Sugar Futures at 2-Week Lows

2026-03-05 16:50 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Sugar futures in the US traded around 13.7 cents per pound, the lowest level in two weeks, as expectations of ample supply outweighed geopolitical risks from the Middle East crisis, including higher oil and transportation costs.

The downward pressure on prices of the sweetener comes amid prospects of global surpluses in the coming harvests, led by India.

The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported that the country's production between October 1st and February 28th of the 2025/26 crop year reached 24.75 million tons, a 12% increase compared to the same period of the previous cycle.

Meanwhile, analysts at Czarnikow project a global cocoa surplus of 3.4 million tons in 2026/27, following an even larger 8.3 million-ton surplus in 2025/26.

Other consultancies point to similar outcomes, with Green Pool estimating surpluses of 156,000 tons in 2026/27 and 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, while StoneX projects a 2.9 million-ton surplus in 2025/26.



News Stream
Sugar Futures at 2-Week Lows
Sugar futures in the US traded around 13.7 cents per pound, the lowest level in two weeks, as expectations of ample supply outweighed geopolitical risks from the Middle East crisis, including higher oil and transportation costs. The downward pressure on prices of the sweetener comes amid prospects of global surpluses in the coming harvests, led by India. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported that the country's production between October 1st and February 28th of the 2025/26 crop year reached 24.75 million tons, a 12% increase compared to the same period of the previous cycle. Meanwhile, analysts at Czarnikow project a global cocoa surplus of 3.4 million tons in 2026/27, following an even larger 8.3 million-ton surplus in 2025/26. Other consultancies point to similar outcomes, with Green Pool estimating surpluses of 156,000 tons in 2026/27 and 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, while StoneX projects a 2.9 million-ton surplus in 2025/26.
2026-03-05
Sugar Futures at Near 1-Week High
Sugar futures in the US rose to near 14 cents per pound, their highest level in nearly a week, as surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict raised fears of lower sugar output. Higher oil prices makes ethanol production more profitable, encouraging producers to allocate more sugarcane to biofuel. This shift could lead Brazil, the top global sugar producer, to prioritize ethanol over sugar, reducing international supply of the sweetener. Meanwhile, the latest quarterly market outlook from the International Sugar Organization (ISO) confirmed a scenario of ample global supply. The ISO expects the sugar crop to return to a surplus of 1.22 million tons in 2025/26, following a 3.46-million-ton deficit in 2024/25, though slightly below its previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Global production is expected to rise 3% to 181.3 million tons, supported by strong harvests in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. World consumption is seen at 180.069 million tonnes.
2026-03-03
Sugar Futures at Over 2-Week High
Sugar futures in the US extended gains, rising above 14.1 cents per pound to the highest in over two weeks, driven in part by a stronger Brazilian real, which makes Brazilian sugar more expensive abroad, limiting exports and supporting global prices. Recent reports of lower-than-expected production in India, where excessive rain has reduced cane yields, have also helped underpin prices. Reuters cited internal estimates from five trade houses, which put India’s 2025/26 sugar production at 28.5–29 million metric tons, compared with ISMA’s forecast of 30.95 million earlier this month. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Trump-era tariffs could open the door for higher Brazilian sugar exports to the US, with potential implications for global supply. Brokers see signs that the prolonged price decline may be over, but abundant global supply is expected to limit a strong short-term recovery.
2026-02-24