Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Canadian economy is expected to pick up steam in 2017 amid robust consumer spending; rising exports due to improving global demand and a weaker currency; and expansionary fiscal stimulus including spending on infrastructure projects and child benefits. The inflation rate will likely remain around 2 percent in 2017 as oil prices steady while the Canadian dollar is seen weakening against the USD as the Fed tightens. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave the key rate on hold at 0.5 percent until 2018. However, the adoption of further protectionist measures in the US like recently introduced tariffs on Canadian exports of softwood lumber would undermine growth as the US are Canada's main export partner, accounting for more than 70 percent of total sales. This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3040.40 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.23 1.24 1.23 1.21 1.2 1.06 [+]
Stock Market 15292.97 15000 14800 14600 14500 12800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.09 1.86 1.88 1.9 1.91 2.12 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 4.50 2.1 2.1 1.9 2 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1529.76 1600 1600 1800 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1849280.00 1828000 1841000 1845000 1852000 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2091832.00 2100545 2108849 2120501 2134554 2274275 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 389603.00 39100 396224 391470 391311 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50231.90 51300 51300 51700 51700 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80 43250 43250 44150 44150 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 27710.00 27682 27685 27687 27688 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 121752.00 123362 124375 125004 125397 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 180735.00 181525 181935 182144 182249 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 150534.00 149276 149374 149371 149370 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 108691.00 109008 109304 109583 109846 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1221319.00 1227985 1234505 1241016 1247524 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 78572.00 78851 79245 79628 80012 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 38622.00 38634 38641 38643 38644 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18444.10 18460 18492 18510 18519 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1226.60 1370 1360 1213 1215 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 110.40 -25.58 3.7 4.18 4.61 4.57 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment -88.10 17.27 -2.31 7.71 10.2 11.98 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 22.20 21.99 19.03 17.84 17.35 16.84 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70 66 66.2 66.3 66.3 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.50 12.9 12.9 13 13 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 109.45 107 110 110 110 109 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 114.65 117 118 113 113 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.27 24.33 24.29 24.29 24.29 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 25.45 25.58 25.72 25.8 25.9 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 36.9 37.3 37.3 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 1777.70 1783 1783 1783 1783 1783 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1514.65 1515 1515 1515 1515 1515 CAD/Month [+]
Job Vacancies 387505.00 370814 380428 387266 385681 382733 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16150.30 16100 16300 16100 16100 16000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.4 61.4 61.3 61.3 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.40 131 132 133 133 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.60 130 131 131 132 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 115.00 115 115 115 116 119 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.80 115 115 116 116 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.30 4.3 2.2 1.9 2 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 116.10 115 119 114 114 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 128.40 131 133 126 126 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.60 0.3 0.6 1 1.1 3.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 137.70 138 138 139 139 142 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 131.30 131 131 132 132 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.44 1.38 1.47 0.9 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 88130.00 88857 90094 91319 92543 104609 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 944352.00 957367 976647 995698 1014718 1203063 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1552864.00 1567370 1592456 1615548 1638629 1857647 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2285644.00 2310564 2334662 2358745 2379760 2576387 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109937.00 107000 108000 109564 109416 127000 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5276025.00 5288789 5295377 5294263 5296107 5295529 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 85103.00 85080 85018 84963 84908 84359 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 363988.00 350000 365000 377719 381802 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 23954.00 13158 13856 14144 14142 14124 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 261 272 273 274 278 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -3040.40 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 44138.60 47000 47300 47500 47200 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 47179.00 47000 48500 48600 46500 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -16319.00 -16823 -16383 -15768 -15854 -15983 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 615.99 620 620 618 618 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 90.40 90.52 88.45 90.66 90.64 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 223.00 8215 6692 6587 6388 6505 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows 0.00 -5 -5 -10.6 -10.53 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 2 0.06 0.09 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3614.00 3656 3677 3675 3675 3675 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 194 138 144 150 171 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.52 2.37 2.3 2.28 2.24 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3696985.00 2935445 1611339 2358647 2817607 2410948 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.10 -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 16.00 -750 -312 -1556 -1529 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 353717.00 354347 355368 356427 357497 365761 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 24977.00 24750 24770 24785 24784 24783 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 22924.00 24301 24192 24202 24203 24202 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 15504.70 15613 15718 15717 15715 15818 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2220 2208 2202 2204 2205 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 56.30 59 57.4 57 56.7 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.60 53 52 53 52.9 52 [+]
Industrial Production 8.95 1 1.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.49 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.16 1.2 1.5 1 4.4 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 85.00 83.2 82.5 82.6 83.1 83 percent [+]
New Orders 52059885.00 52856193 52832005 52848904 52841013 52842962 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories 11072.00 9506 8606 7503 6713 5759 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 226.00 229 236 235 235 236 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 76318.00 74822 61300 75291 75151 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 184809.00 149971 162746 175205 166158 167619 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Mining Production 25.74 2.8 2.6 1.8 3.4 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 1100.00 1084 1075 1073 1071 1070 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.27 5.27 5.27 5.34 5.34 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 15.00 15 15 13 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 84 85 85 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 21 21 20 20 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 54.33 53.2 53 52.8 52.8 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.30 6.25 5.57 5.16 4.91 4.55 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 0.2 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1061240.00 1070581 1080602 1089220 1097358 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1213848.00 1190000 1170000 1200000 1200000 1336211 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.60 4.94 4.71 4.59 4.75 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 589714.00 567000 573000 578000 581000 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 4037569.00 4087776 4157764 4224992 4291454 4945901 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.95 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.00 102 102 102 103 103 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 169.90 171 171 171 172 175 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.90 0.77 0.78 0.91 0.9 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 7921561.00 7919615 7901892 7875000 7848404 7590602 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 223.23 180 213 209 205 187 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 102.80 118 119 104 105 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 66 65 66 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 32 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.43 14.43 14.41 14.41 14.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.6 7.59 7.58 7.58 7.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.83 6.84 percent [+]