United States Long Term Unemployment Rate - Forecast

Long Term Unemployment Rate in the United States is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Long Term Unemployment Rate in the United States to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Long Term Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around -0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


Forecast Data Chart
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United States Labour Last Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 157 195 165 193 182 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 170 190 160 188 178 161
Government Payrolls -13 5 12 1 15 11
Manufacturing Payrolls 37 20 10 12 1 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 213 217 217 217 217 217
Continuing Jobless Claims 1755 1733 1730 1729 1728 1728
ADP Employment Change 219 193 160 210 210 150
Employed Persons 155965 156279 156750 157165 157536 154000
Unemployed Persons 6280 6454 6468 6469 6471 6475
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3 0.2 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21
Average Weekly Hours 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.51 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.74 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4
Labour Costs 110 111 111 111 112 114
Productivity 109 110 110 110 110 113
Job Vacancies 6653 6687 6674 6717 6732 6717
Job Offers 6662 6913 6919 6917 6915 6911
Challenger Job Cuts 27122 32103 62300 28897 28203 63500
Wages 22.65 23.35 23.8 24.11 24.49 25.9
Wage Growth 4.89 4.82 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
Wages in Manufacturing 21.43 21.87 22.06 22.38 22.75 24.61
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.6 0.65 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65
Population 326 328 328 329 329 335
Retirement Age Women 66 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.6 60.7
Full Time Employment 129021 129148 129598 129979 130303 131779
Part Time Employment 26992 27153 27139 27138 27139 27139
Living Wage Family 2240 2300 2300 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540 1485 1492 1488 1484 1469
Wages High Skilled 4290 4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Wages Low Skilled 2090 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200