Poland's retail trade increased by 9.7 percent from a year earlier in October 2018, following a 5.6 percent growth in the previous month and beating market expectations of 8.1 percent. Sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts rebounded sharply (7.1 percent vs -7 percent in September) and those of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels continued to grow firmly (21.5 percent vs 18.4 percent). Additional upward pressure came from: food, beverages and tobacco products (3.2 percent vs 1.2 percent); other retail sale in non-specialized stores (6.1 percent vs 4.6 percent); pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment (13 percent vs 10.3 percent); textiles, clothing, footwear (8.6 percent vs 5.5 percent); furniture, radio, TV and household appliances (8.4 percent vs 3.9 percent); newspapers, books, other sale in specialized stores (3.6 percent vs 0.9 percent); and others (15.8 percent vs 9.8 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Poland averaged 7.24 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in April of 2004 and a record low of -14.40 percent in April of 2005.
Retail Sales YoY in Poland is expected to be 5.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Poland to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.