Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.7 1.7 2 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3413.40 -1200 -1100 -750 -1876 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 94 94 90.72 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.27 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.07 [+]
Stock Market 15855.76 15600 15400 15300 15100 13400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.06 2.16 2.18 2.2 2.23 2.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70 2.3 1.9 1.7 3.1 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 4.50 2.1 1.9 2 2.35 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1529.76 1600 1800 1800 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1849280.00 1841000 1845000 1852000 1896287 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2091832.00 2107758 2111883 2114318 2115607 2109606 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 389603.00 396224 390534 389986 389451 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50231.90 51300 51700 51700 50258 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80 43250 44150 44150 42870 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 27021.00 26125 25892 25725 25584 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 120861.00 121194 121131 121040 120939 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 181425.00 182199 182073 181844 181591 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 149108.00 148268 147705 147149 146603 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109185.00 109433 109451 109437 109413 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1224274.00 1232037 1234572 1236085 1236913 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 78670.00 78687 78654 78621 78588 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 39208.00 38739 38567 38402 38244 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18454.10 18481 18495 18502 18504 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1214.10 1360 1204 1206 1210 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment -102.00 3.87 4.51 4.5 4.48 4.47 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 112.00 11.8 14.17 12.91 12.88 12.33 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 10.00 16.67 16.47 16.65 16.7 16.76 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.60 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.1 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.30 12.9 13 13 11.11 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 109.45 110 110 110 110 109 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 114.65 118 113 113 113 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.02 24.09 24.08 24.08 24.07 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 25.69 25.64 25.63 25.62 25.61 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.39 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 37.3 37.3 37.1 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 1777.70 1769 1769 1768 1768 1768 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1514.65 1512 1512 1512 1512 1511 CAD/Month [+]
Job Vacancies 387505.00 387933 393017 385050 374158 388005 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16277.30 16300 16100 16100 16411 16000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.4 61.3 61.3 61.44 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.7 1.7 2 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.24 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.80 132 133 133 131 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.80 131 131 132 130 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.80 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.11 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 115.00 115 115 115 115 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.10 115 116 116 112 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.90 2.2 1.9 2 2.3 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 116.10 119 115 115 115 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 128.40 133 128 128 128 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 1 1.1 1.3 1.2 3.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 138.10 138 138 138 139 138 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 133.20 131 132 132 133 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.43 1.41 0.9 0.9 1.67 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 88188.00 88634 88694 88697 88684 88496 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 943426.00 944504 944463 944250 943901 938346 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1551794.00 1546965 1543752 1540944 1538444 1522552 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2287313.00 2277811 2272850 2269258 2266499 2252698 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109016.00 108000 109043 108888 108737 127000 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5212789.00 5200907 5197866 5195915 5194105 5178002 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 84339.00 84306 84250 84194 84138 83640 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 362445.00 365000 362262 361991 361708 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 9850.00 6786 5561 4855 4528 4232 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 270 271 271 272 272 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -3413.40 -1200 -1100 -750 -1876 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 43629.80 47300 47500 47200 42887 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 47043.20 48500 48600 46500 46716 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -16319.00 -15198 -14504 -14241 -14001 -11494 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.82 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 615.99 620 616 615 614 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 90.40 88.45 90.47 90.46 90.45 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 223.00 6678 6454 6530 6913 7331 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows 0.00 -5 -11.24 -11.43 -11.47 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 0.91 1.31 1.76 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3729.00 3630 3625 3614 3609 3552 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 149 155 160 166 198 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.52 2.3 2.19 2.14 2.09 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4183681.00 2607500 2835900 3177400 3079100 3026500 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 94 94 90.72 93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.10 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.16 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -193.00 -312 -659 -755 -822 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 353717.00 355080 355837 356161 356568 356908 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 26058.00 25069 24794 24540 24294 22351 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 24306.00 22801 22569 22281 22001 19845 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 15504.70 15460 15428 15397 15365 15153 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2286 2270 2258 2248 2217 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 59.60 57.4 57 56.7 56.86 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.00 52 53 52.9 52.95 52 [+]
Industrial Production 5.23 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.89 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.47 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.11 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.73 1.5 1 4.4 1.42 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 85.00 82.5 82.6 83.1 84.39 83 percent [+]
New Orders 53553823.00 52682777 52554116 52487007 52409611 51740218 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories 11072.00 7325 5925 4921 4291 3426 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 197.00 234 239 244 250 295 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 76318.00 61300 72740 71869 71226 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 187257.00 138899 128966 126331 125578 125284 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.00 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.21 0.2 percent [+]
Mining Production 13.20 2.6 1.8 3.4 3.39 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 1125.00 1145 1159 1169 1175 1189 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.35 5.27 5.34 5.34 5.31 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 14.00 15 13 13 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 85 85 84 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 21 20 20 18 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.00 53 52.8 52.8 53.43 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.90 5.77 5.26 4.96 4.79 4.56 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.70 0.42 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1061240.00 1079918 1088652 1096485 1103900 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1213848.00 1170000 1200000 1200000 1248140 1272120 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.60 4.81 4.83 4.89 4.93 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 591781.00 573000 578000 581000 612842 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 4055138.00 4142186 4199215 4250442 4296438 4539958 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.20 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.71 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 100.20 99.17 98.9 98.66 98.44 96.88 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 169.90 170 171 171 171 170 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.91 0.78 0.9 0.9 0.89 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 7542953.00 7692539 7675224 7647376 7620780 7388831 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 217.10 213 209 205 202 187 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 102.90 119 104 104 104 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 65 66 66.8 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 29.04 33 33 29.04 29.03 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5.11 5 5 5.27 5.57 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.36 14.41 14.41 14.31 14.13 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.55 7.58 7.58 7.53 7.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.81 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.7 percent [+]