US 10-Year Yield Rises on Strong Jobs Data

2026-11-09 02:46 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.88% on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as stronger-than-expected employment figures reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, more than double the 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, underscoring the resilience of the US labor market.

Markets are now pricing in an approximately 81% probability of a Fed rate increase in December, up from 71% before the employment report.

Investors are now awaiting key US inflation releases this week for further indications of the Fed’s monetary policy direction, with the CPI due on Tuesday and the PPI scheduled for Friday.

Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven bonds weakened as global equity markets rebounded from the recent AI-driven selloff, which was fueled by concerns over tighter AI industry regulations following the Democrats’ decisive victory in the US midterm elections.



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US 10-Year Yield Rises on Strong Jobs Data
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.88% on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as stronger-than-expected employment figures reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, more than double the 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, underscoring the resilience of the US labor market. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 81% probability of a Fed rate increase in December, up from 71% before the employment report. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation releases this week for further indications of the Fed’s monetary policy direction, with the CPI due on Tuesday and the PPI scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven bonds weakened as global equity markets rebounded from the recent AI-driven selloff, which was fueled by concerns over tighter AI industry regulations following the Democrats’ decisive victory in the US midterm elections.
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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note jumped as much as 6bps to 4.9% on Friday, before settling around 4.86%, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report boosted expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. The US economy added 165K jobs in October, well above forecasts of 65K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and wage growth exceeded expectations, pointing to a resilient labour market capable of withstanding higher borrowing costs as the Fed seeks to contain inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, US stocks were on track to rebound from the sharp losses recorded in the previous session, easing demand for safe-haven assets and contributing to the reversal in Treasury prices. Investors have been reassessing the potential economic implications of the Democrats' sweep in the midterm elections, including the prospect of lower tax cuts and government spending, alongside potentially tighter AI regulation that could weigh on investment in the sector.
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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.85% on Friday, remaining close to its lowest levels in two months as mounting global equity market losses boosted demand for safe-haven government bonds. The decline in yields followed a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, which heightened concerns over increased regulatory scrutiny of the artificial intelligence industry and a possible slowdown in data center expansion. Meanwhile, investors shifted their focus to Friday’s US employment report for further indications of labor market conditions. Recent data showed that private businesses added 86,000 jobs in October, according to ADP, while initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 57 years. Despite the relatively strong employment figures, markets reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December to around 68%, down from nearly 83% a day earlier.
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