Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent
Balance of Trade 1873.00 600 2000 1519 1497 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.90 42.5 42.5 41 41 38 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 0.73
0.73 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.64
Stock Market 6345.00
points
6047 5913 5783 5655 5171
Government Bond 10Y 2.52
percent
2.71 2.84 2.98 3.12 3.77
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent
2.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.9
GDP 1323.42
USD Billion
1450 1450 1580 1580 1720
GDP Constant Prices 437246.00
AUD Million
437363 444367 449926 441832 468686
Gross National Product 440282.00
AUD Million
437378 444793 453050 441554 469134
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108617.00
AUD Million
111000 111000 112000 110000 117000
GDP per capita 55925.93
USD
56220 56220 56890 56890 57160
GDP per capita PPP 44648.71
USD
45100 45100 45500 45500 46000
GDP From Agriculture 10243.00
AUD Million
10729 10699 10540 11699 11285
GDP From Construction 32447.00
AUD Million
32660 33556 33388 32832 35393
GDP From Manufacturing 25955.00
AUD Million
25864 26028 26708 25862 27453
GDP From Mining 26142.00
AUD Million
25407 26102 26900 26285 27531
GDP From Public Administration 24022.00
AUD Million
23739 24319 24719 24035 25650
GDP From Utilities 10448.00
AUD Million
10659 10744 10751 10666 11332
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6
Employed Persons 12575.16
Thousand
12660 12710 12820 12900 13500
Unemployed Persons 705.98
Thousand
712 709 707 706 702
Part Time Employment -23189.00
Persons
8537 7589 7526 7524 6900
Full Time Employment 19300.00
Persons
13447 11039 10482 10397 10376
Employment Change -3900.00
Persons
23014 17100 22869 22881 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
65.6 65.6 65.8 65.7 66
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10
percent
12.2 12 12.8 12.2 13
Productivity 100.90
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
Labour Costs 101.10
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Job Vacancies 234.20
Thousand
246 253 257 259 257
Job Advertisements 178321.99
174971 174286 173779 173431 172755
Wages 1207.40
AUD/Week
1210 1210 1230 1230 1300
Wages In Manufacturing 1304.50
AUD/Week
1310 1310 1350 1350 1400
Wage Growth 2.10
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 1.99 3.3
Minimum Wages 719.20
AUD/week
719 719 740 740 760
Population 24.70
Million
25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 26
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.25 65 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 66 66 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month
3500 3500 3600 3442 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month
2431 2432 2431 2431 2430
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month
2481 2481 2506 2494 2506
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month
6200 6200 6200 6144 6300
Employment Rate 62.10
percent
62.12 62.15 62.17 62.19 62.22
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 113.00
Index Points
114 115 115 115 121
Core Consumer Prices 114.25
Index Points
115 115 116 116 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.82 1.83 2.1
GDP Deflator 106.16
Index Points
107 108 108 108 112
Producer Prices 109.40
Index Points
110 111 111 111 115
Producer Prices Change 1.50
percent
2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9
Export Prices 96.50
Index Points
96.2 94.78 93.27 92.78 94
Import Prices 110.00
Index Points
110 110 109 109 106
Food Inflation 0.30
percent
1.9 1.7 2.1 2.15 3
Inflation Expectations 4.00
percent
4 3.9 4.1 4 3.9
CPI Housing Utilities 120.80
Index Points
122 123 123 123 129
CPI Transportation 105.50
Index Points
103 105 106 108 111
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2
Interbank Rate 2.16
percent
2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.66
Money Supply M0 107.89
AUD Billion
108 108 108 108 108
Money Supply M1 353.17
AUD Billion
360 363 366 369 399
Money Supply M3 2074.85
AUD Billion
2084 2094 2104 2114 2197
Banks Balance Sheet 4268.34
AUD Billion
4100 4075 4050 4060 4100
Central Bank Balance Sheet 166277.00
AUD Million
173773 173661 173658 173658 173658
Foreign Exchange Reserves 69102.00
AUD Million
74152 75044 75031 75042 75051
Loans to Private Sector 922.08
AUD Billion
920 923 926 928 942
Deposit Interest Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4
Private Debt to GDP 204.90
percent
200 200 196 196 191
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1873.00
AUD Million
600 2000 1519 1497 -500
Exports 36439.00
AUD Million
31200 33000 36599 36600 34500
Imports 34567.00
AUD Million
30600 31000 35080 35103 35000
Current Account -10469.00
AUD Million
-10962 -19000 -11361 -11636 -22900
Current Account to GDP -3.10
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.3
External Debt 2005834.00
AUD Million
2065766 2083966 2105488 2127384 2353772
Terms of Trade 87.70
Index Points
87.22 86.74 85.37 85.48 88.47
Foreign Direct Investment 60499.00
AUD Million
51675 52665 50966 49267 56688
Capital Flows 7339.00
AUD Million
10767 11251 11517 11692 11645
Tourist Arrivals 609300.00
680500 1022100 785600 780800 1080400
Gold Reserves 72.80
Tonnes
72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79
Crude Oil Production 276.00
BBL/D/1K
276 276 276 276 276
Terrorism Index 3.09
2.18 1.93 1.82 1.71 2.39
Weapons Sales 97.00
USD Million
94.08 88.88 89.28 89.68 102
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.90
percent
42.5 42.5 41 41 38
Government Budget -1.90
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3
Government Budget Value 10417.00
AUD Million
4379 8202 5759 8399 9014
Government Spending 84615.00
AUD Million
82688 85572 87069 84339 90255
Government Revenues 49256.00
AUD Million
42339 45435 43612 46262 46873
Fiscal Expenditure 38839.00
AUD Million
37960 37801 37853 37863 37859
Military Expenditure 26102.32
USD Million
25466 24976 24690 24404 25993
Asylum Applications 2042.00
Persons
2091 2088 2089 2089 2089
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20
percent
35.96 35.97 35.97 35.97 36.01
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 7.00
Index Points
11 10 9 6.06 6
Manufacturing PMI 52.00
56.4 57.1 56.2 55.8 52
Services PMI 53.60
Index Points
53.8 55 53.5 55.11 52.2
Industrial Production 4.40
percent
2.41 2.47 1.29 2.23 2.63
Industrial Production Mom 2.20
percent
0.52 0.15 0.1 0.59 0.48
Manufacturing Production 6.50
percent
-0.6 0.5 1.25 2.58 1
Capacity Utilization 82.19
percent
82.25 82.27 82.27 82.27 82.27
New Orders 49.00
Index Points
47.51 38.51 45.01 43.89 42.7
Changes in Inventories 1222.00
AUD Million
619 505 530 489 450
Bankruptcies 669.00
Companies
679 670 669 668 668
Corporate Profits 86499.00
AUD Million
87481 68900 86032 86016 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 130300.00
113322 99100 110139 110158 101000
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand
14200 14200 14260 14260 14350
Leading Economic Index 0.01
percent
0.2 0.1 0 -0.2 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 1.54
-4.81 2.15 -2.76 3.48 0.37
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps
13737 14067 14383 14695 16567
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP
9945263 9942116 9949235 9951342 9953818
Private Investment 0.40
percent
1.01 1.02 1.09 1.15 1.25
Mining Production 4.40
percent
0.9 1.2 3.56 4.38 4
Steel Production 506.96
Thousand Tonnes
498 501 502 502 502
Business Inventories 0.70
percent
0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
Competitiveness Index 5.19
Points
5.21 5.21 5.19 5.19 5.25
Competitiveness Rank 21.00
22 23 20 19 25
Composite Pmi 52.30
Index Points
55.1 53.9 53.5 53.8 56.5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 76 76 76 74
Corruption Rank 13.00
11 11 11 10 8
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
16 16 12 11 17
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.60
Index Points
101 104 99 105 104
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
0.32 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 2.80
percent
3.14 2.3 3.2 3.23 2.6
Consumer Spending 256004.00
AUD Million
256219 262019 263428 259144 276357
Disposable Personal Income 297957.00
AUD Million
301900 303767 305675 307557 325777
Personal Savings 2.10
percent
2.5 2.49 2.56 2.48 2.49
Consumer Credit 2738.77
AUD Billion
2762 2785 2807 2829 3023
Private Sector Credit 0.30
percent
0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
Households Debt To Gdp 121.70
percent of GDP
122 122 122 122 123
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent
8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 9.15
Gasoline Prices 1.09
USD/Liter
1.09 1.03 0.97 0.92 0.49
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 6.40
percent
-2.2 3.2 0.39 0.39 2
New Home Sales 5065.00
5200 5000 4900 5791 5550
Housing Index -0.70
percent
1.2 2 -0.4 0.57 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 65.00
percent
64 64 63.5 63.5 64
Construction Output 0.20
percent
0.8 1.5 0.6 0.66 0.2
Construction Pmi 52.00
Index Points
55.7 56 55.6 54 50
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 27.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius
16.54 25.05 26.96 19.26 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm
19.33 36.65 71.17 40.27 39.33