Italy | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.6 8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 3989.78 5200 7200 4800 2542 4400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 132.60 132 129 129 129 124 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 22092.95 22200 22000 21800 21500 19100 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.84 2.2 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.51 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 1849.97 1950 1970 1990 1759 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 400547.00 404000 406000 409100 397380 434000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 69263.90 70200 69341 69502 69656 71400 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 34283.70 34700 35100 35100 35100 36000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 34620.13 34200 34300 34400 34638 35500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7159.50 7173 7115 7133 7155 7340 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15958.90 16400 16189 16260 16332 17700 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 68046.80 68200 68833 69051 69171 69200 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 268936.00 265000 268963 269186 269314 272000 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.10 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.6 8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 23137.54 23400 23700 24000 23047 26100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2890.82 2720 2700 2680 2839 2610 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 35764.62 37400 37600 37900 35560 43000 Hundreds Person [+]
Full Time Employment 141493.33 143000 143500 144000 141079 149000 Hundreds Person [+]
Employment Rate 58.10 57.9 57.9 58 58.01 59 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.40 65.9 66 66 65.16 66.5 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.80 5.8 5.6 5.5 6.59 4.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 35.70 34.2 34 33.8 35.15 30 percent [+]
Labour Costs 106.70 108 109 110 106 117 Index Points [+]
Productivity 106.70 108 108 109 106 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 2167.84 2370 2207 2211 2215 2420 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 112.30 113 113 113 112 120 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.60 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.9 percent [+]
Population 60.59 60.59 60.54 60.54 60.54 60.02 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.58 65.58 66 66.5 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.58 66.58 66 66 66 67 [+]
Living Wage Family 1370.00 2190 1448 1443 1437 2380 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 855.00 1050 887 884 881 1220 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1130.00 1400 1296 1293 1290 1480 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2390.00 2420 2520 2499 2479 2560 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.19 0.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.4 -0.01 0 0.04 0.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.00 107 109 111 101 124 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.00 107 109 111 101 124 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.10 106 108 110 102 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.50 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.06 108 109 110 106 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 103.50 109 111 111 103 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.10 120 121 121 121 128 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 106.30 105 107 107 107 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.10 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 100.20 100 100 100 100 99.64 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 101.60 105 107 109 101 120 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.22 -0.18 -0.12 -0.08 1 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1090455.00 1520000 1067575 1067303 1067015 2160000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1477236.00 2020000 1456595 1456324 1456011 2410000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1497305.00 2050000 1500306 1499914 1499505 2450000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3877787.63 4560000 3877185 3874910 3872642 5140000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128053.60 126824 126405 125986 125570 122015 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 731699.00 848000 717480 716562 716229 901000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 176.15 173 172 172 167 166 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 942908.90 876000 933146 930872 927796 992000 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 3989.78 5200 7200 4800 2542 4400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 38054.97 36500 39200 36900 35643 38900 EUR Million [+]
Imports 34065.20 31300 32000 32100 31021 34500 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 4307.00 4590 2550 3290 896 1510 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.60 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 2114116.00 2160000 2180000 2200000 2000842 2370000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 113.00 113 111 111 110 119 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 6176.00 6050 471 -57.88 -284 5210 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 179.80 171 169 168 166 155 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 2451.84 2452 2452 2452 2452 2452 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.41 2.36 [+]
Tourism Revenues 4434.94 2000 2400 4200 4079 2500 EUR Million [+]
Weapons Sales 802.00 700 706 711 716 674 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 27.00 100 83.73 88.85 91.61 103 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -840.00 -1250 1341 1334 1333 -470 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 132.60 132 129 129 129 124 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 2.90 1.9 -0.2 -10.2 -4.4 1.5 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 78936.60 79000 78921 78879 78837 81900 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 49.60 49 48 48 48.99 46 percent [+]
Government Revenues 32.14 94.1 32.2 52.3 28.14 100 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 2283667.20 2339000 2278720 2278259 2277881 2514000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 29.24 92.2 32.4 62.5 31.36 99 EUR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 27966.20 28709 28861 29014 29166 30382 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 12050.00 7400 10500 11600 9923 6820 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 111.00 104 105 106 107 112 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.80 53.6 53.8 54 52.3 52.4 [+]
Services PMI 52.10 52 52.6 53 52.78 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.40 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.03 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.30 -0.3 0.5 -0.4 0.03 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.20 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.81 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.00 77.2 77.4 77.5 76.38 78.6 percent [+]
Factory Orders 8.70 1.2 -0.6 1 0.27 0.4 percent [+]
New Orders 75.30 111 109 116 97.47 112 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 1023.60 1224 1465 1105 1038 787 EUR Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 10.60 19.8 20.2 22.6 11.15 18.13 [+]
Car Registrations 157900.00 115000 158073 161642 164167 121000 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 9210.65 9374 9288 9225 9248 8450 KBps [+]
Mining Production 1.90 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.74 1.1 percent [+]
Steel Production 2174.00 1510 2134 2065 2072 1560 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Bankruptcies 3000.00 3900 2926 3531 2888 3600 Companies [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.54 4.5 4.52 4.52 4.49 4.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 44 43 43 46 41 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.90 53.2 53.4 53.8 53.14 52.5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 46.00 49 48 48 50 46 [+]
Electricity Production 25204.00 22920 24426 24398 24400 23000 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 47.00 48 49 49 46 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 60.00 59 56 56 56 56 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 116.10 105 107 108 112 110 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 -0.6 0.6 -0.3 0.02 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 1 1.2 1.5 0.19 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 240905.80 237000 239614 239535 239433 245000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 287135.00 293000 286809 286583 286504 302000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 7.50 7.8 7.7 7.6 8.42 7.2 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.05 2.29 2.32 2.36 3 2.75 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 93421.68 98900 100100 102300 92427 145000 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.83 1.63 1.64 1.63 1.82 1.68 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 41.80 41 40.8 40.6 41.73 34.3 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 61.09 60.9 60.6 60.2 57.76 53.2 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output -1.10 0.2 0.6 1 -0.51 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 99.15 92 94 96 101 111 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 52.30 50.5 50.6 50.8 49.37 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 72.90 72.7 72.2 72.2 72.97 73.2 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 27.90 27.9 27.9 27.9 28 27.9 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.80 48.8 48.8 48.8 48 48.8 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.61 41.57 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.3 32.08 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.98 9.49 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 6.00 6.85 9.01 16.64 14.37 8.31 celsius [+]
Precipitation 11.00 75.93 75.93 75.93 75.93 75.93 mm [+]