Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Month High

Arabica coffee futures rose to around $3.1 per pound, the highest level since early February, due to signs of tightening short-term supply in top grower Brazil and ongoing external risks. A report by Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, estimated that exports would fall 10% in 2026 to around 4.4 million bags, down from 4.9 million in 2025. This short-term reduction in supply is a direct consequence of the smaller 2025 harvest, putting pressure on export volumes in the first half of 2026, although the outlook for the new harvest remains optimistic. At the same time, dealers noted that farmers continue to hold back sales in anticipation of higher prices, limiting availability. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over global trade flows, including risks to logistics routes and rising transportation costs, are providing additional support and helping sustain elevated prices.

Coffee increased to 302.15 USd/Lbs, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 5.39%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 23.17%.

Arabica coffee futures eased toward $2.80 per pound, the lowest since late February, pressured by new forecasts of robust supply in top producer Brazil. Recent estimates suggest Brazil’s 2026 coffee harvest could reach 66–70 million bags, potentially reversing a deficit cycle amid improved weather conditions. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) said that the coffee crop this year is estimated at a record 64.1 million 60-kg bags, up 3.9% from its January forecast. This would mark an 11.5% increase from last year, driven by Arabica beans. StoneX also raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from its November forecast of 70.7 million bags, representing a 20.8% increase from the previous season, also driven by Arabica output. Meanwhile, the market remains attentive to geopolitical risks, particularly the Iranian conflict, which continues to push up global logistics costs.