Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.90 5.9 6 5.9 5.9 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 2 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 526.10 -1700 -1151 -400 -3000 3200 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 93 93 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.30
 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.31 1.34
Stock Market 15409.47
points		 16025 15918 15813 15710 15300
Government Bond 10Y 2.50
percent		 2.54 2.59 2.64 2.69 2.91
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent		 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.7 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 2.90
percent		 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.28 1.9
GDP 1653.04
USD Billion		 1800 2000 2000 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1891153.00
CAD Million		 1860000 1928484 1940323 1959463 1900000
Gross National Product 2195332.00
CAD Million		 2196396 2227189 2252411 2230028 2267240
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412095.00
CAD Million		 397690 422278 422809 420114 425000
GDP per capita 51315.89
USD		 51700 52200 52200 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 44017.59
USD		 44150 44700 44700 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 27850.00
CAD Million		 28535 28632 28801 29359 30500
GDP From Construction 127079.00
CAD Million		 127597 130642 131132 130746 120000
GDP From Manufacturing 186382.00
CAD Million		 186878 188527 188893 188576 180000
GDP From Mining 157696.00
CAD Million		 157001 159836 161786 160397 136000
GDP From Public Administration 110842.00
CAD Million		 111811 113077 113667 115142 111000
GDP From Services 1250550.00
CAD Million		 1260757 1272835 1281144 1290325 1330000
GDP From Transport 81412.00
CAD Million		 81139 82466 83044 83206 82200
GDP From Utilities 40200.00
CAD Million		 40815 40834 40162 42654 39200
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent		 5.9 6 5.9 5.9 6.7
Employed Persons 18693.80
Thousand 		18744 18794 18842 18889 18100
Unemployed Persons 1171.10
Thousand 		1300 1174 1174 1174 1340
Part Time Employment 80.20
Thousand		 3.19 3.37 3.7 3.73 3.73
Full Time Employment -16.90
Thousand		 13.62 13.72 14.21 14.31 14.41
Employment Change 63.30
Thousand		 19.01 19.01 19.01 19.01 19.01
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.40
percent		 65.6 65.6 65.2 65.1 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent		 12 11.5 10.97 10.97 11.8
Productivity 109.99
Index Points		 111 111 111 111 114
Labour Costs 116.80
Index Points		 119 118 118 118 123
Wages 24.83
CAD/Hour		 25 24.6 24.85 24.85 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 24.90
CAD/Hour		 27.4 27.9 25.12 25.12 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour		 14 15 15 15 15
Population 36.96
Million		 37.3 37.77 37.84 37.91 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 547300.00
 487848 466671 475127 477103 436540
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month		 2750 2830 2834 2831 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month		 2057 2047 2038 2028 2028
Non Farm Payrolls 16632.00
Thousand		 16000 16846 16905 16963 16000
Adp Employment Change 13.60
Thousand		 17.13 33.82 18.82 34.63 21.99
Employment Rate 61.50
percent		 61.7 61.43 61.41 61.41 62.2
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent		 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent		 0.2 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 134.20
Index Points		 135 136 137 138 149
Core Consumer Prices 131.90
Index Points		 133 133 133 134 142
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent		 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2
GDP Deflator 117.60
Index Points		 118 118 118 118 118
Producer Prices 118.90
Index Points		 122 124 126 126 134
Producer Prices Change 5.80
percent		 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.8 4.1
Export Prices 127.40
Index Points		 120 127 127 127 126
Import Prices 136.90
Index Points		 136 137 137 137 139
Food Inflation 1.60
percent		 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 141.20
Index Points		 143 143 144 145 149
CPI Transportation 141.30
Index Points		 133 141 144 140 136
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.75 1.75 2 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 2.11
percent		 2.07 2.07 2.32 2.32 2.57
Money Supply M0 92954.00
CAD Million		 94347 95525 96696 97865 108237
Money Supply M1 987004.00
CAD Million		 1005275 1018814 1032309 1045761 1164887
Money Supply M2 1622646.00
CAD Million		 1645959 1663326 1680447 1697358 1840395
Money Supply M3 2352721.00
CAD Million		 2372606 2389430 2406062 2422459 2560231
Banks Balance Sheet 5552930.00
CAD Million		 5613759 5602288 5603808 5599916 5600969
Central Bank Balance Sheet 115921.00
CAD Million		 112000 116129 116167 116140 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 80683.00
USD Million		 80721 80729 80728 80728 80728
Loans to Private Sector 409985.00
CAD Million		 370000 432552 441322 449816 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent		 0.1 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.6
Foreign Stock Investment 12650.00
CAD Million		 10684 10749 10729 10733 10733
Private Debt to GDP 266.61
percent		 265 260 260 260 255
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 526.10
CAD Million		 -1700 -1151 -400 -3000 3200
Exports 50549.30
CAD Million		 50400 50800 49700 48000 53000
Imports 50023.20
CAD Million		 52100 52000 50100 51000 49800
Current Account -15880.00
CAD Million		 -16262 -15772 -16534 -15706 -16213
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent		 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion		 623 648 651 654 628
Terms of Trade 93.10
Index Points		 88.24 92.76 92.74 92.74 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 11674.00
CAD Million		 12942 12742 12952 12683 12803
Capital Flows 0.00
CAD Million		 -4 6.46 6.72 6.68 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes		 3 -0.05 -0.04 -0.06 4
Crude Oil Production 4123.00
BBL/D/1K		 4122 4123 4123 4123 4123
Terrorism Index 2.96
 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96
Tourist Arrivals 4496465.00
 1611000 2362800 3151900 2531700 2598400
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million		 175 182 188 194 143
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent		 94 93 93 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP		 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Government Budget Value 140.00
CAD Million		 1308 1291 1274 1270 1275
Government Spending 366209.00
CAD Million		 370044 374621 375730 377638 381980
Government Revenues 27112.00
CAD Million		 26406 26365 26348 26344 26348
Fiscal Expenditure 24878.00
CAD Million		 25063 25074 25073 25073 25073
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million		 20557 20576 20594 20612 20304
Asylum Applications 5187.00
Persons		 4667 4680 4675 4675 4676
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.40
Index Points		 59 60 58 57 52
Manufacturing PMI 54.80
 55 55.4 55.25 54.9 52
Industrial Production 3.04
percent		 1.9 2.52 4.1 2.7 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.65
percent		 0.7 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.82
percent		 0.9 3.1 3.15 3.12 0.7
Capacity Utilization 85.50
percent		 85 85.2 85 84 83
New Orders 58632960.00
CAD THO		 59096901 59091676 59088353 59089533 59089250
Changes in Inventories 14112.00
CAD Million		 10016 8984 8447 8219 8248
Bankruptcies 190.00
Companies		 216 213 214 214 214
Corporate Profits 76692.00
CAD Million		 64200 77455 77314 77625 70100
Car Registrations 185214.00
Units		 163489 176729 174193 169854 172291
Leading Economic Index 0.20
percent		 0.1 0 0.2 -0.1 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps		 19635 20107 20573 21035 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP		 16349225 16540539 16644885 16715889 17626330
Steel Production 1020.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1053 1062 1067 1070 1073
Mining Production 4.47
percent		 1 4.51 4.51 4.51 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points		 5.35 5.35 5.35 5.35 5.35
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
 14 14 14 14 14
Corruption Index 82.00
Points		 82 82 82 82 82
Corruption Rank 8.00
 8 8 8 8 8
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
 20 23 23 22 14
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.25
Index Points		 51.9 55.36 55.33 55.32 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent		 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.70
percent		 4.24 4.35 4.42 4.46 4.51
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.90
percent		 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3
Consumer Spending 1083677.00
CAD Million		 1096510 1105759 1111853 1123432 1110000
Disposable Personal Income 1248172.00
CAD Million		 1267401 1276470 1285571 1294633 1375230
Personal Savings 3.40
percent		 3.72 3.67 3.55 3.55 5
Consumer Credit 618362.00
CAD Million		 594000 633473 639609 645687 614000
Private Sector Credit 4299899.00
CAD Million		 4383076 4444301 4505238 4565985 5105068
Bank Lending Rate 3.70
percent		 3.1 3.95 4.2 4.2 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 99.40
percent of GDP		 99.3 99.04 99.03 98.9 98.66
Households Debt To Income 171.31
percent		 173 172 172 174 175
Gasoline Prices 1.01
USD/Liter		 0.81 0.87 0.82 0.77 1.15
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits 8148439.00
CAD Thousand		 8154796 8154865 8154598 8154609 8154600
Housing Starts 189.00
Thousand units		 195 195 195 195 195
Housing Index 103.30
Index Points		 103 103 104 104 106
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent		 65 66.63 66.88 67.12 63
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent		 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent		 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent		 13.81 13.81 13.81 13.81 13.81
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent		 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent		 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm		 36.32 25.6 39.23 38.82 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius		 -11.62 -20.46 7.71 2.97 -5.36