Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In the second quarter of 2017, the Australian GDP grew 0.8 percent quarter on quarter, marking 104 consecutive periods without a recession, one of the longest streaks in the world. Yet, the economy may face some headwinds as wage growth is stagnant, the housing market is slowing and subdued prices of iron ore, coal and oil and slower growth in China may lower exports revenues. This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 105.00 1100 1200 300 600 -500 AUD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.8 42.62 42.45 42.27 36.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.65 [+]
Stock Market 5997.00 5650 5600 5540 5480 4850 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.53 2.85 2.88 2.9 2.93 3.24 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 1204.62 1410 1600 1600 1600 1720 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 430724.00 433132 435405 437328 439067 447520 AUD Million [+]
Gross National Product 431914.00 436585 439747 443650 446251 454142 AUD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108233.00 108625 108976 109276 109352 108638 AUD Million [+]
GDP per capita 55670.90 56000 57220 57220 57220 59160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00 44870 45100 45100 45100 46000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 11238.00 11183 11182 11157 11107 10701 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 31936.00 32046 32101 32117 32112 31786 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 25437.00 25467 25421 25381 25360 25226 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 25732.00 25773 25826 25847 25841 25647 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23403.00 23387 23378 23370 23366 23314 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10518.00 10594 10545 10510 10531 10493 AUD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 12402.96 12412 12462 12487 12499 12495 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 707.72 704 700 697 695 673 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 19690.00 3735 6483 6437 6436 6900 Persons [+]
Full Time Employment 41900.00 6360 10159 8730 7881 7237 Persons [+]
Employment Change 61600.00 18600 19026 15461 14383 15600 Persons [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50 65.39 65.39 65.38 65.36 65.22 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.10 12.14 12.16 12.21 12.25 12.58 percent [+]
Productivity 100.80 99.65 98.88 98.46 98.25 97.91 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 100.50 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 201.30 215 225 231 233 223 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 172395.18 172597 174162 173475 171459 148271 [+]
Wages 1179.00 1190 1195 1200 1204 1228 AUD/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.00 1.9 2.18 2 2.33 3.3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 694.90 695 695 705 705 760 AUD/week [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1254.10 1244 1238 1235 1233 1223 AUD/Week [+]
Population 24.13 24.26 24.3 24.33 24.37 24.66 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Living Wage Family 3420.00 3437 3442 3444 3447 3440 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2420.00 2428 2431 2432 2433 2430 AUD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 6110.00 6165 6151 6143 6136 6163 AUD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 61.63 61.57 61.5 61.44 61.39 61.04 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00 2527 2504 2493 2481 2523 AUD/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 111.40 112 112 113 113 115 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 112.62 113 113 114 114 116 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 1.9 2.1 2 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.38 104 104 104 104 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 108.00 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 87.80 86.56 87.02 87.59 87.6 84.25 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.10 102 101 101 101 99.09 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.70 2 1.8 1.8 1.9 3 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 3.70 3.67 3.93 4.1 4.21 4.39 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 119.40 120 121 122 123 126 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 100.30 101 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.06 2 2 2 2.33 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 105.92 106 106 106 105 104 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 357.32 357 358 358 358 357 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2058.91 2072 2091 2106 2118 2154 AUD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4122.84 4110 4109 4083 4069 3925 AUD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 184396.00 185362 183725 181578 179477 162391 AUD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 85834.00 85602 84416 83555 82704 75669 AUD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 904.73 909 914 918 919 917 AUD Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.10 3.27 2.59 2.69 2.78 3.97 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 223.38 224 223 222 222 214 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 105.00 1100 1200 300 600 -500 AUD Million [+]
Exports 31871.00 31800 31500 30800 31200 34500 AUD Million [+]
Imports 31766.00 30700 30300 30500 30600 35000 AUD Million [+]
Current Account -9125.00 -1000 -8468 -8485 -8493 -22900 AUD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 percent [+]
External Debt 1898196.00 1899102 1897848 1896426 1894394 1868346 AUD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 114.70 119 120 120 120 115 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00 42233 43662 45091 46520 45958 AUD Million [+]
Capital Flows 14066.00 11787 10594 10653 10940 9647 AUD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 741500.00 673100 660400 648700 637700 554400 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 277.00 307 318 328 337 395 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.09 2.03 1.74 1.45 1.16 1.27 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 91.44 83.97 76.5 69.03 67.64 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.8 42.62 42.45 42.27 36.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2115.00 -4371 -2402 -1588 -1162 -671 AUD Million [+]
Government Spending 81684.00 82147 82402 82462 82599 82586 AUD Million [+]
Government Revenues 36394.00 29338 29659 29358 28765 22875 AUD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 38509.00 37569 36865 36126 35423 30108 AUD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 24370.60 23656 23514 23372 23230 22931 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1640.00 1187 1137 1092 1053 855 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 36.00 35.63 35.5 35.37 35.25 34.63 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 8 6 9 10 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.30 54 53 53.4 53 52 [+]
Services PMI 51.70 52.5 53 52.8 52 52.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.70 2.47 3.03 3.14 2.94 2.32 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 0.49 0.55 0.49 0.51 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.66 81.71 81.62 81.56 81.49 81.16 percent [+]
New Orders 33.00 24.01 21.31 17.77 17.71 14.98 [+]
Changes in Inventories 506.00 295 451 445 473 481 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 606.00 652 650 649 650 655 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 79233.00 64900 78508 78358 78253 59900 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 98922.00 98865 98655 98460 98271 101000 [+]
Car Production 1825.00 10700 11082 12456 13862 12700 Units [+]
Car Registrations 14078.61 14060 14186 14250 14313 14758 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.13 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 7.65 8.87 3.26 3.06 2.15 1.77 [+]
Internet Speed 11063.10 12170 12322 12490 12505 11755 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 9859878.00 9605209 9404654 9311370 9192759 8784847 IP [+]
Mining Production 2.90 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 4 percent [+]
Private Investment 1.00 1.11 1.28 1.3 1.34 1.42 percent [+]
Steel Production 440.00 455 474 489 502 558 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.19 5.19 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.25 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 21.00 22 23 23 22 25 [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.6 0.38 0.4 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 80 80 81 81 83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 12 12 11 11 8 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 14 16 16 16 17 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.30 97 96.8 97.4 98 104 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.60 4.6 1.57 2.4 2.9 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 250770.00 251690 252536 253136 253760 256596 AUD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 291915.00 293684 294500 294964 295912 297961 AUD Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.20 3.83 3.85 3.9 4.04 4.83 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 2666.48 2683 2706 2727 2746 2850 AUD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.40 0.45 0.53 0.59 0.63 0.81 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 121.90 121 121 121 120 119 percent of GDP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 11 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.05 0.9 1.03 1.03 1.02 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 0.90 4.5 -6.2 5.1 -2.2 2 percent [+]
New Home Sales 6841.00 6000 5900 6000 5800 6550 [+]
Housing Index -0.20 1.5 0.83 1.6 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.00 66.73 66.69 66.65 66.61 67.82 percent [+]
Construction Output 15.70 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.94 0.2 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 57.50 52 51.5 51 50.7 50 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 27.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 46 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.50 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50 9.46 9.49 9.51 9.53 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 1.73 1.7 1.67 1.63 2.5 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 28.00 25.94 20.99 17.19 21.92 23.64 celsius [+]
Precipitation 52.00 39.42 39.44 39.48 39.46 39.46 mm [+]