Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade 977.00 300 600 2000 962 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.90 40.7 40.7 40.7 36.5 32.9 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 0.74
0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.67
Stock Market 6221.21
points
5619 5480 5345 5213 4717
Government Bond 10Y 2.66
percent
2.77 2.91 3.06 3.22 3.94
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent
2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9
GDP 1204.62
USD Billion
1600 1600 1600 1680 1720
GDP Constant Prices 437246.00
AUD Million
433912 437363 444367 449926 468686
Gross National Product 440282.00
AUD Million
433638 437378 444793 453050 469134
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108617.00
AUD Million
108000 111000 111000 112000 117000
GDP per capita 55670.90
USD
57220 57220 57220 58190 59160
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00
USD
45100 45100 45100 45500 46000
GDP From Agriculture 10243.00
AUD Million
11489 10729 10699 10540 11285
GDP From Construction 32447.00
AUD Million
32243 32660 33556 33388 35393
GDP From Manufacturing 25955.00
AUD Million
25398 25864 26028 26708 27453
GDP From Mining 26142.00
AUD Million
25814 25407 26102 26900 27531
GDP From Public Administration 24022.00
AUD Million
23604 23739 24319 24719 25650
GDP From Utilities 10448.00
AUD Million
10475 10659 10744 10751 11332
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40
percent
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6
Employed Persons 12518.30
Thousand
12550 12660 12710 12820 13500
Unemployed Persons 714.61
Thousand
720 719 717 716 713
Part Time Employment 32648.00
Persons
-3724 8387 7304 7392 6900
Full Time Employment -20600.00
Persons
10772 7790 8923 9255 9403
Employment Change 12000.00
Persons
18776 19803 17100 20440 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
65.7 65.6 65.6 65.8 66
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.60
percent
13 13.2 13 12.8 13
Productivity 100.90
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
Labour Costs 101.10
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Job Vacancies 220.80
Thousand
227 232 233 233 231
Job Advertisements 179244.94
179456 181313 182561 183386 184991
Wages 1191.50
AUD/Week
1200 1210 1210 1230 1300
Wages In Manufacturing 1309.40
AUD/Week
1290 1310 1310 1350 1400
Wage Growth 2.10
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.3
Minimum Wages 719.20
AUD/week
695 719 719 740 760
Population 24.70
Million
25 25.2 25.3 25.4 26
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month
3500 3500 3500 3600 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month
2420 2420 2420 2420 2420
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month
2481 2481 2481 2506 2506
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month
6200 6200 6200 6300 6300
Employment Rate 61.90
percent
61.9 61.9 61.9 61.9 61.9
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.4 0.8 0.3 0.4 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 112.60
Index Points
113 114 115 115 120
Core Consumer Prices 113.73
Index Points
114 115 115 116 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1
GDP Deflator 106.16
Index Points
107 107 108 108 112
Producer Prices 109.10
Index Points
110 110 111 111 115
Producer Prices Change 1.70
percent
1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.9
Export Prices 94.70
Index Points
90.29 87.91 90.28 87.91 90.24
Import Prices 106.30
Index Points
104 103 102 102 99.29
Food Inflation 0.50
percent
0.8 1.9 1.7 2.1 3
Inflation Expectations 4.20
percent
3.6 4 3.9 4.1 3.9
CPI Housing Utilities 120.60
Index Points
120 122 122 122 129
CPI Transportation 103.80
Index Points
103 103 105 105 110
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.11
percent
2.11 2.11 2.11 2.36 3.61
Money Supply M0 108.11
AUD Billion
108 108 108 108 108
Money Supply M1 354.96
AUD Billion
357 360 363 366 398
Money Supply M3 2062.09
AUD Billion
2068 2076 2084 2091 2157
Banks Balance Sheet 4224.39
AUD Billion
4140 4100 4075 4050 4100
Central Bank Balance Sheet 199071.00
AUD Million
201027 200420 200417 200416 200416
Foreign Exchange Reserves 82465.00
AUD Million
82734 80347 80158 80347 80313
Loans to Private Sector 919.05
AUD Billion
925 933 941 947 988
Deposit Interest Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 2.15 3.4
Private Debt to GDP 204.90
percent
200 200 200 196 191
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 977.00
AUD Million
300 600 2000 962 -500
Exports 34188.00
AUD Million
30800 31200 33000 34277 34500
Imports 33211.00
AUD Million
30500 30600 31000 33315 35000
Current Account -10469.00
AUD Million
-10653 -10962 -19000 -11361 -22900
Current Account to GDP -3.10
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.1 -2.3
External Debt 2005834.00
AUD Million
2039524 2065766 2083966 2105488 2353772
Terms of Trade 89.10
Index Points
87.15 85.4 88.88 86.3 90.89
Foreign Direct Investment 60499.00
AUD Million
51573 49598 47623 49434 53063
Capital Flows 7339.00
AUD Million
8373 10767 11251 11517 11645
Tourist Arrivals 872400.00
772400 680500 1022100 785600 1080400
Gold Reserves 72.80
Tonnes
72.8 72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79
Crude Oil Production 289.00
BBL/D/1K
279 279 278 278 278
Terrorism Index 3.09
2.07 1.79 1.51 1.46 1.23
Weapons Sales 97.00
USD Million
97 97 97 97 97
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.90
percent
40.7 40.7 40.7 36.5 32.9
Government Budget -1.90
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3
Government Budget Value 8787.00
AUD Million
4397 2415 6123 3636 6822
Government Spending 84615.00
AUD Million
82827 82688 85572 87069 90255
Government Revenues 44274.00
AUD Million
41221 39777 42887 40869 44067
Fiscal Expenditure 35487.00
AUD Million
36824 37362 37282 37233 37244
Military Expenditure 26102.32
USD Million
24272 23892 23512 23338 25625
Asylum Applications 3281.00
Persons
2922 3022 2962 2997 2984
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20
percent
35.46 35.54 35.63 35.5 34.65
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.00
Index Points
9 11 10 9 6
Manufacturing PMI 57.50
56.5 56.4 57.1 56.2 52
Services PMI 59.00
Index Points
54.1 53.8 55 53.5 52.2
Industrial Production 1.70
percent
1.74 2.05 1.78 2.02 1.88
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.32 0.56 0.59 0.49 0.47
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
-0.5 -0.6 0.5 0.3 1
Capacity Utilization 82.01
percent
82.2 82.14 82.16 82.16 82.16
New Orders 31.00
Index Points
32.84 33.87 34.44 34.76 35.15
Changes in Inventories 1222.00
AUD Million
660 619 505 530 450
Bankruptcies 619.00
Companies
672 656 652 651 650
Corporate Profits 86499.00
AUD Million
87387 87481 68900 86032 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 82930.00
98558 98835 99100 99009 101000
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand
14200 14200 14200 14260 14350
Leading Economic Index -0.22
percent
0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 7.92
3.51 3.88 3.6 3.81 3.71
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps
13287 13737 14067 14383 16567
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP
9930375 9945263 9942116 9949235 9953818
Private Investment 0.40
percent
1 1.01 1.02 1.09 1.25
Mining Production 1.10
percent
1.1 0.9 1.2 2.98 4
Steel Production 498.18
Thousand Tonnes
495 486 486 487 487
Business Inventories 0.70
percent
0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4
Competitiveness Index 5.19
Points
5.21 5.21 5.21 5.19 5.25
Competitiveness Rank 21.00
23 21 23 21 25
Composite Pmi 55.60
Index Points
55.5 55.1 53.9 53.5 56.5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
12 11 11 11 8
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
16 16 16 14 17
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.20
Index Points
102 101 104 99 104
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
0.24 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29
Retail Sales YoY 2.60
percent
2.35 2.28 2.3 2.31 2.6
Consumer Spending 256004.00
AUD Million
254499 256219 262019 263428 276357
Disposable Personal Income 297957.00
AUD Million
299913 301900 303767 305675 325777
Personal Savings 2.10
percent
2.34 2.5 2.49 2.56 2.49
Consumer Credit 2728.06
AUD Billion
2748 2778 2808 2837 3120
Private Sector Credit 0.40
percent
0.38 0.4 0.39 0.39 0.39
Households Debt To Gdp 121.70
percent of GDP
122 122 122 122 123
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent
8.65 8.65 8.65 8.9 10.15
Gasoline Prices 1.16
USD/Liter
1.16 1.09 1.03 0.97 0.68
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits -5.00
percent
5.1 -2.2 3.2 0.41 2
New Home Sales 5188.00
5400 5200 5000 4900 5550
Housing Index -0.70
percent
1.1 1.2 2 -0.4 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 65.00
percent
64 64 64 63.5 64
Construction Output 0.20
percent
1.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.2
Construction Pmi 54.00
Index Points
54.8 55.7 56 55.6 50
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 27.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius
18.27 16.54 25.05 26.96 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm
26.87 19.33 36.65 71.17 39.33