Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Canadian economy is expected to pick up steam in 2017 amid robust consumer spending; rising exports due to improving global demand and a weaker currency; and expansionary fiscal stimulus including spending on infrastructure projects and child benefits. The inflation rate will likely remain around 2 percent in 2017 as oil prices steady while the Canadian dollar is seen weakening against the USD as the Fed tightens. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave the key rate on hold at 0.5 percent until 2018. However, the adoption of further protectionist measures in the US like recently introduced tariffs on Canadian exports of softwood lumber would undermine growth as the US are Canada's main export partner, accounting for more than 70 percent of total sales. This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.30 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3601.90 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.26 1.3 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.48 [+]
Stock Market 14952.33 15000 14800 14600 14500 12800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.87 1.86 1.88 1.9 1.91 2.12 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 3.70 2.1 2.1 1.9 2 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1529.76 1600 1600 1800 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1829325.00 1828000 1841000 1845000 1852000 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2077044.00 2108414 2117903 2129209 2142702 2284071 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 387311.00 39100 396224 396217 396066 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50231.90 51300 51300 51700 51700 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80 43250 43250 44150 44150 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 28342.00 28614 28630 28627 28626 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 118690.00 117839 117648 117533 117444 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 179916.00 180916 181249 181428 181519 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 151064.00 150419 150538 150532 150533 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 108581.00 109021 109322 109606 109873 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1218705.00 1227702 1234203 1240697 1247188 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 78126.00 78605 78993 79376 79758 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 38182.00 38074 38072 38072 38072 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.30 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18421.90 18466 18521 18564 18600 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1246.80 1370 1360 1219 1215 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment -24.30 8.3 3.99 4.44 4.46 4.46 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 35.10 23.07 15.7 14.07 13.09 12.33 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 10.90 22.87 20.08 18.4 17.72 16.97 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70 66 66.2 66.3 66.3 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10 12.9 12.9 13 13 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 109.64 107 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 115.48 117 118 116 117 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.31 24.39 24.34 24.35 24.35 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 25.19 25.79 26 26.06 26.17 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 36.9 37.3 37.3 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 1777.70 1783 1783 1783 1783 1783 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1514.65 1515 1515 1515 1515 1515 CAD/Month [+]
Job Vacancies 387505.00 370814 380428 387266 385681 382733 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16150.30 16100 16300 16100 16100 16000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.4 61.4 61.3 61.3 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.40 131 132 133 133 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.60 130 131 131 132 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 115.50 116 117 117 118 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 113.70 115 115 116 116 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.30 4.3 2.2 1.9 2 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 119.50 119 119 119 119 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 133.70 131 133 134 134 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.60 0.3 0.6 1 1.1 3.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 137.70 138 138 139 139 142 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 131.30 131 131 132 132 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.30 1.35 1.26 0.9 0.9 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 87470.00 88514 89703 90883 92061 103683 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 944780.00 965645 986561 1007442 1028285 1234589 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1557431.00 1586351 1616036 1645456 1674700 1957366 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2301947.00 2336827 2367721 2401508 2433105 2729028 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 111005.00 107000 108000 112859 112873 127000 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5276025.00 5288789 5295377 5294263 5296107 5295529 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 84948.00 84916 84934 84931 84931 84931 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 359716.00 350000 365000 371923 375110 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -923.00 13158 13856 14144 14142 14124 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 261 272 273 274 278 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -3601.90 900 -1200 -1100 -750 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 46512.60 47000 47300 47500 47200 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 50114.50 47000 48500 48600 46500 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -14053.00 -15016 -14986 -14467 -14850 -14773 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 615.99 620 620 618 618 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 89.40 88.94 88.45 88.78 88.78 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8678.00 9795 9852 9962 9817 9893 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows -51.00 -5 -5 -10.6 -10.34 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 2 0.06 0.09 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3443.00 3651 3671 3669 3669 3669 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 194 138 144 150 171 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.52 2.37 2.3 2.28 2.24 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3696985.00 2935445 1611339 2358647 2817607 2410948 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 93.1 94 94 93 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.10 -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 377.00 -750 -312 -1727 -1712 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 350974.00 352959 353945 354926 355903 365430 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 25138.00 24642 24724 24725 24718 24717 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 22699.00 24546 24436 24442 24444 24444 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 15504.70 15613 15718 15717 15715 15818 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2220 2208 2202 2204 2205 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 60.00 59 57.4 57 56.7 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.50 53 52 53 52.9 52 [+]
Industrial Production 8.95 1 1.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.49 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.16 1.2 1.5 1 4.4 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.30 83.2 82.5 82.6 83.1 83 percent [+]
New Orders 52059885.00 52856193 52832005 52848904 52841013 52842962 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories 12324.00 9596 9173 7794 6860 5890 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 284.00 249 251 251 250 250 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 73337.00 71822 61300 72028 71849 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 207008.00 149971 162746 175205 166158 167619 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.60 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Mining Production 25.74 2.8 2.6 1.8 3.4 1.3 percent [+]
Steel Production 970.00 1026 1039 1047 1051 1055 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.27 5.27 5.27 5.34 5.34 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 15.00 15 15 13 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 84 85 85 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 21 21 20 20 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.61 53.2 53 52.8 52.8 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 7.30 6.01 5.42 5.06 4.84 4.53 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.2 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1048084.00 1062626 1069588 1074852 1080267 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1190580.00 1190000 1170000 1200000 1200000 1316122 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.30 5.09 4.83 4.75 4.92 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 585804.00 567000 573000 578000 581000 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 4005748.00 4082484 4150236 4216020 4281266 4924440 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.95 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.00 102 102 102 103 103 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 169.04 171 171 171 172 175 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.88 0.77 0.78 0.87 0.87 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 8062025.00 7719861 7795325 7783596 7786996 7786202 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 222.32 180 214 213 212 210 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 102.40 118 119 104 105 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 66 65 66 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 32 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.43 14.43 14.41 14.41 14.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.6 7.59 7.58 7.58 7.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.83 6.84 6.83 6.83 6.84 percent [+]