Cocoa Futures Remain Subdued

Cocoa prices traded around $3,000 per tonne, close to the lowest since May 2023, as the market continued to be supported by expectations of abundant supply and subdued demand. Favorable weather has improved production prospects in key West African producers, with South American output, particularly from Ecuador, also contributing. Hedgepoint Global Markets on February 27 estimated a 2025/26 global surplus of 365,000 tons, with Ivory Coast producing 1.78 million tons, Ghana 650,000 tons, and Ecuador 615,000 tons. At the same time, ICCO raised its 2024/25 surplus estimate from 49,000 to 75,000 tonnes. On the other hand, slowing global demand has led to a notable accumulation of stockpiles in major producers such as the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries recently cut prices paid to farmers to align with falling international cocoa prices. In recent months, exporters had been postponing purchases of cocoa, as the domestic price was far above the price on the international market.

Cocoa prices eased to around $2,900 per tonne, after a technical recovery briefly pushed them above $3,000 per tonne on March 2. Underlying market fundamentals remained pressured by expectations of abundant supply and weakened demand. Favorable weather in West Africa has been supporting more robust production prospects, while South America, especially Ecuador, is expanding its share of global supply. At the same time, slowing global demand is contributing to the accumulation of inventories around the world, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery in prices in the short term. Hedgepoint Global Markets projects a global surplus of 365,000 tons for the 2025/26 crop year, according to its late-February forecast. For 2024/25, world production was revised to 4.728 million tons, up from the previously projected 4.698 million tons, representing an 8.4% increase compared to the 4.362 million tons recorded in 2023/24.

Cocoa prices rose slightly above $3,000 per tonne, recovering from near three-year lows of $2,888 hit in late February. The rebound reflected technical buying rather than a shift in market fundamentals, which remain dominated by prospects of abundant supply and weak demand. Favorable weather has improved production prospects in key West African producers, with South American output, particularly from Ecuador, also on the rise. On the other hand, slowing global demand has driven a notable accumulation of stockpiles. Hedgepoint Global Markets on February 27 estimated a 2025/26 global surplus of 365,000 tons, with Ivory Coast producing 1.78 million tons, Ghana 650,000 tons, and Ecuador 615,000 tons. At the same time, ICCO raised its 2024/25 surplus estimate from 49,000 to 75,000 tonnes. World output for 2024/25 is now projected at 4.728 million tons, up from the previously projected 4.698 million tons, and representing an 8.4% increase from the 4.362 million tonnes recorded in 2023/24.