Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, slipped slightly to 59.5 in January 2026, just below December’s three-year high of 59.9. The reading suggests that many small businesses remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Confidence strengthened in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, with all four provinces posting index levels at or above 60. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, rose 4.2 points to 52.4, signaling a modest improvement. However, short-term confidence remains relatively subdued across all provinces, ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty at the start of 2026. source: CFIB - Canadian Federation of Independent Business

Small Business Sentiment in Canada decreased to 59.50 points in January from 59.90 points in December of 2025. Small Business Sentiment in Canada averaged 60.06 points from 2000 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 74.10 points in April of 2002 and a record low of 25.50 points in March of 2025. This page provides - Canada CFIB Business Barometer Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Canada CFIB Business Barometer - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Small Business Sentiment in Canada decreased to 59.50 points in January from 59.90 points in December of 2025. Small Business Sentiment in Canada is expected to be 51.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Canada CFIB Business Barometer is projected to trend around 60.00 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-12-18 12:00 PM
CFIB Business Barometer
Dec 59.9 55.8 54
2026-01-22 12:00 PM
CFIB Business Barometer
Jan 59.5 59.9 59.5
2026-02-27 12:00 PM
CFIB Business Barometer
Feb 59.5


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Consumer Confidence 46.40 47.40 points Dec 2025
Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.50 -1.20 percent Dec 2025
CFIB Business Barometer 59.50 59.90 points Jan 2026
Wholesale Sales MoM 2.10 -1.80 percent Dec 2025


Canada CFIB Business Barometer
CFIB’s Business Barometer tracks small business confidence, expectations and operating conditions in Canada. It was revised as of the May 2009 issue. It is based on the same survey question on 12-month future business performance expectations collected annually 1987-2000, quarterly 2001-2008 and monthly since late 2008. The index is a weighted average of response scores: 100 for stronger performance, 50 for same performance, and 0 for weaker performance. The data are not seasonally adjusted.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
59.50 59.90 74.10 25.50 2000 - 2026 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Canada Small Business Confidence Shows Cautious Optimism for 2026
Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, slipped slightly to 59.5 in January 2026, just below December’s three-year high of 59.9. The reading suggests that many small businesses remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Confidence strengthened in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, with all four provinces posting index levels at or above 60. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, rose 4.2 points to 52.4, signaling a modest improvement. However, short-term confidence remains relatively subdued across all provinces, ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty at the start of 2026.
2026-01-22
Canada Small Business Confidence at Over 3-Year High
Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose for a second consecutive month to 59.9 in December 2025 from an upwardly revised 55.8 in November. It is the highest reading since May 2022, led by gains in the health and education, retail and the insurance sectors. On the other hand, the biggest drops in optimism were registered in hospitality and construction, as they are somewhat seasonal industries. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a 3-month outlook, rose by 2.0 point to 48.6, indicating only a modest improvement. Despite the rise in sentiment, more than half of small businesses still report insufficient demand.
2025-12-18
Canada Small Business Confidence at 11-Month High
Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose to 55.5 in November 2025 from an upwardly revised 46.7 in October. It was the highest level since December 2024, suggesting small business optimism recovered somewhat, supported by easing price pressure expectations, despite ongoing challenges and uncertainty in 2025. The short-term optimism index, reflecting a 3-month outlook, also inched up 1.2 points to 46.0. Long-term confidence strengthened across most provinces, except Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, which remained largely unchanged. Sector-wise, confidence improved broadly, with the exception of health and education and agriculture.
2025-11-20