Chicago PMI Surges to Over 4-Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer surged to 62.7 in May of 2026 from 49.2 in the previous month, the highest in over four years. The sharp recovery in the index reflected fresh traction in business activity, after the tight supply of energy due to the war in the Middle East lifted energy prices and dented consumers' purchasing power at the start of the second quarter.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 49.2 in April 2026 from 52.8 in March, missing market expectations of 53 and signaling a contraction in business activity. The decline reflected the impact of rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict, with drops in order backlogs, new orders, supplier deliveries, and production. Meanwhile, employment increased. The prices paid index reached its highest level since June, driven by higher costs for oil, metals, and transportation fuel surcharges.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 52.8 in March 2026 from a near four-year high of 57.7 in February and below market estimates of 55. This marked the third consecutive month of growth in Chicago's economic activity, though the pace of expansion slowed significantly from the previous month. New orders and output continued to grow, but at a slower pace, while workforce numbers decreased. Meanwhile, order backlogs reached levels not seen since December 2022. On the price front, prices paid accelerated to its highest since December.