The US economy expanded an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, the least since Q1 2025, following a 4.4% growth in Q3 and well below forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate showed. Consumer spending slowed (2.4% vs 3.5%), weighed down by a 0.1% decline in goods purchases, while services spending rose 3.4%. Meanwhile, exports fell 0.9% after surging 9.6% in Q3, and imports also declined, though at a slower pace (-1.3% vs -4.4%). Government spending and investment contracted sharply by 5.1% (vs 2.2%), subtracting 0.9 pp from overall growth, due to the government shutdown. On the other hand, fixed investment accelerated (2.6% vs 0.8%), driven by strong gains in intellectual property products (7.4% vs 5.6%) and equipment (3.2% vs 5.2%), as well as a more moderate decline in structures (-2.4% vs -5.0%). The drop in residential investment also eased (-1.5% vs -7.1%). Considering full 2025, the US economy expanded 2.2%, below 2.8% in 2024, reflecting increases in consumer spending and investment. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent from 1947 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 34.90 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a record low of -28.00 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States GDP Growth Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-01-22 01:30 PM
QoQ Final
Q3 4.4% 3.8% 4.3% 4.3%
2026-02-20 01:30 PM
QoQ Adv
Q4 1.4% 4.4% 3% 3.5%
2026-03-13 01:30 PM
QoQ 2nd Est
Q4 4.4% 1.4%

Components Last Previous Unit Reference
GDP Growth Contribution Consumer Spending 1.58 2.34 percentage points Dec 2025
GDP Growth Contribution Exports -0.10 1.00 percentage points Dec 2025
GDP Growth Contribution Government -0.90 0.38 percentage points Dec 2025
GDP Growth Contribution Imports 0.18 0.62 percentage points Dec 2025
GDP Growth Contribution Investment 0.66 0.03 percentage points Dec 2025

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Changes in Inventories -13.60 -23.90 USD Billion Dec 2025
Full Year GDP Growth 2.20 2.80 percent Dec 2025
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.30 percent Dec 2025
GDP Constant Prices 24111.80 24026.80 USD Billion Dec 2025
GDP from Agriculture 200.70 196.00 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Construction 889.10 890.90 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Manufacturing 2434.60 2405.00 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Mining 369.60 365.70 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP From Government 2601.40 2603.20 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Services 17529.70 17305.60 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Transport 755.90 744.00 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP from Utilities 353.50 340.60 USD Billion Sep 2025
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 4.40 percent Dec 2025
GDP Sales 1.20 4.50 percent Dec 2025
Government Spending 3962.50 4015.00 USD Billion Dec 2025
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4417.20 4389.30 USD Billion Dec 2025
Gross National Product 24064.00 23773.90 USD Billion Sep 2025
Real Consumer Spending 2.40 3.50 percent Dec 2025


United States GDP Growth Rate
On the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures accounts for 68 percent of total GDP out of which purchases of goods constitute 23 percent and services 45 percent. Private investment accounts for 16 percent of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18 percent. As the value of goods exported (13.5 percent) is lower than the value of goods imported (16.5 percent), net exports subtracts 3 percent from the total GDP value.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.40 4.40 34.90 -28.00 1947 - 2025 percent Quarterly
SA

News Stream
US GDP Growth Well Below Forecasts
The US economy expanded an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, the least since Q1 2025, following a 4.4% growth in Q3 and well below forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate showed. Consumer spending slowed (2.4% vs 3.5%), weighed down by a 0.1% decline in goods purchases, while services spending rose 3.4%. Meanwhile, exports fell 0.9% after surging 9.6% in Q3, and imports also declined, though at a slower pace (-1.3% vs -4.4%). Government spending and investment contracted sharply by 5.1% (vs 2.2%), subtracting 0.9 pp from overall growth, due to the government shutdown. On the other hand, fixed investment accelerated (2.6% vs 0.8%), driven by strong gains in intellectual property products (7.4% vs 5.6%) and equipment (3.2% vs 5.2%), as well as a more moderate decline in structures (-2.4% vs -5.0%). The drop in residential investment also eased (-1.5% vs -7.1%). Considering full 2025, the US economy expanded 2.2%, below 2.8% in 2024, reflecting increases in consumer spending and investment.
2026-02-20
US Economy Expected to Grow 3% in Q4
The US economy is expected to have grown at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q4 2025, slowing from 4.4% in the previous quarter. According to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, consumer spending is anticipated to remain solid, supported by health care expenditures and gains in asset markets, though likely moderating to 2.5% from 3.5% in Q3. Investment in non-residential structures and residential construction is expected to stay subdued, while equipment investment may continue to expand, boosted by the ongoing AI boom. Inventories are projected to be largely unchanged in Q4, which would provide a positive contribution to GDP following sharp inventory declines in both Q2 and Q3. Government spending is expected to slow, with state and local expenditures showing moderate growth, while federal outlays are likely to decline following the longest government shutdown on record. On the external front, both exports and imports are forecast to rise modestly, contributing slightly to overall GDP growth.
2026-02-20
US GDP Growth Revised Up to 4.4%
The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and marking the strongest GDP growth since Q3 2023. The upward revision primarily reflected stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. Robust growth was driven by firm consumer spending, a rebound in exports, and higher government outlays. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, unchanged from the initial estimate and the fastest pace this year, accelerating from 2.5% in Q2. Exports surged 9.6%, revised up from 8.8% and rebounding from a 1.8% decline in the prior quarter while imports fell 4.4%, extending the decline seen in Q2. Government spending recovered (2.2% vs -0.1%), while the drag from private inventories eased significantly, subtracting just 0.12 percentage points from growth compared with 3.44 percentage points in Q2. Meanwhile, fixed investment increased 0.8%, below the initial estimate of 1% and slowing sharply from 4.4% in Q2.
2026-01-22