Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.5 5.3 5.1 5 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent
Balance of Trade 1604.00 2000 1550 1525 1514 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.90 42.5 41 41 41 38 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 0.71
 0.71 0.71 0.7 0.7 0.68
Stock Market 5833.12
points		 6121 6078 6035 5992 5823
Government Bond 10Y 2.66
percent		 2.71 2.75 2.79 2.83 3
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent		 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40
percent		 3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
GDP 1323.42
USD Billion		 1450 1580 1580 1580 1720
GDP Constant Prices 441942.00
AUD Million		 446186 449989 452991 452549 468317
Gross National Product 442164.00
AUD Million		 444656 452438 453218 452776 466711
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 110021.00
AUD Million		 112000 113000 113000 113000 117000
GDP per capita 55925.93
USD		 56220 56890 56890 56890 57160
GDP per capita PPP 44648.71
USD		 45100 45500 45500 45500 46000
GDP From Agriculture 10402.00
AUD Million		 10699 10600 10662 10652 11229
GDP From Construction 33503.00
AUD Million		 33840 33751 34341 34307 35518
GDP From Manufacturing 25521.00
AUD Million		 26095 26621 26159 26134 27389
GDP From Mining 26745.00
AUD Million		 26153 27048 27414 27387 27450
GDP From Public Administration 24245.00
AUD Million		 24396 24742 24851 24827 25606
GDP From Utilities 10636.00
AUD Million		 10778 10790 10902 10891 11313
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00
percent		 5.5 5.3 5.1 5 5.3
Employed Persons 12636.31
Thousand 		12710 12820 12900 12893 13500
Unemployed Persons 665.75
Thousand 		657 645 636 630 619
Part Time Employment -14698.00
Persons		 7688 6824 7056 7029 6900
Full Time Employment 20300.00
Persons		 15279 13510 13050 12930 12890
Employment Change 5600.00
Persons		 17100 22489 22705 22683 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.40
percent		 65.6 65.8 65.7 65.47 66
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.40
percent		 12 12.8 12.2 12.2 13
Productivity 101.80
Index Points		 101 101 102 102 102
Labour Costs 100.60
Index Points		 101 101 101 101 101
Job Vacancies 240.90
Thousand		 243 243 241 239 237
Job Advertisements 175554.51
 174616 173782 173196 172803 172048
Wages 1207.40
AUD/Week		 1210 1230 1230 1230 1300
Wages In Manufacturing 1304.50
AUD/Week		 1310 1350 1350 1338 1400
Wage Growth 2.10
percent		 2.4 2.4 1.99 2 3.3
Minimum Wages 719.20
AUD/week		 719 740 740 740 760
Population 24.70
Million		 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.32 26
Retirement Age Women 65.50
 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month		 3500 3600 3442 3441 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month		 2432 2431 2431 2431 2430
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month		 2481 2506 2494 2500 2506
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month		 6200 6200 6144 6148 6300
Employment Rate 62.20
percent		 62.26 62.3 62.33 62.35 62.4
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent		 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.45 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 113.00
Index Points		 114 115 116 115 120
Core Consumer Prices 114.25
Index Points		 115 116 116 116 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent		 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
GDP Deflator 106.48
Index Points		 107 107 108 108 111
Producer Prices 109.40
Index Points		 111 111 111 112 115
Producer Prices Change 1.50
percent		 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.9
Export Prices 96.50
Index Points		 94.78 93.27 92.78 93.18 94
Import Prices 110.00
Index Points		 110 109 109 108 106
Food Inflation 0.30
percent		 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 2
Inflation Expectations 4.00
percent		 3.9 4.1 4 3.86 3.9
CPI Housing Utilities 120.80
Index Points		 122 123 124 123 128
CPI Transportation 105.50
Index Points		 105 106 108 108 110
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2
Interbank Rate 2.44
percent		 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.94
Money Supply M0 108.67
AUD Billion		 109 109 109 109 109
Money Supply M1 355.11
AUD Billion		 358 361 364 367 392
Money Supply M3 2091.47
AUD Billion		 2114 2131 2147 2164 2298
Banks Balance Sheet 4268.34
AUD Billion		 4075 4050 4060 4332 4100
Central Bank Balance Sheet 168431.00
AUD Million		 169622 169562 169561 169561 169561
Foreign Exchange Reserves 73681.00
AUD Million		 74728 74088 74191 74186 74183
Loans to Private Sector 933.07
AUD Billion		 947 957 965 973 1014
Deposit Interest Rate 1.90
percent		 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4
Private Debt to GDP 205.50
percent		 200 196 196 196 191
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1604.00
AUD Million		 2000 1550 1525 1514 -500
Exports 36562.00
AUD Million		 33000 36783 36786 36786 34500
Imports 34958.00
AUD Million		 31000 35233 35260 35272 35000
Current Account -13472.00
AUD Million 		-19000 -13023 -12978 -12989 -22900
Current Account to GDP -3.10
percent		 -2.6 -3 -3 -3 -3.3
External Debt 2045588.00
AUD Million		 2092303 2113446 2135704 2159481 2366661
Terms of Trade 87.70
Index Points		 86.74 85.37 85.48 86.35 88.47
Foreign Direct Investment 60499.00
AUD Million		 52665 50966 49267 47569 56688
Capital Flows 12538.00
AUD Million		 13482 12477 12526 12690 12677
Tourist Arrivals 741700.00
 1022100 785600 780800 722800 1080400
Gold Reserves 68.70
Tonnes		 68.69 67.36 67.36 67.18 67.37
Crude Oil Production 279.00
BBL/D/1K		 278 277 277 277 277
Terrorism Index 3.09
 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09
Weapons Sales 97.00
USD Million		 88.88 89.28 89.68 90.09 102
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.90
percent		 42.5 41 41 41 38
Government Budget -1.90
percent of GDP		 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3
Government Budget Value 80.00
AUD Million		 -2810 -5167 -2746 -4496 -2120
Government Spending 85568.00
AUD Million		 85840 86996 87707 87622 90098
Government Revenues 38390.00
AUD Million		 35023 33513 35895 34114 36497
Fiscal Expenditure 38309.00
AUD Million		 38295 38680 38641 38611 38617
Military Expenditure 26102.32
USD Million		 24976 24690 24404 24118 25993
Asylum Applications 2042.00
Persons		 2282 2298 2292 2294 2294
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20
percent		 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.00
Index Points		 10 9 5.99 6.02 6
Manufacturing PMI 59.00
 57.1 56.2 55.8 57.34 52
Services PMI 52.50
Index Points		 55 53.5 54.51 54.51 52.2
Industrial Production 3.50
percent		 2.85 1.41 2.24 2.62 2.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent		 0.06 0.03 0.59 0.57 0.49
Manufacturing Production 1.90
percent		 0.5 -0.67 1.91 2.47 1
Capacity Utilization 82.10
percent		 82.18 82.17 82.17 82.17 82.17
New Orders 31.00
Index Points		 30.1 36.96 35.44 32.32 34.61
Changes in Inventories 1160.00
AUD Million		 662 591 559 524 466
Bankruptcies 764.00
Companies		 675 680 682 682 682
Corporate Profits 88467.00
AUD Million		 68900 87184 87048 86998 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 85551.00
 99100 103819 102978 102685 101000
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand		 14200 14260 14260 14505 14350
Leading Economic Index -0.07
percent		 0.1 0 -0.2 0 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 1.54
 2.15 -2.76 3.48 -0.7 0.37
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps		 14067 14383 14695 14967 16567
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP		 9942116 9949235 9951342 9951220 9953818
Private Investment -2.50
percent		 0.34 0.7 0.68 0.96 1.23
Mining Production 4.50
percent		 1.2 4.79 4.78 3.37 4
Steel Production 520.00
Thousand Tonnes		 516 516 515 515 515
Business Inventories 0.60
percent		 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.51 0.4
Competitiveness Index 78.85
Points		 79.35 79.35 79.35 79.35 81.85
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
 14 14 14 14 14
Composite Pmi 52.50
Index Points		 53.9 53.5 53.8 52.16 56.5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points		 77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
 13 13 13 13 13
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
 16 12 11 11 17
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.50
Index Points		 104 99 102 102 104
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent		 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Retail Sales YoY 3.40
percent		 2.3 3.63 3.69 3.7 2.6
Consumer Spending 258440.00
AUD Million		 263018 263688 264901 264643 276063
Disposable Personal Income 298813.00
AUD Million		 302807 304614 306406 308164 323574
Personal Savings 1.00
percent		 1.44 1.56 1.64 1.51 1.56
Consumer Credit 2769.09
AUD Billion		 2813 2847 2879 2912 3175
Private Sector Credit 0.50
percent		 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38
Households Debt To Gdp 122.20
percent of GDP		 124 124 125 125 126
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent		 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 9.15
Gasoline Prices 1.13
USD/Liter		 0.98 0.93 0.88 0.81 0.69
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits -9.40
percent		 3.2 0.36 0.37 0.39 2
New Home Sales 4767.00
 5000 4900 5541 5538 5550
Housing Index -0.70
percent		 -1.5 -0.4 -0.57 -0.54 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 65.00
percent		 64 63.5 63.5 64.38 64
Construction Output 1.60
percent		 1.5 0.6 0.55 1.23 0.2
Construction Pmi 49.30
Index Points		 56 55.6 54 48.11 50
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent		 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent		 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent		 2 2 2 2 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius		 25.05 26.96 19.26 23.25 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm		 36.65 71.17 40.27 40.27 39.33