Italy | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.8 10.4 10.2 10 8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 3601.32 4800 3200 5200 7200 4400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 132.60 132 132 132 129 124 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.14 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 0.89 [+]
Stock Market 21040.81 20600 20400 19800 20000 16700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.08 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.36 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20 1.2 1.1 1 1.1 1.6 percent [+]
GDP 1821.50 1910 1930 1950 1970 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 395782.59 395700 399800 404000 406000 434000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 68602.49 69600 69900 70200 68739 71400 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 33889.20 34700 34700 34700 35100 36000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 34219.76 33900 34000 34200 34300 35500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7319.10 7262 7258 7364 7270 7340 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16062.60 16200 16032 16400 16093 17700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 67749.20 67700 67900 68200 67443 69200 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 266361.00 264000 267754 265000 268610 272000 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.8 10.4 10.2 10 8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 22998.25 22900 23200 23400 23700 26100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2879.83 2790 2750 2720 2700 2610 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 35433.24 36400 36700 37400 37600 43000 Hundreds Person [+]
Full Time Employment 137634.37 141000 142000 143000 143500 149000 Hundreds Person [+]
Employment Rate 57.86 57.6 57.7 57.9 57.9 59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.27 65.6 65.7 65.9 66 66.5 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.90 6 5.8 5.8 5.6 4.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 34.00 34.7 34.4 34.2 34 30 percent [+]
Labour Costs 106.76 106 107 108 109 117 Index Points [+]
Productivity 106.76 106 107 108 108 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 2167.84 2340 2196 2370 2207 2420 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 112.20 112 112 113 113 120 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.9 percent [+]
Population 60.67 60.67 60.67 60.66 60.65 60.58 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.58 65.58 65.58 65.58 66.29 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 66.68 67 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1185.10 2170 2190 2190 1280 2380 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 940.30 1020 1050 1050 926 1220 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1250.00 1400 1189 1400 1189 1480 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2370.00 2400 2415 2420 2420 2560 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 -0.1 0.06 0.4 0.06 0.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.00 1.2 105 107 109 124 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.10 103 105 107 109 124 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.40 102 104 106 108 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 0.9 1 1.2 1.2 2.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 106.26 107 108 108 109 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.00 105 107 109 111 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.80 4.5 3.9 2.6 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.30 119 121 120 123 128 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 108.50 103 108 105 108 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.00 3.2 3.6 3.4 3 2.3 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.20 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.90 102 103 105 107 120 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.32 -0.26 -0.22 -0.18 1 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1068933.00 1290000 1067410 1520000 1067678 2160000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1457986.00 1740000 1459096 2020000 1460321 2410000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1477408.00 1770000 1491219 2050000 1511926 2450000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3957576.34 4340000 3946516 4560000 3945929 5140000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 132064.30 132215 132193 132183 132182 132181 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 771237.00 829000 765899 848000 758834 901000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 899557.40 832000 943264 876000 995726 992000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 176.15 174 174 173 172 166 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 3601.32 4800 3200 5200 7200 4400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 34006.77 36700 36000 36500 39200 38900 EUR Million [+]
Imports 30405.45 31900 32800 31300 32000 34500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 3432.00 3870 2560 4590 2550 1510 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.60 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 2101462.00 2120000 2140000 2160000 2180000 2370000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 110.90 112 111 113 111 119 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 356.00 2850 2450 6050 3048 5210 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 160.68 160 167 162 161 162 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2451.84 2452 2452 2452 2452 2452 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 101.00 100 87.25 100 87.8 103 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -440.00 2250 780 -1250 78.77 -470 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 [+]
Tourism Revenues 3011.00 4100 3900 2000 2400 2500 EUR Million [+]
Weapons Sales 802.00 739 804 869 823 758 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 132.60 132 132 132 129 124 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2 -2 -2 -1.5 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -13.30 -11.6 -6.1 1.9 -0.2 1.5 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 79053.61 78800 78800 79000 79108 81900 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 49.60 49 49 49 48 46 percent [+]
Government Revenues 32.85 50.6 36.1 94.1 32.2 100 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2270355.00 2308000 2288578 2339000 2314218 2514000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 46.15 62.2 42.2 92.2 32.4 99 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 9405.00 12540 10020 7400 10500 6820 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 27966.20 26715 27628 28541 28651 29313 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 107.30 107 103 104 105 112 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.10 54.7 53.9 53.6 53.8 52.4 [+]
Services PMI 55.10 52.5 52.2 52 52.6 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.00 2 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 -0.4 0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.70 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.60 76.7 76.9 77.2 77.4 78.6 percent [+]
Factory Orders -0.70 1.8 -2.2 1.2 -0.6 0.4 percent [+]
New Orders 93.50 115 105 111 109 112 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 2004.90 1543 1427 1524 1587 1537 EUR Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 10.00 12.2 14.5 19.8 20.2 18.13 [+]
Car Registrations 204113.00 167000 134000 115000 207499 121000 Cars [+]
Bankruptcies 3000.00 3700 2850 3900 2668 3600 Companies [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.50 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.52 4.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 44.00 44 44 44 43 41 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.20 54 53.6 53.2 53.4 52.5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 50.00 49 49 49 48 46 [+]
Electricity Production 27979.00 23817 24150 22920 24414 23000 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 47.00 48 48 48 49 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 60.00 59 59 59 58 56 [+]
Mining Production 11.80 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 1.1 percent [+]
Steel Production 2109.00 2040 2110 1510 2170 1560 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.40 106 104 105 107 110 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 -0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.6 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.20 -0.2 0.5 1 1.2 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 238563.14 237000 237000 237000 239826 245000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 282338.00 288000 286542 293000 287521 302000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 8.00 8.2 8 7.8 7.7 7.2 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.16 2.25 2.27 2.29 2.32 2.75 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 90435.45 92400 96700 98900 100100 145000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.75 1.62 1.78 1.63 1.64 1.68 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 41.40 41.4 41.2 41 40.8 34.3 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 61.93 61.5 61.3 60.9 60.6 53.2 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -4.60 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 0.6 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 85.49 88 90 92 94 111 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 49.00 49.5 50.2 50.5 50.6 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 72.90 72.7 72.7 72.7 72.2 73.2 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 27.90 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.80 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 percent [+]