Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 3 percent
Balance of Trade 825.00 300 600 2000 487 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.90 40.7 40.7 40.7 36.5 32.9 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 0.76
0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.67
Stock Market 5932.59
points
5619 5480 5345 5213 4717
Government Bond 10Y 2.83
percent
2.77 2.91 3.06 3.22 3.94
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40
percent
2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.9
GDP 1204.62
USD Billion
1600 1600 1600 1680 1720
GDP Constant Prices 432685.00
AUD Million
433912 437363 444367 434839 468686
Gross National Product 432308.00
AUD Million
433577 437932 443980 441108 468277
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 107702.00
AUD Million
108000 111000 111000 108000 117000
GDP per capita 55670.90
USD
57220 57220 57220 58190 59160
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00
USD
45100 45100 45100 45500 46000
GDP From Agriculture 10893.00
AUD Million
12061 11357 11187 12475 11799
GDP From Construction 32280.00
AUD Million
32213 32655 33152 32117 34966
GDP From Manufacturing 25233.00
AUD Million
25401 25870 25914 25059 27332
GDP From Mining 25384.00
AUD Million
25666 25414 26069 25816 27496
GDP From Public Administration 23682.00
AUD Million
23602 23741 24321 23979 25652
GDP From Utilities 10429.00
AUD Million
10467 10661 10711 10698 11297
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50
percent
5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.6
Employed Persons 12484.15
Thousand
12550 12660 12710 12820 13500
Unemployed Persons 730.24
Thousand
720 723 717 723 721
Part Time Employment 24769.00
Persons
4284 7023 6792 6827 6900
Full Time Employment -19900.00
Persons
22790 12086 27394 24028 22871
Employment Change 4900.00
Persons
38209 19708 17100 34291 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
65.7 65.6 65.6 65.8 66
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.50
percent
13 13.2 13 12.8 13
Productivity 100.20
Index Points
99.6 99.45 99.34 99.26 98.7
Labour Costs 101.20
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Job Vacancies 220.80
Thousand
227 232 233 233 231
Job Advertisements 177084.00
179684 179102 176888 173821 145976
Wages 1191.50
AUD/Week
1200 1210 1210 1230 1300
Wages In Manufacturing 1309.40
AUD/Week
1290 1310 1310 1350 1400
Wage Growth 2.10
percent
2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.3
Minimum Wages 694.90
AUD/week
705 705 705 740 760
Population 24.13
Million
24.26 24.25 24.24 24.28 24.82
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month
3500 3500 3500 3600 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month
2420 2420 2420 2420 2420
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month
2481 2481 2481 2506 2506
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month
6200 6200 6200 6300 6300
Employment Rate 61.90
percent
62.41 62.42 62.3 62.1 62.12
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.4 0.5 1 0.4 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 112.60
Index Points
113 114 115 115 120
Core Consumer Prices 113.73
Index Points
114 115 115 116 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1
GDP Deflator 104.93
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Producer Prices 109.10
Index Points
110 110 111 111 115
Producer Prices Change 1.70
percent
1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.9
Export Prices 94.70
Index Points
90.29 87.91 90.28 87.91 90.24
Import Prices 106.30
Index Points
104 103 102 102 99.29
Food Inflation 0.50
percent
1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 3
Inflation Expectations 3.60
percent
3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9
CPI Housing Utilities 120.60
Index Points
120 122 122 122 129
CPI Transportation 103.80
Index Points
103 103 105 105 110
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.75 2 3
Interbank Rate 2.20
percent
1.87 1.87 2.12 2.37 3.37
Money Supply M0 105.27
AUD Billion
105 105 105 105 105
Money Supply M1 352.78
AUD Billion
355 358 361 364 396
Money Supply M3 2059.31
AUD Billion
2080 2096 2111 2126 2278
Banks Balance Sheet 4131.61
AUD Billion
4140 4100 4075 4050 4100
Central Bank Balance Sheet 180456.00
AUD Million
182568 182550 182550 182550 182550
Foreign Exchange Reserves 76550.00
AUD Million
74292 85176 75007 79837 78428
Loans to Private Sector 905.71
AUD Billion
906 907 907 908 910
Deposit Interest Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.85 1.85 2.2 4
Private Debt to GDP 204.90
percent
200 200 200 196 191
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 825.00
AUD Million
300 600 2000 487 -500
Exports 34229.00
AUD Million
30800 31200 33000 33572 34500
Imports 33405.00
AUD Million
30500 30600 31000 33085 35000
Current Account -14024.00
AUD Million
-12962 -12511 -19000 -12036 -22900
Current Account to GDP -3.10
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.1 -2.3
External Debt 1941517.00
AUD Million
1917039 1912017 1913834 1913177 1913351
Terms of Trade 86.70
Index Points
87.15 85.4 88.88 86.3 90.89
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00
AUD Million
51573 49598 47623 49434 53063
Capital Flows 13577.00
AUD Million
11634 11659 11648 11453 10425
Tourist Arrivals 914500.00
772400 680500 1022100 785600 1080400
Gold Reserves 72.80
Tonnes
72.8 72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79
Crude Oil Production 243.00
BBL/D/1K
273 284 294 303 376
Terrorism Index 3.09
2.07 1.79 1.51 1.46 1.23
Weapons Sales 97.00
USD Million
97 97 97 97 97
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.90
percent
40.7 40.7 40.7 36.5 32.9
Government Budget -1.90
percent of GDP
-1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3
Government Budget Value 9392.00
AUD Million
1964 -331 2175 -43 2248
Government Spending 83164.00
AUD Million
82750 82984 85409 82614 90083
Government Revenues 44765.00
AUD Million
39281 37175 39513 37359 39657
Fiscal Expenditure 35373.00
AUD Million
37317 37505 37414 37402 37409
Military Expenditure 24370.60
USD Million
24272 23892 23512 23338 25625
Asylum Applications 3281.00
Persons
2922 3022 2962 2997 2984
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20
percent
35.46 35.54 35.63 35.5 34.65
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 7.00
Index Points
9 11 10 9 6
Manufacturing PMI 63.10
56.5 56.4 57.1 56.2 52
Services PMI 56.90
Index Points
54.1 53.8 55 53.5 52.2
Industrial Production 1.70
percent
1.74 2.05 1.78 2.02 1.88
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.32 0.56 0.59 0.49 0.47
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
-0.5 -0.6 0.5 0.3 1
Capacity Utilization 82.36
percent
82.27 82.15 82.03 81.93 81.32
New Orders 31.00
Index Points
32.84 33.87 34.44 34.76 35.15
Changes in Inventories 14.00
AUD Million
333 399 412 437 463
Bankruptcies 645.00
Companies
723 668 607 650 638
Corporate Profits 81045.00
AUD Million
80040 79762 68900 79829 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 106988.00
98558 98835 99100 99009 101000
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand
14200 14200 14200 14260 14350
Leading Economic Index -0.23
percent
0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 3.36
3.51 3.88 3.6 3.81 3.71
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps
13287 13737 14067 14383 16567
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP
9930375 9945263 9942116 9949235 9953818
Private Investment -0.20
percent
0.41 1.64 0.74 1.4 1.11
Mining Production 1.10
percent
1.1 0.9 1.2 2.98 4
Steel Production 481.62
Thousand Tonnes
450 443 443 444 444
Business Inventories 0.20
percent
0.29 0.5 0.38 0.4 0.4
Competitiveness Index 5.19
Points
5.21 5.21 5.21 5.19 5.25
Competitiveness Rank 21.00
23 21 23 21 25
Composite Pmi 55.40
Index Points
55.5 55.1 53.9 53.5 56.5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
12 11 11 11 8
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
16 16 16 14 17
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.40
Index Points
102 101 104 99 104
Retail Sales MoM 0.60
percent
-0.18 0.28 0.07 0.29 -0.23
Retail Sales YoY 2.70
percent
2.46 2.52 5.3 2.6 3.6
Consumer Spending 254902.00
AUD Million
254556 256150 261784 254858 276111
Disposable Personal Income 296667.00
AUD Million
299003 300853 301603 302970 306712
Personal Savings 2.70
percent
3.47 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48
Consumer Credit 2703.10
AUD Billion
2739 2765 2790 2815 3056
Private Sector Credit 0.40
percent
0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34
Households Debt To Gdp 120.90
percent of GDP
121 120 120 120 118
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent
8.65 8.65 8.65 8.83 11
Gasoline Prices 1.03
USD/Liter
1.07 1.01 0.95 0.9 0.62
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits -6.20
percent
5.1 -2.2 3.2 0.4 2
New Home Sales 5526.00
5400 5200 5000 4900 5550
Housing Index 1.00
percent
1.1 1.2 2 -0.4 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 65.00
percent
64 64 64 63.5 64
Construction Output -19.40
percent
1.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.2
Construction Pmi 57.20
Index Points
54.8 55.7 56 55.6 50
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 27.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius
18.27 16.54 25.05 26.96 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm
26.87 19.33 36.65 71.17 39.33