Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Canadian economy is expected to pick up steam in 2017 amid robust consumer spending; rising exports due to improving global demand and a weaker currency; and expansionary fiscal stimulus including spending on infrastructure projects and child benefits. The inflation rate will likely remain around 2 percent in 2017 as oil prices steady while the Canadian dollar is seen weakening against the USD as the Fed tightens. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave the key rate on hold at 0.5 percent until 2018. However, the adoption of further protectionist measures in the US like recently introduced tariffs on Canadian exports of softwood lumber would undermine growth as the US are Canada's main export partner, accounting for more than 70 percent of total sales. This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1085.90 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.25 1.3 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.48 [+]
Stock Market 15128.69 15000 14800 14600 14500 12800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.92 1.86 1.88 1.9 1.91 2.12 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 3.70 2.1 2.1 1.9 2 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1529.76 1600 1600 1800 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1829325.00 1828000 1841000 1845000 1852000 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2077044.00 2108414 2117903 2129209 2142702 2284071 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 387311.00 39100 396224 396217 396066 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50231.90 51300 51300 51700 51700 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80 43250 43250 44150 44150 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 28115.00 28213 28220 28220 28219 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 119902.00 120844 121125 121294 121395 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 177538.00 177625 177520 177485 177470 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 143954.00 143566 143563 143563 143563 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 108563.00 109059 109370 109662 109938 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1216694.00 1227822 1234330 1240831 1247330 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 77999.00 78500 78877 79249 79621 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 37477.00 37443 37448 37449 37449 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18411.00 18494 18561 18615 18658 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1270.30 1370 1360 1246 1243 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 37.10 6.04 4.5 4.42 4.42 4.43 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 8.10 20.3 14.47 13.22 12.73 12.39 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 45.30 28.18 22.35 19.65 18.28 16.83 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.90 66 66.2 66.3 66.3 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00 12.9 12.9 13 13 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 109.64 107 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 115.48 117 118 116 117 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.73 24.64 24.61 24.61 24.61 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 26.55 26.37 26.5 26.58 26.68 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 36.9 37.3 37.3 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 1777.70 1783 1783 1783 1783 1783 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1514.65 1515 1515 1515 1515 1515 CAD/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16136.70 16100 16300 16100 16100 16000 Thousand [+]
Job Vacancies 374895.00 358904 385189 323174 288421 234656 [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.4 61.4 61.3 61.3 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.40 131 132 133 133 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.50 130 131 131 132 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 115.50 116 117 117 118 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 114.50 115 115 116 116 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.90 4.3 2.2 1.9 2 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 122.00 122 119 123 123 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 135.30 131 133 136 136 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.60 0.3 0.6 1 1.1 3.4 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 137.80 138 139 139 139 143 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 131.80 131 131 132 132 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.24 1.4 1.33 0.9 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 86762.00 88119 89252 90384 91513 102656 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 939114.00 966813 987982 1009114 1030207 1238962 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1553176.00 1597532 1630528 1663343 1695988 2013245 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2308350.00 2356032 2397069 2437215 2476943 2854921 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5273643.00 5308817 5317233 5315175 5317800 5316911 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 107598.00 107000 108000 108675 108678 127000 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 84626.00 84516 84543 84541 84541 84541 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 357339.00 350000 365000 371968 375162 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 29459.00 14596 15659 15604 15635 15629 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 261 272 273 274 278 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1085.90 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 48686.30 47000 47300 47500 47200 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 49772.20 47000 48500 48600 46500 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -14053.00 -15016 -14986 -14467 -14850 -14773 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 615.99 620 620 618 618 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 90.20 90.02 88.45 89.98 89.98 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8678.00 9795 9852 9962 9817 9893 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows -51.00 -5 -5 -10.6 -10.34 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 2 0.06 0.09 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3607.00 3753 3756 3758 3757 3757 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 194 138 144 150 171 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.52 2.37 2.3 2.28 2.24 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2602303.00 2522282 1982328 2320743 2495359 2326235 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.10 -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -10388.00 -750 -312 -2317 -2290 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 350974.00 352959 353945 354926 355903 365430 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 25113.00 24601 24607 24575 24572 24575 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 33158.00 24826 24817 24822 24824 24824 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 15504.70 15613 15718 15717 15715 15818 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2220 2208 2202 2204 2205 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 61.60 59 57.4 57 56.7 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.70 53 52 53 52.9 52 [+]
Industrial Production 5.10 1 1.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.10 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.60 1.2 1.5 1 4.4 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.30 83.2 82.5 82.6 83.1 83 percent [+]
New Orders 53269673.00 53961119 54053815 54032434 54040590 54038375 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories 12324.00 9596 9173 7794 6860 5890 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 239.00 237 238 237 237 237 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 73337.00 71822 61300 72028 71849 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 220436.00 150366 162535 175498 166434 167805 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Mining Production 8.30 2.8 2.6 1.8 3.4 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 970.00 1026 1039 1047 1051 1055 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.27 5.27 5.27 5.34 5.34 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 15.00 15 15 13 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 84 85 85 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 21 21 20 20 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 54.49 53.2 53 52.8 52.8 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.30 6.01 5.42 5.06 4.84 4.53 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.2 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1048084.00 1062626 1069588 1074852 1080267 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1190580.00 1190000 1170000 1200000 1200000 1316122 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.30 5.09 4.83 4.75 4.92 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 575397.00 567000 573000 578000 581000 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3947507.00 4079129 4145473 4210306 4274725 4910048 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.70 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.00 102 102 102 103 103 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 169.04 171 171 171 172 175 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.82 0.77 0.78 0.8 0.8 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 7740180.00 7441599 7491148 7482938 7483397 7483096 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 212.70 180 207 206 206 205 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 102.20 118 119 106 107 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 66 65 66 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 32 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.43 14.43 14.41 14.41 14.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.6 7.59 7.58 7.58 7.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.83 6.84 percent [+]