Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.70 6.4 6.5 6 6.5 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -2540.40 -1100 -750 -1049 -1200 -2800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 94 94 91.35 94 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.24
1.27 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.43
Stock Market 16336.44
points
16079 15791 15509 15231 13182
Government Bond 10Y 2.19
percent
2.18 2.2 2.23 1.69 2.46
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
2.7 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 1.70
percent
2.5 2 1.9 1.8 2.3
GDP 1529.76
USD Billion
1800 1800 1800 1800 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1860679.00
CAD Million
1845000 1852000 1882484 1860000 1900000
Gross National Product 2116304.00
CAD Million
2131477 2135190 2137371 2138488 2133313
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 397398.00
CAD Million
398438 398009 397471 397690 425000
GDP per capita 50231.90
USD
51700 51700 50254 51700 53000
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80
USD
44150 44150 43009 44150 45280
GDP From Agriculture 26825.00
CAD Million
26397 26212 26047 25893 30500
GDP From Construction 123025.00
CAD Million
123176 123108 123016 122916 120000
GDP From Manufacturing 179686.00
CAD Million
178700 178565 178484 178426 180000
GDP From Mining 149829.00
CAD Million
148867 148412 147956 147506 136000
GDP From Public Administration 109884.00
CAD Million
110072 110060 110037 110008 111000
GDP From Services 1231780.00
CAD Million
1236263 1237635 1238376 1238691 1330000
GDP From Transport 78990.00
CAD Million
78989 78954 78919 78884 82200
GDP From Utilities 40098.00
CAD Million
39934 39785 39641 39502 39200
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.70
percent
6.4 6.5 6 6.5 6.7
Employed Persons 18647.50
Thousand
18694 18749 18780 18797 18100
Unemployed Persons 1130.40
Thousand
1140 1143 1149 1300 1340
Part Time Employment 54.90
Thousand
2.38 4.36 4.41 4.39 4.39
Full Time Employment 23.70
Thousand
20.8 17.57 15.13 13.8 12.74
Employment Change 78.60
Thousand
30.5 23.23 20.26 18.72 17.19
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.80
percent
66.3 66.3 66.1 66.4 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.30
percent
13 13 10.94 12.5 11.8
Productivity 108.99
Index Points
109 109 109 109 108
Labour Costs 114.90
Index Points
114 114 114 119 123
Wages 24.34
CAD/Hour
24.28 24.28 24.27 24.27 25.53
Wages in Manufacturing 25.13
CAD/Hour
25.25 25.23 25.22 25.21 26.23
Minimum Wages 11.40
CAD/Hour
11.4 11.4 11.41 11.5 12
Population 36.89
Million
37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 460215.00
363307 400814 418783 401103 400083
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month
2830 2833 2835 2838 2830
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month
2030 2039 2048 2057 2036
Non Farm Payrolls 16348.60
Thousand
16100 16100 16370 16000 16000
Adp Employment Change 59.20
Thousand
26.75 26.75 26.75 26.75 26.75
Employment Rate 62.00
percent
61.3 61.3 62.32 61.7 62.2
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.1 0.1 0.13 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 131.30
Index Points
133 133 132 135 149
Core Consumer Prices 130.30
Index Points
131 132 132 133 142
Core Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2
GDP Deflator 115.20
Index Points
115 115 115 115 115
Producer Prices 114.80
Index Points
116 116 114 118 120
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
1.9 2 2.3 2.1 2.1
Export Prices 119.40
Index Points
120 119 119 120 126
Import Prices 130.30
Index Points
130 130 130 136 139
Food Inflation 1.60
percent
1.1 1.3 1.2 2 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 138.90
Index Points
140 140 140 140 140
CPI Transportation 135.70
Index Points
132 132 136 133 136
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25
percent
1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.66
percent
0.9 0.9 1.85 0.9 2.1
Money Supply M0 88945.00
CAD Million
89205 89241 89237 89222 89055
Money Supply M1 954241.00
CAD Million
964489 969636 973165 975534 977461
Money Supply M2 1574398.00
CAD Million
1598512 1611915 1622166 1629946 1648181
Money Supply M3 2272184.00
CAD Million
2217746 2194377 2179525 2170061 2148204
Banks Balance Sheet 5319307.00
CAD Million
5326938 5325753 5324050 5322314 5308493
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109564.00
CAD Million
108805 108640 108481 112000 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 86625.00
USD Million
86474 86420 86367 86313 85884
Loans to Private Sector 374172.00
CAD Million
382478 384920 385839 370000 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.3 0.3 0.43 0.3 1.5
Foreign Stock Investment 20810.00
CAD Million
7621 6050 5181 4745 4314
Private Debt to GDP 266.89
percent
265 267 269 270 272
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2540.40
CAD Million
-1100 -750 -1049 -1200 -2800
Exports 46205.70
CAD Million
47500 47200 44200 45400 43000
Imports 48746.10
CAD Million
48600 46500 45800 46600 46800
Current Account -19346.00
CAD Million
-17026 -16266 -16120 -15885 -13426
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -3.04 -2.8 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion
624 630 637 623 628
Terms of Trade 91.60
Index Points
91.76 91.67 91.57 90.12 94.74
Foreign Direct Investment 9763.00
CAD Million
7031 7103 7432 7276 7539
Capital Flows -25.00
CAD Million
-11.02 -11.74 -11.55 -4 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
0.28 0.54 0.88 3 4
Crude Oil Production 3960.00
BBL/D/1K
3902 3895 3888 3882 3835
Terrorism Index 2.96
2.39 2.43 2.47 2.3 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 2325263.00
0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 127.00
USD Million
266 227 188 149 198
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30
percent
94 94 91.35 94 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-0.8 -0.8 -1.03 -0.8 -0.7
Government Budget Value -349.00
CAD Million
-1351 -1182 -1142 -312 -312
Government Spending 358066.00
CAD Million
361027 362090 362906 363661 365240
Government Revenues 25466.00
CAD Million
23534 23253 23014 22789 21208
Fiscal Expenditure 23784.00
CAD Million
23090 22812 22531 22257 20338
Military Expenditure 15504.70
USD Million
15078 15205 15333 15460 15153
Asylum Applications 2409.00
Persons
2270 2258 2248 2240 2217
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 60.40
Index Points
57 56.7 56.91 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 54.70
54 52.9 54 55 52
Industrial Production 3.51
percent
1.5 2.1 1.44 1.9 0.9
Industrial Production Mom -0.55
percent
0.4 0.4 0.11 0.7 0.5
Manufacturing Production 3.85
percent
1 4.4 1.85 0.9 0.7
Capacity Utilization 85.00
percent
82.6 83.1 84.09 82 83
New Orders 55537690.00
CAD THO
54183333 54129009 54043983 53966482 53350654
Changes in Inventories 17065.00
CAD Million
10285 7920 6219 5133 3574
Bankruptcies 250.00
Companies
239 246 252 258 298
Corporate Profits 80312.00
CAD Million
78327 77902 77152 64200 70100
Car Registrations 161879.00
133400 127938 126315 125818 125601
Leading Economic Index 0.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps
17262 17175 17331 17439 16595
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP
15992916 16029189 16042632 16037206 15700436
Steel Production 1315.00
Thousand Tonnes
1231 1220 1211 1206 1194
Mining Production 5.81
percent
1.8 3.4 2.72 1 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points
5.34 5.34 5.31 5.34 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
13 13 13 13 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
85 85 83 85 87
Corruption Rank 9.00
8 8 9 8 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
20 20 19 20 14
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.12
Index Points
52.8 52.8 53.51 51.9 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 1.50
percent
0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 6.70
percent
5.41 5.06 4.85 4.73 4.57
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.80
percent
0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3
Consumer Spending 1071880.00
CAD Million
1090765 1099175 1106965 1114249 1110000
Disposable Personal Income 1208252.00
CAD Million
1200000 1200000 1226039 1228305 1234718
Personal Savings 2.60
percent
3.53 3.43 3.48 3.55 5
Consumer Credit 601375.00
CAD Million
578000 581000 614464 594000 614000
Private Sector Credit 4129187.00
CAD Million
4211247 4267916 4320393 4368936 4641823
Bank Lending Rate 3.20
percent
2.7 2.7 3.55 3.1 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 100.50
percent of GDP
101 101 101 101 99.75
Households Debt To Income 173.34
percent
175 177 178 178 181
Gasoline Prices 0.94
USD/Liter
0.94 0.93 0.93 0.81 1.15
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Building Permits 7657343.00
CAD Thousand
7804892 7789980 7762649 7737082 7537389
Housing Starts 216.98
Thousand
218 213 209 205 189
Housing Index 103.30
Index Points
104 104 104 121 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent
65 66 66.16 65 63
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent
26.5 26.5 27 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 29 29 29
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 6
Social Security Rate 14.41
percent
14.41 14.41 14 14 14
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent
7.58 7.58 7.56 7.55 7.44
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83
percent
6.83 6.83 6.81 6.81 6.7
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm
25.55 35.21 54.09 36.32 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius
-20.41 1.54 9.76 -11.62 -5.36