Retail sales in Poland increased 5.6 percent year-on-year in September of 2018, easing from a 9 percent rise in the previous month and below market expectations of 7.6 percent. It was the smallest gain in retail trade since April. Sales slowed for food, beverages & tobacco (1.2 percent from 3 percent in August); fuels (18.4 percent from 21 percent); pharmaceuticals & cosmetics (10.3 percent from 12.5 percent); textiles, clothing & footwear (5.5 percent from 12.1 percent); furniture, appliances & electronics (3.9 percent from 10.1 percent) and newspapers & books (0.9 percent from 4.1 percent). Meanwhile, retail sales fell for motor vehicles & parts (-7 percent from 7.5 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade declined 3.4 percent, after a 0.9 percent increase in August. Retail Sales YoY in Poland averaged 7.23 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in April of 2004 and a record low of -14.40 percent in April of 2005.
Retail Sales YoY in Poland is expected to be 5.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Poland to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.
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