US Business Activity Growth Holds Close to 5-Year High

The US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October 2026 from 58.4 in September, a two-month low, but remained firmly in expansion territory and signalled the second-strongest increase in business activity since March 2022. Growth in new orders strengthened to its highest level in more than four-and-a-half years, while export sales recorded their largest gain since May 2022. Employment also remained strong, rising at its fastest pace since June 2022 as companies increased staffing to meet demand and address growing backlogs. However, mounting cost pressures drove selling-price inflation to its highest level since August 2022. Input costs rose at their fastest pace since November 2022, excluding September’s increase. Meanwhile, business confidence for the year ahead weakened slightly but remained the second-highest reading recorded this year.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September 2026 from 56 in August, matching the flash estimate and marking the strongest expansion in private-sector business activity in more than five years. Growth accelerated across both manufacturing and services, pointing to broad-based strength in the US economy. The increase in output was supported by a rapid rise in new orders, indicating that demand remained robust during the month. Stronger workloads also encouraged businesses to expand their workforces, with employment increasing at the fastest pace since June 2022. However, the stronger economic performance was accompanied by a renewed build-up in cost pressures. Input prices rose at their sharpest rate since October 2022, adding to concerns about inflationary pressures across the private sector. Companies responded by raising their selling prices at a faster pace in September, suggesting that higher input costs were increasingly being passed on to customers.

The S&P Global US Flash Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September 2026 from 56 in August, pointing to the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since July 2021 and marking a fourth consecutive month of accelerating growth. The gains were driven by the service sector (58.7 vs 56.5), which reported the steepest rise in output for over five years, while manufacturing also accelerated (56.7 vs 53.1). New order inflows gathered pace, buoyed principally by the domestic market. Companies’ backlogs of uncompleted orders rose at the sharpest rate since May 2022, which encouraged firms to take on more staff and at a rate not seen since June 2022. However, price pressures intensified, with input costs rising the most since October 2022 mainly due to higher fuel and transport costs though wage pressures were also noted to have picked up in many cases. Selling price inflation also went up while business output expectations for the year ahead were unchanged.