Retail trade in Hong Kong increased 1.2 percent year-on-year in November 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 5.3 percent in the previous month. It was the smallest gain in retail trade since June last year as, sales fell for fuels (-0.8 percent from 0.5 percent in October); clothing & footwear (-2.8 percent from 0.5 percent) and jewelry, watches & clocks (-0.3 percent from 5.9 percent). Also, sales of consumer durable goods rose less (0.5 percent from 17.2 percent). On the other hand, sales at department stores advanced further (3.9 percent from 3.4 percent) and declined at a softer pace at supermarkets (-3.0 percent from -3.9 percent) and for food, alcoholic drinks & tobacco (-1.3 percent from -5.2 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 1.8 percent, after increasing 8.4 percent in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 5.64 percent from 2005 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -18.50 percent in February of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong is expected to be 4.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong to stand at 5.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.