Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.82 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 555.00 -2220 375 -2900 -80.44 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 39 42.86 43.62 43.99 45.91 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.61 [+]
Stock Market 5705.95 5700 5650 5470 5530 4610 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.38 2.38 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.83 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.82 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 1339.54 1410 1410 1500 1292 1720 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 423935.00 426940 428907 431436 433658 459154 AUD Million [+]
Gross National Product 421097.00 424441 426142 428283 430484 457151 AUD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 103231.00 103984 103763 104007 103973 104715 AUD Million [+]
GDP per capita 54688.45 56000 56000 56000 55370 59160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43631.20 44370 44370 44370 44100 46000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10369.00 10205 10017 9794 9749 9890 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 32130.00 31988 32165 32207 32159 32197 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24033.00 24000 24035 24100 24149 24121 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 29319.00 29750 29968 30311 30592 33866 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23388.00 23440 23507 23697 23844 25252 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10965.00 10884 10901 10975 10988 11340 AUD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 12152.61 12171 12241 12304 12363 12773 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 711.91 718 705 704 701 694 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment -10110.00 6000 5000 7310 7360 6900 Persons [+]
Full Time Employment 52100.00 16547 13418 9192 7735 6874 Persons [+]
Employment Change 42000.00 -1200 10000 18600 24200 15600 Persons [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.90 64.86 64.9 64.86 64.86 64.86 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.70 12.79 12.7 12.67 12.64 12.6 percent [+]
Productivity 102.10 104 104 105 104 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 99.30 99.32 98.86 98.49 98.46 97.14 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 186.40 190 192 192 192 191 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 169994.00 171062 173541 175166 176251 178434 [+]
Wages 1163.50 1173 1178 1182 1186 1233 AUD/Week [+]
Wage Growth 1.90 2.4 1.92 2.9 1.98 3.3 percent [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1295.10 1311 1319 1327 1334 1419 AUD/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 694.90 680 688 690 716 760 AUD/week [+]
Population 24.13 24.1 24.19 24.28 24.28 25.62 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 5350.00 5535 5537 5537 5538 5538 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2582.40 2588 2588 2588 2588 2588 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2260.43 2235 2229 2231 2230 2231 AUD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 61.29 60.89 61.2 61.27 61.2 61.19 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.50 111 112 112 113 119 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 111.65 112 113 113 114 120 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.76 1.82 1.8 2.08 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 105.17 106 107 108 108 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.30 108 108 109 109 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.30 1.1 1 1.1 1.83 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 94.10 94.65 91.72 87.61 84.71 87.99 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.90 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.80 0.7 0.8 1 1.13 3 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 3.60 3.94 3.66 3.73 3.77 3.81 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.05 1.73 2 3 1.97 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 105.76 106 106 106 106 106 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 348.99 351 356 360 364 405 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2011.39 2033 2066 2099 2131 2469 AUD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4105.50 4135 4151 4160 4161 4221 AUD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 198649.00 200181 200274 200273 200273 200273 AUD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 88457.00 87843 89839 88050 89765 88329 AUD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 879.58 883 887 891 894 914 AUD Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.10 2.93 2.16 3.27 2.14 3.97 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 223.38 226 225 224 224 222 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 555.00 -2220 375 -2900 -80.44 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Exports 30590.00 26200 30159 26800 30160 28500 AUD Million [+]
Imports 30035.00 30131 30256 29700 30300 32400 AUD Million [+]
Current Account -3108.00 -16700 -7654 -17900 -11808 -22900 AUD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -2.5 -3.19 percent [+]
External Debt 1886770.00 1910560 1926358 1956981 1977284 2198231 AUD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 109.70 113 113 112 110 110 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00 51573 49598 47623 49434 50650 AUD Million [+]
Capital Flows 3693.00 6676 7419 5405 5428 5953 AUD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 701300.00 724548 744724 753757 746489 747143 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 256.00 271 273 274 274 275 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.74 2.92 2.99 3.05 2.97 3.05 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 93.22 102 110 104 100 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 39 42.86 43.62 43.99 45.91 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 7831.00 -5220 -4562 -3050 -2555 -2170 AUD Million [+]
Government Spending 78644.00 79132 79508 79955 80411 85274 AUD Million [+]
Government Revenues 41840.00 40864 38614 41594 39078 42039 AUD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 34009.00 35575 36197 36113 36052 36065 AUD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 24370.60 24394 24008 23621 23476 24442 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1519.00 1673 1673 1673 1673 1673 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 36.00 34.66 34.76 34.85 34.82 34.29 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 7.00 4 6 8 6.41 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.80 54.1 56.42 55 56.45 52 [+]
Services PMI 51.50 49.8 51.31 51.2 51.27 50.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.70 -0.02 1.13 0.56 1.1 0.45 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.39 0.9 0.73 0.51 0.53 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.30 -2.97 -2.93 -3.39 -3.12 -2.77 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.44 81.92 82.09 82.03 82.04 82.03 percent [+]
New Orders 39.00 22.97 49.82 35.6 48.35 37.61 [+]
Changes in Inventories 2069.00 852 827 548 485 420 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 590.00 700 681 674 672 671 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 82628.00 83607 82901 64900 79130 59900 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 100476.00 99188 98538 98883 98865 101000 [+]
Car Production 11499.00 11700 12023 10700 11442 12700 Units [+]
Car Registrations 13815.11 13936 14002 14067 14130 14821 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.02 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0 0.1 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 9.06 7.9 6.68 6.92 5.72 6.42 [+]
Steel Production 431.68 431 423 426 427 426 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 0.30 -0.12 0.46 0.7 0.95 1.38 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.90 2.64 5.71 5.16 7.22 4.58 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.19 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.16 5.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 22.00 21 21 21 22 22 [+]
Business Inventories 1.20 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.62 0.4 percent [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 12 12 12 12 8 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 15.00 13.64 14.02 14.41 14.41 13.34 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 96.23 98.03 96.55 103 96.66 108 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.00 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.70 4.2 2.75 4.6 2.7 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 241640.00 242891 244319 245421 246561 254623 AUD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 289308.00 291543 293192 295025 296828 315890 AUD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.70 5.05 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.11 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 2602.10 2621 2649 2677 2704 2967 AUD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.40 0.41 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 123.10 123 123 123 123 123 percent of GDP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 8.65 8.65 8.67 10 8.69 11 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.92 0.74 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 4.40 0.63 0.14 1.5 0.33 0.33 percent [+]
New Home Sales 7369.00 7250 7200 7000 7455 7450 [+]
Housing Index 2.20 2.48 1.12 2.44 1.7 2.65 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.00 66.86 66.75 66.65 66.58 65.5 percent [+]
Construction Output -0.70 0.3 0.88 2.2 0.87 0.86 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 56.70 51 53.53 55 51.52 49 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 29.98 30 29.96 27.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 47 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.50 11.25 11.31 11.23 11.11 11.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50 9.25 9.43 9.5 9.5 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2.5 percent [+]