Italy - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.00 11.1 11 11 10.9 9.5 percent
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 4829.68 7200 4800 4150 5100 4400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 132.60 129 129 129 129 124 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.22
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 23749.22
points
22829 22041 21280 20547 15515
Government Bond 10Y 1.96
percent
2.22 2.25 2.27 2.17 2.51
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70
percent
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1
GDP 1849.97
USD Billion
1970 1990 2000 2060 2240
GDP Constant Prices 400176.90
EUR Million
406000 409100 411000 416000 434000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 71398.80
EUR Million
72400 72900 73200 73700 77000
GDP per capita 34283.70
USD
35100 35100 35100 35100 36000
GDP per capita PPP 34620.13
USD
34300 34400 34500 34700 35500
GDP From Agriculture 6850.30
EUR Million
7400 7150 6900 7200 7400
GDP From Construction 16056.40
EUR Million
16500 16600 16700 16900 17700
GDP From Manufacturing 69269.00
EUR Million
70500 70900 71400 72100 73600
GDP From Services 269365.00
EUR Million
272000 273000 274000 275000 284000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent
11.1 11 11 10.9 9.5
Employed Persons 23182.52
Thousand
23700 24000 24200 24400 26100
Unemployed Persons 2854.92
Thousand
2800 2780 2740 2710 2610
Part Time Employment 35825.92
Hundreds Person
37600 37900 38200 39000 43000
Full Time Employment 143175.60
Hundreds Person
143900 144200 144700 146000 149000
Employment Rate 58.40
percent
57.9 58 58.34 58.4 59
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.41
percent
66 66 66.1 66.2 66.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.60
percent
5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 32.70
percent
34 33.8 33.4 33 30
Labour Costs 106.70
Index Points
109 110 111 113 117
Productivity 106.70
Index Points
108 109 110 112 117
Wages 2167.84
EUR/Month
2380 2380 2380 2380 2420
Wages in Manufacturing 112.40
Index Points
113 113 113 114 120
Wage Growth 0.70
percent
0.8 0.9 1 1 1.9
Population 60.59
Million
60.54 60.54 60.54 60.54 60.02
Retirement Age Women 65.58
66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 67
Retirement Age Men 66.58
66.58 66.58 66.58 66.58 67
Living Wage Family 1370.00
EUR/Month
1450 1450 1450 1450 1650
Living Wage Individual 855.00
EUR/Month
900 900 900 900 1120
Wages Low Skilled 1130.00
EUR/Month
1290 1290 1290 1290 1480
Wages High Skilled 2390.00
EUR/Month
2430 2430 2430 2430 2560
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.10
Index Points
106 108 110 112 122
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.20
Index Points
104 106 108 110 121
Core Consumer Prices 101.00
Index Points
104 106 108 110 121
Core Inflation Rate 0.40
percent
0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.3
GDP Deflator 107.41
Index Points
109 110 111 112 117
Producer Prices 104.00
Index Points
106 107 109 110 119
Producer Prices Change 2.50
percent
2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.2
Export Prices 120.40
Index Points
121 122 122 123 127
Import Prices 107.20
Index Points
108 109 109 110 115
Food Inflation 1.50
percent
2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities 100.50
Index Points
103 104 106 107 116
CPI Transportation 102.90
Index Points
105 107 109 112 120
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.25 1
Money Supply M1 1091998.00
EUR Million
1150000 1190000 1240000 1290000 1510000
Money Supply M2 1474960.00
EUR Million
1560000 1610000 1650000 1740000 2010000
Money Supply M3 1495137.00
EUR Million
1600000 1640000 1690000 1780000 2050000
Banks Balance Sheet 3920179.79
EUR Million
3980000 4040000 4090000 4150000 4290000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 126072.60
EUR Million
125634 125225 124821 124421 121367
Loans to Private Sector 741129.00
EUR Million
775000 791000 824000 859000 901000
Private Debt to GDP 176.15
percent
170 170 170 170 166
Central Bank Balance Sheet 950915.70
EUR Million
991000 1050000 1111000 1191000 1341000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 4829.68
EUR Million
7200 4800 4150 5100 4400
Exports 40671.82
EUR Million
39200 36900 39500 37200 38900
Imports 35842.14
EUR Million
32000 32100 35350 32100 34500
Current Account 4881.00
EUR Million
2550 3290 4150 3250 1510
Current Account to GDP 2.60
percent
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7
External Debt 2116930.00
EUR Million
2180000 2200000 2220000 2260000 2370000
Terms of Trade 112.30
Index Points
114 114 115 115 119
Capital Flows 4868.00
EUR Million
2200 6950 5751 5780 5210
Remittances 177.71
EUR Million
169 167 166 164 155
Gold Reserves 2451.84
Tonnes
2452 2452 2452 2452 2452
Terrorism Index 2.75
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Tourism Revenues 2140.00
EUR Million
2400 4200 4500 2300 2500
Weapons Sales 802.00
USD Million
686 691 696 700 674
Crude Oil Production 99.00
BBL/D/1K
100 100 100 101 103
Foreign Direct Investment 668.00
EUR Million
-2020 3600 -400 960 470
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 132.60
percent
129 129 129 129 124
Government Budget -2.40
percent of GDP
-1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5
Government Budget Value -35.20
EUR Billion
-0.2 -10.2 2.5 1.1 1.5
Government Spending 79135.20
EUR Million
80000 80500 81000 81500 82500
Government Spending to GDP 49.60
percent
48 48 48 48 46
Government Revenues 35.42
EUR Billion
32.2 52.3 34.7 96.1 100
Government Debt 2289692.90
EUR Million
2348000 2366000 2378000 2398000 2514000
Fiscal Expenditure 70.63
EUR Billion
32.4 62.5 32.2 95 99
Military Expenditure 27966.20
USD Million
25959 26876 27792 28709 30382
Asylum Applications 10390.00
persons
10500 11600 9500 7270 6820
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 110.50
Index Points
112 112 111 111 112
Manufacturing PMI 57.40
59 57.5 57 56.2 54.1
Services PMI 55.40
Index Points
55.1 55.5 55.4 55.7 53.1
Industrial Production 2.20
percent
3.2 3 2.8 2.5 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.70
percent
4.8 4.2 3.8 3.6 2.5
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
78.5 78.8 79 79.5 78.6
Factory Orders 1.90
percent
-0.6 1 -0.8 1.1 0.7
New Orders 110.10
Index Points
109 116 109 111 112
Changes in Inventories -1415.40
EUR Million
605 304 1065 1064 675
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 15.30
20.2 22.6 24.5 26 18.1
Car Registrations 121100.00
Cars
232000 195000 171000 121000 129000
Internet Speed 9210.65
KBps
9288 9225 9248 9178 8450
IP Addresses 13315518.00
IP
13174629 13079842 12985830 12896204 12422206
Mining Production -11.20
percent
0.5 1 1.2 1.5 1.4
Steel Production 2184.00
Thousand Tonnes
2200 2000 2050 1600 1560
Bankruptcies 3284.00
Companies
2900 3000 2500 3800 3400
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.64
Competitiveness Rank 43.00
43 43 43 43 41
Composite Pmi 56.50
56 55.8 55.2 55 52.5
Ease of Doing Business 46.00
45 45 45 45 43
Electricity Production 25204.00
Gigawatt-hour
22500 26100 24100 25800 24500
Corruption Index 47.00
Points
49 49 49 49 51
Corruption Rank 60.00
58 58 58 58 56
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 116.60
Index Points
114 112 111 109 110
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent
0.6 -0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.40
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 2 2.1
Consumer Spending 241912.90
EUR Million
243000 244000 245000 246000 255000
Disposable Personal Income 289878.00
EUR Million
292000 294000 295000 296000 302000
Personal Savings 8.20
percent
7.2 7 6.9 6.8 6.2
Bank Lending Rate 1.99
percent
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.75
Consumer Credit 94690.52
EUR Million
100100 102300 105400 111000 145000
Gasoline Prices 1.90
USD/Liter
1.8 1.9 1.9 2 2
Households Debt To Gdp 41.40
percent of GDP
38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 34.3
Households Debt To Income 61.09
percent
57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 53.2
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 3.20
percent
3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2
Housing Index 98.60
Index Points
102 104 106 108 116
Construction Pmi 51.50
50.6 50.8 51 50.9 52
Home Ownership Rate 72.30
percent
71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 27.90
percent
27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.80
percent
48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8
Sales Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate 41.57
percent
41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57 41.57
Social Security Rate For Companies 32.08
percent
32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08 32.08
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49
percent
9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 6.69
celsius
5.64 15.25 20.8 9.4 13.05
Precipitation 11.32
mm
72.16 72.8 66.53 100 79.73