US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates Further

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.9 in September 2026, the lowest in three months, from 98.7 in August and roughly in line with forecasts of 98. Of the 10 Index components, three rose, six fell, and one stayed unchanged. The Index declined mainly as businesses became less optimistic about future conditions and fewer firms considered it a good time to expand. Reports of labor quality or availability as owners’ single most important problem rose 3 points to 26%, making it the top reported issue for the third consecutive month. The second top issue was inflation, with 20% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up 4 points from August. "Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026 from 99.8 in July and below forecasts of 99.3. Actual sales worsened, with a net negative 9% of owners reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest since November 2025. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem increased to 16%, now tying with taxes as the second top small business issue. Reports of “labor quality or availability” and “labor costs” as owners’ single most important problem eased, with “labor costs” dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. In addition, expectations for better business conditions deteriorated. “Uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges with weakened sales, supply chain disruptions, and inflation pressures. While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 99.8 in July 2026, the highest since August last year, compared to 97.4 in June and beating forecasts of 97.5. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, eight increased, and two decreased. Hiring plans hit their highest level since October 2022 and contributed most to the rise in the Index, with a net 20% of owners planning to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June. In July, the top reported issue was labor quality or availability. Also, both actual and planned price increases dropped notably from June. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points to a net 31% and a net 28% plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June. Real sales expectations and reports of inventory levels as “too low” both fell by 2 points. However, the Uncertainty Index rose 2 points, driven by an increase in owners reporting uncertainty about whether it is a good time to expand and capital expenditure plans.