Argentina’s trade balance shifted to a USD 460 million surplus in February 2019 from a USD 892 million gap in the same month a year earlier. It was the sixth straight monthly trade surplus, as imports plunged 22.9 percent year-on-year to USD 4004 million, as purchases declined for capital goods (-32.6 percent); intermediate goods (-9.8 percent); fuels & lubricants (-17.1 percent); consumption goods (-28.8 percent) and vehicles (-46.5 percent). By country of origin, imports dropped from Brazil (-37.1 percent), China (-33.9 percent) and Germany (-0.4 percent). Exports rose 3.7 percent to USD 4464 million, mainly driven by sales of agricultural manufactures (4.1 percent); industrial manufactures (5.5 percent); commodities (1.2 percent) and fuels & lubricants (3.0 percent). Exports went up to Brazil (19.2 percent), China (7.7 percent) and the US (7.7 percent). Balance of Trade in Argentina averaged 216.63 USD Million from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2543 USD Million in May of 2009 and a record low of -1494 USD Million in November of 2017.
Balance of Trade in Argentina is expected to be -1200.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Argentina to stand at -900.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 200.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.