Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In the first three months of 2017, the Australian GDP grew 0.3 percent quarter on quarter, marking 103 consecutive periods without a recession, one of the longest streaks in the world. Yet, the economy may face some headwinds as wage growth is stagnant, the housing market is slowing and subdued prices of iron ore, coal and oil and slower growth in China may lower exports revenues. This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 856.00 550 100 -140 500 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.86 43.62 43.99 44.36 45.91 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.65 [+]
Stock Market 5747.11 5730 5670 5610 5550 4920 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.63 2.65 2.67 2.7 2.72 3.01 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 1204.62 1410 1410 1600 1600 1720 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 423935.00 428907 431436 433658 436044 459154 AUD Million [+]
Gross National Product 421097.00 426142 428283 430484 432937 457151 AUD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 103231.00 103763 104007 103973 104095 104715 AUD Million [+]
GDP per capita 55670.90 56000 56000 57220 57220 59160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00 44370 44370 45000 45000 46000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10369.00 10017 9794 9749 9766 9890 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 32130.00 32165 32207 32159 32227 32197 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24033.00 24035 24100 24149 24147 24121 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 29319.00 29968 30311 30592 30911 33866 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23388.00 23507 23697 23844 23966 25252 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10965.00 10901 10975 10988 11018 11340 AUD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 12201.37 12247 12313 12374 12430 12798 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 730.60 705 725 724 723 722 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 48242.00 5000 7088 6950 6955 6900 Persons [+]
Full Time Employment -20300.00 21752 12563 8839 7728 7169 Persons [+]
Employment Change 27900.00 10000 18600 23699 23698 15600 Persons [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.10 64.9 65.06 65.06 65.06 65.06 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90 12.9 12.92 12.92 12.92 12.92 percent [+]
Productivity 102.10 104 105 104 104 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 99.30 98.86 98.49 98.46 98.21 97.14 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 189.20 190 189 188 188 187 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 177879.00 182036 186686 189837 191963 196260 [+]
Wages 1179.00 1184 1189 1194 1199 1250 AUD/Week [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1254.10 1269 1282 1289 1295 1365 AUD/Week [+]
Wage Growth 1.90 1.93 2.9 2 2.01 3.3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 694.90 688 690 709 716 760 AUD/week [+]
Population 24.13 24.19 24.28 24.28 24.28 25.62 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 5350.00 5537 5537 5538 5538 5538 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2582.40 2588 2588 2588 2588 2588 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2260.43 2229 2231 2230 2231 2231 AUD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 61.46 61.59 61.56 61.5 61.49 61.51 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.70 111 112 112 113 118 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 112.23 113 113 114 115 121 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 105.17 107 108 108 109 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.80 108 109 109 110 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.70 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 90.50 84.54 80.44 78.82 81.28 84.4 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.80 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.90 1.7 2 1.7 1.8 3 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 4.20 3.93 4 4 3.99 3.97 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 117.20 118 118 119 119 121 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 100.30 100 101 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.97 1.94 2 2 2 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 104.10 104 104 104 104 104 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 351.81 356 360 364 368 407 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2038.22 2073 2108 2142 2176 2501 AUD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4187.32 4209 4230 4242 4269 4414 AUD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 168905.00 168308 168372 168371 168371 168371 AUD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 74660.00 73106 72574 72822 72979 73088 AUD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 893.82 905 916 926 934 987 AUD Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.10 2.16 3.27 2.14 2.15 3.97 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 223.38 225 224 224 223 222 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 856.00 550 100 -140 500 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Exports 31779.00 31450 30800 30160 30800 28500 AUD Million [+]
Imports 30923.00 30900 30700 30300 30300 32400 AUD Million [+]
Current Account -3108.00 -7654 -17900 -11808 -12455 -22900 AUD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 percent [+]
External Debt 1886770.00 1926358 1956981 1977284 1999923 2198231 AUD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 109.70 113 112 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00 49598 47623 49434 51246 50650 AUD Million [+]
Capital Flows 3693.00 7419 5405 5428 6312 5953 AUD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 605100.00 647306 639998 636709 639514 638969 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 271.00 277 278 278 278 278 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.74 2.99 3.05 2.97 2.89 3.05 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 102 110 104 97.65 100 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 42.86 43.62 43.99 44.36 45.91 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 6165.00 -5457 -3446 -2735 -2261 -1844 AUD Million [+]
Government Spending 78644.00 79508 79955 80411 80852 85274 AUD Million [+]
Government Revenues 43640.00 40324 43286 40906 43651 43890 AUD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 37475.00 36804 36634 36677 36689 36685 AUD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 24370.60 24008 23621 23476 23332 24442 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1519.00 1673 1673 1673 1673 1673 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 36.00 34.76 34.85 34.82 34.78 34.29 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 12.00 7 8 6 9 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.00 54.3 54 53 53.4 52 [+]
Services PMI 56.40 53.2 52.5 53 52.8 52.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.70 1.13 0.56 1.1 0.69 0.45 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.39 0.73 0.51 0.53 0.48 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.30 -1.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.93 82.02 81.97 81.97 81.96 81.96 percent [+]
New Orders 39.00 49.82 35.6 48.35 37.81 37.61 [+]
Changes in Inventories 2069.00 827 548 485 437 420 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 792.00 721 706 703 702 702 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 82628.00 82901 64900 79130 78393 59900 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 99911.00 100048 100345 100486 100376 101000 [+]
Car Production 11193.00 12116 10700 11596 11637 12700 Units [+]
Car Registrations 13815.11 14002 14067 14130 14193 14821 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.12 -0.3 0.2 0 0 0.1 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment -2.81 -4.49 -1.2 -2.93 -0.19 -1.3 [+]
Private Investment 0.30 0.46 0.7 0.95 1.01 1.38 percent [+]
Steel Production 448.77 435 437 438 438 438 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 0.90 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 4 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.19 5.19 5.19 5.21 5.21 5.25 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 22.00 22 22 23 23 25 [+]
Business Inventories 1.20 0.6 0.6 0.62 0.58 0.4 percent [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 12 12 12 11 8 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 15.00 14.02 14.41 14.41 14.41 13.34 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 95.50 96.64 97 96.76 96.76 104 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.30 3.45 4.6 3.49 3.5 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 241640.00 244319 245421 246561 247570 254623 AUD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 289308.00 293192 295025 296828 298602 315890 AUD Million [+]
Personal Savings 4.70 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.1 5.11 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 2626.87 2659 2691 2723 2753 3032 AUD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.60 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.44 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 123.10 123 123 123 123 123 percent of GDP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 11 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.96 0.95 0.9 0.95 0.95 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 10.90 0.8 1.5 0.32 0.32 0.33 percent [+]
New Home Sales 6934.00 7200 7000 7365 7364 7450 [+]
Housing Index 2.20 1.12 2.44 1.7 2.83 2.65 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.00 66.75 66.65 66.58 66.51 65.5 percent [+]
Construction Output -0.70 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 60.50 53.5 52 51.5 51 50 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 27.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.50 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2.5 percent [+]