Retail sales in Hong Kong rose 1.4% year-on-year in September of 2018, following a downwardly revised 7.9% increase in August. It is the lowest annual gain in retail sales since June of 2017, partly due to the temporary drag on inbound tourism from typhoon Mangkhut. Also, local consumer spending may have also been dampened by worries about US-China trade conflicts and stock market corrections. Sales fell for food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.8% compared to +2.4% in August); fuels (-2.9% compared to -0.6%); clothing and footwear (-6.5% compared to 3.4%); and slowed at department stores (1.1% compared to 11%); and for jewelry, watches and clocks (5.3% compared to 22%). On the other hand, sales at supermarkets rebounded (0.6% compared to -3.4%) and rose more for consumer durable goods (3.3% compared to 2.1%). Based on seasonally adjusted data, retail sales decreased by 3% in Q3 over Q2. Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 5.67 percent from 2005 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -18.50 percent in February of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong is expected to be 3.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong to stand at 8.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.
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