NY Manufacturing Activity Rises the Most in Nearly 5 Years

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 25.5 in October from 7.6 in September, beating forecasts of 10.3 and signalling the strongest improvement in New York manufacturing conditions since December 2021. The new orders index rose 21 points to 23.2, while the shipments index increased 16 points to 13.1, pointing to stronger orders and shipments. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened, while supply availability deteriorated to its lowest since June 2022. The index for number of employees held steady at 10.3, suggesting ongoing modest growth in employment. Price pressures remained elevated, although the prices paid index eased to 59.5 from a four-year high, while the prices received index rose to 30.6. Business optimism moderated, although firms continued to expect growth in orders, shipments and employment. Supply availability is expected to worsen, while both future price indexes rose further and capital spending plans remained modest.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell 13 points to 7.6 in September 2026 from 20.6 in August, missing expectations of 14.75 and pointing to a moderation in manufacturing activity. New orders increased only slightly, while shipments edged lower, and unfilled orders rose as delivery times lengthened significantly. Supply availability also continued to deteriorate. Employment remained solid, with the employee index at 10.6, while the average workweek index climbed 10 points to 17, its highest level in nearly five years. At the same time, inflationary pressures intensified, with the prices paid index rising five points to 63.1, slightly above its recent four-year high, and prices received increasing to 28.1. Despite these cost pressures, manufacturers remained optimistic about the outlook. The future business conditions index stood at 29, with firms expecting stronger orders, shipments and employment in the months ahead.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August 2026 from 15.6 in July and largely beating market forecasts of 11. The data showed that New York State manufacturing activity expanded for a second consecutive month and at its fastest pace since late 2021. New orders and shipments continued to grow solidly, with their indexes at 17.3 and 11.7, respectively. The unfilled orders index rose eleven points to 15.5 and the delivery times index rose eight points to 20.6, indicating significantly longer delivery times. Inventories declined, and the supply availability index fell to -13.4, pointing to worsening supply conditions. Employment and hours worked increased modestly, while input price pressures picked up and selling price growth eased but remained elevated. The outlook remained positive, with firms expecting stronger orders, shipments and employment, despite persistent supply and price pressures. Capital spending plans remained modest.