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Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectations
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power. In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectatoins
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East due to the war in the region raised prices of fuel and power. In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectations
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power. Transportation inflation surged to 7.6% from 3.7% in March amid 19.2% surge in energy prices (vs 3.9% in March). In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5% from 4%, and shelter inflation inched marginally higher to 1.8% vs 1.7%.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectations
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power. Transportation inflation surged to 7.6% from 3.7% in March amid 19.2% surge in energy prices (vs 3.9% in March). In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5% from 4%, and shelter inflation inched marginally higher to 1.8% vs 1.7%.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectations
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power. Transportation inflation surged to 7.6% from 3.7% in March amid 19.2% surge in energy prices (vs 3.9% in March). In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5% from 3.7%, and shelter inflation inched marginally higher to 1.8% vs 1.7%.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Rate Undershoots Expectatoins
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.8% in April of 2026 from 2.4% in the previous month, the highest in two years, albeit firmly under the market consensus of 3.1%. The increase extended the jump from the previous month as the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power. In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada's note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far. The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years.
Published on 2026-05-19

Canada Inflation Surges in March
The headline inflation rate in Canada surged to 2.4% in March of 2026 from 1.8% in the previous month, trying for the highest in one year but marginally below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of war in the Middle East in Canadian consumer prices, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide. The consumer energy inflation swung to 3.9% from the deflation rate of 9.3% in the previous month.
Published on 2026-04-20

Canada Inflation Surges in March
The headline inflation rate in Canada surged to 2.4% in March of 2026 from 1.8% in the previous month, trying for the highest in one year but marginally below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of war in the Middle East in Canadian consumer prices, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide. The consumer energy inflation swung to 3.9% from the deflation rate of 9.3% in the previous month, enough to raise transportation inflation to 3.7% (vs -0.8% in February). In turn, prices accelerated for shelter (1.7% vs 1.5%) and recreation and education (2.6% vs 0.5%). Meanwhile, base effects from the re-introduction of GST/HST taxes continued to impact food inflation, which fell to 4% from the 5.4% in February. The CPI rose 0.9% from the previous month amid a 21.2% surge in gasoline costs.
Published on 2026-04-20

Canada Inflation Surges in March
The headline inflation rate in Canada surged to 2.4% in March of 2026 from 1.8% in the previous month, trying for the highest in one year but marginally below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of war in the Middle East in Canadian consumer prices, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide. The consumer energy inflation swung to 3.9% from the deflation rate of 9.3% in the previous month, enough to raise transportation inflation to 3.7% (vs -0.8% in February). In turn, prices accelerated for shelter (1.7% vs 1.5%) and recreation and education (2.6% vs 0.5%). Meanwhile, base effects from the re-introduction of GST/HST taxes continued to impact food inflation, which fell to 4% from the 5.4% in February. The CPI rose 0.9% from the previous month amid a 21.2% surge in gasoline costs.
Published on 2026-04-20

Canada Inflation Surges in March
The headline inflation rate in Canada surged to 2.4% in March of 2026 from 1.8% in the previous month, tying for the highest in one year but marginally below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of war in the Middle East in Canadian consumer prices, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide. The consumer energy inflation swung to 3.9% from the deflation rate of 9.3% in the previous month, enough to raise transportation inflation to 3.7% (vs -0.8% in February). In turn, prices accelerated for shelter (1.7% vs 1.5%) and recreation and education (2.6% vs 0.5%). Meanwhile, base effects from the re-introduction of GST/HST taxes continued to impact food inflation, which fell to 4% from the 5.4% in February. The CPI rose 0.9% from the previous month amid a 21.2% surge in gasoline costs.
Published on 2026-04-20

Canada Inflation Surges in March
The headline inflation rate in Canada surged to 2.4% in March of 2026 from 1.8% in the previous month, trying for the highest in one year but marginally below market expectations of 2.5%. The surge reflected the initial impact of war in the Middle East in Canadian consumer prices, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide. The consumer energy inflation swung to 3.9% from the deflation rate of 9.3% in the previous month, enough to raise transportation inflation to 3.7% (vs -0.8% in February). In turn, prices accelerated for shelter (1.7% vs 1.5%) and recreation and education (2.6% vs 0.5%). Meanwhile, base effects from the re-introduction of GST/HST taxes continued to impact food inflation, which fell to 4% from the 5.4% in February. The CPI rose 0.9% from the previous month amid a 21.2% surge in gasoline costs.
Published on 2026-04-20

Canada Inflation Falls More than Expected
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 1.8% in February of 2026 from 2.3% in the previous month, slightly under market expectations of 1.9% to reflect the softest rate since July of the previous year. Price growth remained in line with the baseline expectations from the Bank of Canada that inflation would remain near the 2% mark in the near term, although the Bank's outlook and the data preceded the outbreak of war in Iran that triggered a surge in global energy prices, and those of other selected commodities. February's drop reflected base effects from the end of tax breaks in February of 2025, driving food inflation to slow to 5.3% from 7.3% last month. Prices also decelerated for recreation and education (0.5% vs 1% in January), household operations (1.2% vs 2.5%), and shelter (1.5% vs 1.7%), while transportation deflation slowed (-0.8% vs -1.7%). Meanwhile, core rates tracked by the BoC eased more than expected, with the trimmed-mean rate falling to a four-year low of 2.3%.
Published on 2026-03-16

Canadian Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada eased to 2.3% in January of 2026 from the three-month high of 2.4% in the previous period, slightly under market expectations that it would hold at 2.4%. The result was loosely aligned with the Bank of Canada's projection that the inflation rate would be near the 2.5% mark at the start of the year before treading below the 2% target, as base effects from the GST/HST break in January of 2025 continued to impact annual inflation rates. Deflation picked up for transportation (-17% vs -0.5% in December) due to the 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Inflation slowed for shelter (1.7% vs 2.1%) and household operations and furnishings (2.5% vs 3.6%). In turn, prices accelerated for food (7.3% vs 6.2%) due to breaks from the tax regimes, especially lifting prices of food from restaurants (12.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, well under expectations of 2.6%, for the lowest since April 2021.
Published on 2026-02-17

Canadian Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada eased to 2.3% in January of 2026 from the three-month high of 2.4% in the previous period, slightly under market expectations that it would hold at 2.4%. The result was loosely aligned with the Bank of Canada's projection that the inflation rate would be near the 2.5% mark at the start of the year before treading below the 2% target, as base effects from the GST/HST break in January of 2025 continued to impact annual inflation rates. Deflation picked up for transportation (-17% vs -0.5% in December) due to the 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Inflation slowed for shelter (1.7% vs 2.1%) and household operations and furnishings (2.5% vs 3.6%). In turn, prices accelerated for food (7.3% vs 6.2%) due to breaks from the tax regimes, especially lifting prices of food from restaurants (12.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, well under expectations of 2.6%, for the lowest since April 2021.
Published on 2026-02-17

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in four months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. A portion of the acceleration was owed base effects from the temporary GST and HST that started in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST halt introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST break introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Holds Near BoC Target
The headline inflation rate in Canada held at 2.2% in November of 2025, unchanged from October, below expectations of 2.3%, and still loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada’s baseline scenario. Gasoline prices fell 7.8% year-on-year, easing from the 9.4% decline in October as refinery disruptions pushed prices higher on a monthly basis. Food inflation reaccelerated, with prices for food purchased from stores rising 4.7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since late 2023, driven by higher prices for fresh fruit and other food preparations. Price growth also eased for shelter, as rent inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.2% in October. In the meantime, cellular service prices jumped 12.7% year-on-year, extending their rebound amid fewer industry-wide promotions. Meanwhile, core inflation remained firm at 2.6% for a third consecutive month, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures despite cooling in select service categories.
Published on 2025-12-15

Canada Inflation Rate Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), while inflation also eased for shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%). In the meantime, costs of cellular services jumped by 7.7% to record their first increase in over two years amid price hikes by several major wireless providers. Inflation also rose for mortgage insurance (6.8%) and car insurance (7.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core inflation rate, which is closely tracked by the BoC, inched down to 3%.
Published on 2025-11-17