US Inflation Poised to Surge as Iran War Fuels Energy Prices

The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since May 2023, and compared to 3.3% in March. Figures came above forecasts of 3.7% as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continues to push prices higher. Energy costs jumped 17.9%, the steepest annual increase since September 2022, compared to 12.5% in March, mostly due to gasoline (28.4% vs 18.9%) and fuel oil (54.3%). Inflation also accelerated for shelter (3.3% vs 3%) and food (2.3% vs 2.7%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI was up 0.6%, easing from the 0.9% rise recorded in March, which was the largest monthly gain since June 2022, and in line with forecasts. Core inflation rate also edged higher, albeit at a more moderate pace, to 2.8% year-on-year, the highest level since September, from 2.6% in March and above forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.4%, up from 0.2% in both February and March and forecasts of 0.3%.

The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated to 3.7% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, and compared to 3.3% in March as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continues to push prices higher. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 0.6%, easing from the 0.9% rise recorded in March, which was the largest monthly gain since June 2022. The surge in inflation comes as the US national average gasoline price climbed nearly 50% since the war with Iran started, rising above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Meanwhile, core inflation is also expected to have edged higher, albeit at a more moderate pace, to 2.7% year-on-year, the highest level in six months, from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices likely increased by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in both February and March.

The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in both February and January. Figures came in line with forecasts, with the rise primarily driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), mostly gasoline (up 18.9%) and fuel oil (44.2%), due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks continued to decline (-3.2% vs -3.2%) while inflation steadied for shelter (3% vs 3%) and eased for food (2.7% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and also in line with forecasts, boosted by a 21.2% jump in gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, also picked up though much more moderately, to an annual rate of 2.6%, compared to forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%.