Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

In the second quarter of 2017, the Australian GDP grew 0.8 percent quarter on quarter, marking 104 consecutive periods without a recession, one of the longest streaks in the world. Yet, the economy may face some headwinds as wage growth is stagnant, the housing market is slowing and subdued prices of iron ore, coal and oil and slower growth in China may lower exports revenues. This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.1 2.1 2 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 3 percent
Balance of Trade -1358.00 1200 300 600 2000 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 40.17 41.05 41.05 42.8 32.9 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 0.79
0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.69
Stock Market 5943.70
points
5912 5778 5648 5520 4598
Government Bond 10Y 2.86
percent
2.98 3.14 3.3 3.48 4.28
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.9
GDP 1204.62
USD Billion
1600 1600 1600 1600 1720
GDP Constant Prices 430724.00
AUD Million
435405 437328 439067 440604 448597
Gross National Product 431914.00
AUD Million
439747 443650 446251 448250 453900
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108233.00
AUD Million
108976 109276 109352 109383 108118
GDP per capita 55670.90
USD
57220 57220 57220 57220 59160
GDP per capita PPP 44414.00
USD
45100 45100 45100 45100 46000
GDP From Agriculture 11238.00
AUD Million
11182 11157 11107 11056 10538
GDP From Construction 31936.00
AUD Million
32101 32117 32112 32092 31617
GDP From Manufacturing 25437.00
AUD Million
25421 25381 25360 25346 25168
GDP From Mining 25732.00
AUD Million
25826 25847 25841 25829 25548
GDP From Public Administration 23403.00
AUD Million
23378 23370 23366 23360 23291
GDP From Utilities 10518.00
AUD Million
10545 10510 10531 10514 10483
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50
percent
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.6
Employed Persons 12453.50
Thousand
12495 12526 12542 12550 12532
Unemployed Persons 723.80
Thousand
728 726 723 720 693
Part Time Employment 65900.00
Persons
11688 6223 6611 6597 6900
Full Time Employment -49800.00
Persons
3862 7551 7054 7039 7132
Employment Change 16000.00
Persons
22019 16711 14780 17100 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.60
percent
65.62 65.6 65.58 65.57 65.38
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.30
percent
12.33 12.37 12.41 12.45 12.78
Productivity 100.80
Index Points
98.88 98.46 98.25 98.15 97.78
Labour Costs 100.50
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Job Vacancies 210.80
Thousand
216 217 217 215 203
Job Advertisements 177960.57
178825 182512 182524 180536 146588
Wages 1179.00
AUD/Week
1195 1200 1204 1208 1233
Wage Growth 2.10
percent
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.3
Minimum Wages 694.90
AUD/week
695 705 705 705 760
Wages In Manufacturing 1254.10
AUD/Week
1238 1235 1233 1230 1220
Population 24.13
Million
24.26 24.26 24.26 24.3 24.66
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month
3500 3500 3500 3500 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month
2430 2431 2432 2433 2428
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month
6200 6200 6200 6200 6400
Employment Rate 62.00
percent
62.06 62.05 62.02 61.98 61.51
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month
2481 2481 2481 2481 2550
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2 2.1 2.1 2 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.6 0.5 0.4 1 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 112.10
Index Points
113 113 114 114 116
Core Consumer Prices 113.06
Index Points
113 114 114 114 117
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
1.9 2.1 2 2.1 2.1
GDP Deflator 104.38
Index Points
104 104 104 104 103
Producer Prices 108.60
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
Producer Prices Change 1.70
percent
1.6 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9
Export Prices 90.30
Index Points
92.51 92.88 91.89 90.77 87.08
Import Prices 104.10
Index Points
104 104 104 104 101
Food Inflation -0.20
percent
1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 3
Inflation Expectations 3.60
percent
3.72 3.92 4.08 4.19 4.38
CPI Housing Utilities 119.80
Index Points
121 121 122 123 124
CPI Transportation 102.70
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 2 3
Interbank Rate 2.00
percent
2 2.25 2.21 2.6 3.5
Money Supply M0 110.24
AUD Billion
111 111 110 110 109
Money Supply M1 356.07
AUD Billion
356 356 356 356 354
Money Supply M3 2047.32
AUD Billion
2040 2031 2023 2016 1965
Banks Balance Sheet 4131.61
AUD Billion
4134 4115 4110 4101 3947
Central Bank Balance Sheet 160931.00
AUD Million
159872 157649 155488 153392 132571
Foreign Exchange Reserves 65342.00
AUD Million
65384 64877 64063 63270 55212
Loans to Private Sector 907.84
AUD Billion
910 910 910 909 898
Deposit Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2 2.25 2.25 2.5 3.97
Private Debt to GDP 223.38
percent
227 226 225 224 214
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1358.00
AUD Million
1200 300 600 2000 -500
Exports 32465.00
AUD Million
31500 30800 31200 33000 34500
Imports 33823.00
AUD Million
30300 30500 30600 31000 35000
Current Account -9125.00
AUD Million
-8468 -8485 -8493 -19000 -22900
Current Account to GDP -2.70
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3
External Debt 1898196.00
AUD Million
1897848 1896426 1894394 1892078 1868346
Terms of Trade 114.70
Index Points
120 120 120 120 113
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00
AUD Million
47260 45584 43909 42233 40139
Capital Flows 14066.00
AUD Million
10594 10653 10940 10767 9298
Tourist Arrivals 776900.00
728500 713900 702100 690700 578800
Gold Reserves 79.85
Tonnes
79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84 79.84
Crude Oil Production 277.00
BBL/D/1K
307 317 326 335 404
Terrorism Index 3.09
2.35 2.07 1.79 1.51 1.23
Weapons Sales 127.00
USD Million
66.05 74.51 82.98 91.44 55.45
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10
percent
40.17 41.05 41.05 42.8 32.9
Government Budget -2.40
percent of GDP
-1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3
Government Budget Value -1006.00
AUD Million
-1480 -1339 -1089 -913 -663
Government Spending 81684.00
AUD Million
82402 82462 82599 82653 82473
Government Revenues 37215.00
AUD Million
36476 35517 34504 33481 24270
Fiscal Expenditure 38221.00
AUD Million
37081 36393 35686 35005 28470
Military Expenditure 24370.60
USD Million
24730 24372 24014 23656 22857
Asylum Applications 1640.00
Persons
1377 1313 1257 1206 889
Government Spending To Gdp 36.00
percent
35.38 35.46 35.54 35.63 34.65
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 12.00
Index Points
6 9 10 7 6
Manufacturing PMI 58.70
53 53.4 53 53.1 52
Services PMI 54.90
Index Points
53 52.8 52 51.9 52.2
Industrial Production 3.60
percent
3.84 3.47 2.73 2.15 2.14
Industrial Production Mom 1.40
percent
0.53 0.31 0.4 0.53 0.53
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
0.2 -0.5 -0.6 0.5 1
Capacity Utilization 82.67
percent
82.28 82.15 82.04 81.94 81.28
New Orders 33.00
Index Points
24.21 20.85 18.6 17.77 15.17
Changes in Inventories 506.00
AUD Million
451 445 473 475 481
Bankruptcies 534.00
Companies
595 611 619 625 651
Corporate Profits 79233.00
AUD Million
78508 78358 78253 68900 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 103743.00
101154 101131 100973 99100 101000
Car Production 1.00
Units
6963 9088 11101 10700 12700
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand
14123 14186 14250 14313 14958
Leading Economic Index -0.25
percent
0.02 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 3.36
-0.5 1.11 0.42 0.03 1.26
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps
12322 12490 12505 12519 11211
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP
9404654 9311370 9192759 9065898 8816418
Mining Production 5.90
percent
1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 4
Private Investment 1.00
percent
1.28 1.3 1.34 1.36 1.42
Steel Production 471.82
Thousand Tonnes
490 503 514 523 567
Competitiveness Index 5.19
Points
5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.25
Competitiveness Rank 21.00
23 23 22 23 25
Composite Pmi 54.20
Index Points
55.07 55.2 55.19 55.19 55.19
Business Inventories 0.20
percent
0.38 0.4 0.5 0.48 0.4
Corruption Index 79.00
Points
80 80 80 80 84
Corruption Rank 13.00
12 12 12 12 8
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
16 16 16 16 17
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.70
Index Points
96.8 97.4 98 99 104
Retail Sales MoM -0.50
percent
0.35 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.48
Retail Sales YoY 2.00
percent
2.73 3.34 3.63 5.3 3.6
Consumer Spending 250770.00
AUD Million
252536 253136 253760 254299 256787
Disposable Personal Income 291915.00
AUD Million
294500 294964 295912 296283 297556
Personal Savings 3.20
percent
3.85 3.9 4.04 4.13 5.12
Consumer Credit 2684.68
AUD Billion
2709 2730 2750 2767 2874
Private Sector Credit 0.30
percent
0.48 0.55 0.6 0.64 0.82
Households Debt To Gdp 121.90
percent of GDP
121 121 120 120 119
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent
8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 11
Gasoline Prices 1.13
USD/Liter
1.11 1.11 1.1 1 1.2
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Building Permits -20.00
percent
-6.2 5.1 -2.2 3.2 2
New Home Sales 6841.00
5900 6000 5800 5950 6550
Housing Index -0.20
percent
0.83 1.6 1.7 2 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 67.00
percent
67 66.91 66.82 66.73 68.17
Construction Output -19.40
percent
9 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.2
Construction Pmi 54.30
Index Points
51.5 51 50.7 53 50
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 27.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent
9.53 9.53 9.53 9.53 9.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius
26.91 18.27 16.54 25.05 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm
71.02 26.87 19.33 36.65 39.33