US Durable Goods Orders Rise Less Than Expected But Core Beat

New orders for US-manufactured durable goods increased 0.3% month-over-month to $334.77 billion in June 2026, rebounding from a revised 4% slump in May but much lower than forecasts of a 1.6% jump. Orders for capital goods went up 1.1% and increases were also seen in orders for primary metals (1.1%), computers and electronics (3.1%), and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (0.9%). On the other hand, orders declined for transportation (-0.2%), mostly motor vehicle and parts (-0.6%), fabricated metal products (-0.5%), and machinery (-0.1%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.6%. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose by 0.9%, following an upwardly revised 1.9% rise in May and above forecasts of 0.8%. Business investment has remained resilient this year, supported by robust spending on AI and a war-related increase in US defence orders.

New orders for US-manufactured durable goods dropped by 4.5% mom to $332 billion in May 2026, after an upwardly revised 8.5% jump in April and matching market forecasts. This followed two consecutive months of gains and marked the steepest decline since June 2025, driven by a 14% drop in transport equipment orders, on account of nondefense aircraft and parts (-51.8%). Orders also fell sharply for capital goods (-13.6%). Meanwhile, demand rebounded slightly for computers and electronic products (0.3% vs -0.4%) and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (0.3% vs -0.2%). Excluding transportation, orders rose by 1.3%, following a revised 1.4% advance in April and surpassing estimates of a 0.6% increase; while excluding defense, they slipped by 4.6%, after April's revised 8.4% surge. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose by 1.6%, after a downwardly revised 0.7% decrease in April.

New orders for US-manufactured durable goods jumped by 7.9% from the previous month to $346 billion in April 2026, after an upwardly revised 1.3% rise in the prior month and largely beating forecasts of a 3.5% advance. This marked the strongest increase in new orders since May 2025, mainly reflecting higher demand for transportation equipment (+21.5%), particularly nondefense aircraft and parts (+165.9%); and capital goods (21%). Orders also increased for fabricated metal products (3.5%); primary metals (1.9%) and machinery (0.5%), but fell for computer and electronic products (-0.7%). Excluding transportation, new orders rose by 1.1%, the same pace as in March; while excluding defense, they surged by 8.1%, after a 0.3% decline previously. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell by 1.1%, following a 3.9% rise in the prior month.