Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In the second quarter of 2017, the Australian GDP grew 0.8 percent quarter on quarter, marking 104 consecutive periods without a recession, one of the longest streaks in the world. Yet, the economy may face some headwinds as wage growth is stagnant, the housing market is slowing and subdued prices of iron ore, coal and oil and slower growth in China may lower exports revenues. This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 989.00 1100 1200 300 600 -500 AUD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.8 42.62 42.45 42.27 36.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.65 [+]
Stock Market 5894.00 5650 5600 5540 5480 4850 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.80 2.85 2.88 2.9 2.93 3.24 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 1204.62 1410 1600 1600 1600 1720 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 427948.00 432225 434087 435700 437126 443469 AUD Million [+]
Gross National Product 419432.00 419353 419028 418773 418508 416136 AUD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 105837.00 106503 106543 106593 106539 105665 AUD Million [+]
GDP per capita 55670.90 56000 57220 57220 57220 59160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00 44870 45100 45100 45100 46000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 11183.00 11088 11035 10985 10936 10520 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 32676.00 32779 32814 32803 32787 32477 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24542.00 24586 24555 24541 24529 24443 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 29573.00 29743 29775 29785 29784 29624 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23317.00 23291 23288 23283 23276 23225 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10723.00 10789 10750 10765 10764 10737 AUD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 12290.20 12349 12379 12393 12400 12388 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 711.46 707 704 702 699 683 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 13693.00 6372 6437 6445 6445 6900 Persons [+]
Full Time Employment 6100.00 9865 8040 7431 7183 7039 Persons [+]
Employment Change 19800.00 18600 15742 14372 13817 15600 Persons [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.20 65.18 65.16 65.14 65.13 64.99 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.60 12.58 12.61 12.64 12.67 12.87 percent [+]
Productivity 102.20 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 99.80 99.1 99.06 98.76 98.72 97.62 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 201.30 215 225 231 233 223 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 180700.00 182327 181409 178977 175715 149466 [+]
Wages 1179.00 1190 1195 1200 1204 1228 AUD/Week [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1254.10 1244 1238 1235 1233 1223 AUD/Week [+]
Wage Growth 1.90 1.9 2.12 2 2.27 3.3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 694.90 695 695 705 705 760 AUD/week [+]
Population 24.13 24.26 24.3 24.33 24.37 24.66 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 5350.00 5537 5538 5538 5538 5538 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2582.40 2586 2587 2586 2586 2586 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2260.43 2231 2230 2231 2230 2231 AUD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 61.24 61.28 61.22 61.18 61.13 60.81 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.70 111 111 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 112.23 113 114 114 115 118 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 1.9 2.1 2 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.44 104 104 103 103 102 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.80 108 109 109 109 108 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.70 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 90.50 80.59 81.23 83.04 83.94 80.3 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.80 103 103 103 103 101 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.90 2 1.8 1.8 1.9 3 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 4.30 4.13 4.27 4.33 4.36 4.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 117.20 118 118 119 119 119 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 100.30 101 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.05 2 2 2 2.39 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 105.83 106 106 106 105 104 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 357.66 360 361 361 361 359 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2043.16 2061 2071 2079 2085 2096 AUD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4187.32 4210 4237 4246 4251 4231 AUD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 159438.00 159589 157399 155271 153206 137028 AUD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 74871.00 73893 72976 72080 71204 64153 AUD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 898.29 908 912 915 916 913 AUD Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.10 3.27 2.59 2.69 2.78 3.97 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 223.38 224 223 222 222 214 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 989.00 1100 1200 300 600 -500 AUD Million [+]
Exports 32229.00 31800 31500 30800 31200 34500 AUD Million [+]
Imports 31240.00 30700 30300 30500 30600 35000 AUD Million [+]
Current Account -9562.00 -1000 -9125 -8965 -8962 -22900 AUD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 percent [+]
External Debt 1900341.00 1888468 1883843 1880612 1876931 1846085 AUD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 103.60 95.73 94.94 95 95.17 92.77 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00 42233 43662 45091 46520 45958 AUD Million [+]
Capital Flows 3798.00 5817 5455 5408 5695 6560 AUD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 702800.00 673100 660400 648700 637700 554400 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 271.00 307 318 328 337 395 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.74 2.03 1.74 1.45 1.16 1.27 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 91.44 83.97 76.5 69.03 67.64 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.8 42.62 42.45 42.27 36.5 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -9692.00 -3372 -2080 -1379 -1003 -634 AUD Million [+]
Government Spending 80079.00 80613 80919 81011 81183 81357 AUD Million [+]
Government Revenues 32786.00 33858 33385 32647 31793 24904 AUD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 42478.00 38615 37837 37083 36356 30840 AUD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 24370.60 23656 23514 23372 23230 22931 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1308.00 1187 1137 1092 1053 855 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 36.00 35.63 35.5 35.37 35.25 34.63 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 7.00 8 6 9 10 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 54 53 53.4 53 52 [+]
Services PMI 52.10 52.5 53 52.8 52 52.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.70 2.47 3.03 3.14 2.94 2.32 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 0.49 0.55 0.49 0.51 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.92 81.71 81.62 81.56 81.49 81.16 percent [+]
New Orders 38.00 24.01 21.31 17.77 17.71 14.98 [+]
Changes in Inventories -419.00 219 366 391 413 421 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 741.00 729 712 701 693 665 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 78688.00 64900 74632 74926 75042 59900 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 98882.00 99095 98908 98709 98517 101000 [+]
Car Production 10499.00 10700 14861 16156 17161 12700 Units [+]
Car Registrations 14078.61 14060 14186 14250 14313 14758 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.10 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment -2.81 -1.48 -1.6 -1.14 1.27 0.67 [+]
Private Investment 0.80 1.01 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.43 percent [+]
Steel Production 461.27 485 499 511 521 563 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 2.90 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 4 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.19 5.19 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.25 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 21.00 22 23 23 22 25 [+]
Business Inventories -0.40 0.6 0.39 0.41 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 80 80 81 81 83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 12 12 11 11 8 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 15.00 14 16 16 16 17 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.35 97 96.8 97.4 98 104 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.56 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 4.6 3 3.52 3.8 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 243348.00 246122 247353 248476 249480 255192 AUD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 292337.00 294408 295576 296312 297380 300709 AUD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.60 4.82 4.9 4.99 5.06 5.68 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 2650.14 2694 2724 2751 2776 2919 AUD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.50 0.6 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.83 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 122.00 120 120 120 119 118 percent of GDP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 11 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.98 0.9 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 0.40 4.5 -6.2 5.1 -2.2 2 percent [+]
New Home Sales 7285.00 6000 5900 6000 5800 6550 [+]
Housing Index 1.90 1.5 1.26 1.6 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.00 66.73 66.69 66.65 66.61 67.82 percent [+]
Construction Output 9.30 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.94 0.2 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 54.70 52 51.5 51 50.7 50 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 27.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45.2 45.25 45.29 45.34 45.66 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.50 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50 9.46 9.49 9.51 9.53 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 1.73 1.7 1.67 1.63 2.5 percent [+]