Chile Copper Production

Chile’s copper production dropped 4.8% year over year to 378,554 metric tons in February, marking its lowest level since March 2017. On a rolling 12-month basis, output has now declined for seven consecutive months, largely due to challenges in projects targeting higher-grade ore. Although no major disruptions were reported during the month, seasonal factors such as heavy rains in northern Chile and rough seas can hinder logistics during the summer. Chile’s downturn is significant given its dominant role in global copper supply, amplifying concerns about tightening availability across the market. Those constraints were a key factor behind the surge in prices to record levels in January. Compared to January, February production was down 8.5%.

Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, cut its 2025 output growth forecast to 1.5% from 3% previously, citing a June production drop at BHP’s Escondida mine and Collahuasi. Production in the world’s top copper exporter is still expected to reach 5.58 million metric tons this year, with average copper prices for 2025–2026 maintained at $4.30/lb. Cochilco warned the June decline was “a turning point” and that a deadly collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could pose a “significant risk of supply disruption.” For 2026, it kept growth at 3% but lowered output estimates to 5.75 million tons. Globally, prices are expected to stay high due to limited concentrate supply and strong demand, especially from China and other emerging economies, with demand for refined copper set to hit 27 million tons in 2026. China is projected to consume 15.7 million tons in 2025, while India’s demand is expected to rise 7.5%, driven by industrialization and the energy transition.