00
CAD Million		 1614732 1626950 1639070 1650931 1757359
Money Supply M3 2329151.00
CAD Million		 2336216 2346603 2356865 2366917 2457070
Banks Balance Sheet 5603434.00
CAD Million		 5615188 5611379 5613606 5610753 5611341
Central Bank Balance Sheet 111556.00
CAD Million		 111326 112000 111372 111373 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81817.00
USD Million		 81988 81927 81932 81932 81932
Loans to Private Sector 401763.00
CAD Million		 417094 370000 436470 445654 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent		 0.34 0.3 0.5 0.58 1.5
Foreign Stock Investment 2180.00
CAD Million		 11292 10559 10617 10596 10600
Private Debt to GDP 267.03
percent		 265 265 260 260 255
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -625.50
CAD Million		 -26010 -1200 -358 -350 -3800
Exports 50698.90
CAD Million		 51200 45400 51400 51500 43000
Imports 51324.40
CAD Million		 51600 46600 51800 51800 46800
Current Account -19496.00
CAD Million		 -18672 -19029 -18281 -19199 -18933
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent		 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion		 639 623 648 651 628
Terms of Trade 92.20
Index Points		 92.71 88.24 92.51 92.49 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 17792.00
CAD Million		 12867 13150 13001 13201 13038
Capital Flows -51.00
CAD Million		 8.38 -4 7.21 7.38 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes		 -0.05 3 -0.07 -0.06 4
Crude Oil Production 4297.00
BBL/D/1K		 4155 4151 4152 4151 4152
Terrorism Index 2.96
 2.55 2.3 2.61 2.63 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 2607284.00
 2689500 2242600 2284700 2493200 2389500
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million		 156 175 182 188 143
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent		 94 94 93 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP		 -0.8 -0.8 -0.97 -1.03 -0.7
Government Budget Value 641.00
CAD Million		 613 791 771 735 740
Government Spending 364860.00
CAD Million		 365814 369104 372522 372887 381009
Government Revenues 25717.00
CAD Million		 26018 26120 26055 26020 26025
Fiscal Expenditure 22809.00
CAD Million		 25405 25276 25284 25285 25285
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million		 20084 20557 20576 20594 20304
Asylum Applications 5187.00
Persons		 4807 4856 4850 4848 4849
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.80
Index Points		 60.87 53 61.27 61.2 52
Manufacturing PMI 56.90
 54 55 56.64 56.62 52
Industrial Production 3.60
percent		 3.91 1.9 3.82 3.82 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.53
percent		 0.19 0.7 0.13 0.13 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.32
percent		 2.1 0.9 2.02 1.99 0.7
Capacity Utilization 86.10
percent		 85.7 85 85.2 85 83
New Orders 60233514.00
CAD THO		 59470056 59310635 59352075 59335382 59339941
Changes in Inventories 15288.00
CAD Million		 10477 9181 8410 8050 8000
Bankruptcies 221.00
Companies		 231 233 233 233 233
Corporate Profits 78757.00
CAD Million		 79693 64200 79578 79491 70100
Car Registrations 220264.00
 156323 160726 181701 171948 171422
Leading Economic Index 0.50
percent		 0.2 0.1 0.19 0.18 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps		 19160 19635 20107 20573 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP		 16212180 16349225 16540539 16644885 17626330
Steel Production 985.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1054 1064 1070 1074 1078
Mining Production 6.38
percent		 6.66 1 6.67 6.67 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points		 5.28 5.34 5.32 5.33 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
 14 13 14 14 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points		 82 85 82 82 87
Corruption Rank 8.00
 8 8 7 7 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
 22 20 23 23 14
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.55
Index Points		 54.84 51.9 54.78 54.78 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 2.00
percent		 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.60
percent		 3.91 4.15 4.29 4.37 4.49
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.40
percent		 0.27 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.3
Consumer Spending 1077010.00
CAD Million		 1089667 1097434 1099627 1100704 1132832
Disposable Personal Income 1242592.00
CAD Million		 1260421 1269713 1278975 1288222 1379478
Personal Savings 4.40
percent		 3.85 4 4.02 3.96 5
Consumer Credit 612321.00
CAD Million		 616550 594000 627642 633078 614000
Private Sector Credit 4260331.00
CAD Million		 4290645 4344517 4398668 4452742 4983978
Bank Lending Rate 3.70
percent		 3.64 3.1 3.81 3.88 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 100.20
percent of GDP		 99.44 99.49 99.21 99.22 98.84
Households Debt To Income 170.20
percent		 173 173 171 171 173
Gasoline Prices 1.03
USD/Liter		 1.02 0.97 0.91 0.86 0.45
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 8091547.00
CAD Thousand		 8085364 8102884 8100857 8100893 8100864
Housing Starts 206.30
Thousand units		 230 231 231 231 231
Housing Index 103.20
Index Points		 103 121 103 103 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent		 66.43 65 66.63 66.88 63
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent		 26.5 26.5 26 26 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent		 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent		 13.81 13.81 14 14 13
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent		 7.21 7.21 7.18 7.17 6.99
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent		 6.4 6.4 6.54 6.58 6.53
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm		 54.09 36.32 25.6 39.23 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius		 9.76 -11.62 -20.46 7.71 -5.36