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Canadian Dollar Strengthens After Ceasefire
The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.38 per US dollar as the greenback retreated following President Trump's decision to delay infrastructure strikes by two weeks in a conditional ceasefire. This relief rally stems from a sharp plunge in WTI crude after Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a two-week window to facilitate negotiations. While lower energy prices typically weigh on the loonie, the broader collapse of the US dollar index to a four-week low has provided a net gain for the Canadian currency. Investors are now recalibrating the domestic outlook as the immediate threat of energy-driven stagflation recedes although the loonie continues to underperform peers like the aussie and sterling which are less tied to the petroleum complex. Treasury yields have further eroded the greenback's carry advantage even as the market remains cautious ahead of Friday’s US inflation data.
Published on 2026-04-08

Canadian Dollar Strengthens After Ceasefire
The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.38 per US dollar as the greenback retreated following President Trump's decision to delay infrastructure strikes by two weeks in a conditional ceasefire. This relief rally stems from a sharp plunge in WTI crude after Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a two-week window to facilitate negotiations. While lower energy prices typically weigh on the loonie, the broader collapse of the US dollar index to a four-week low has provided a net gain for the Canadian currency. Investors are now recalibrating the domestic outlook as the immediate threat of energy-driven stagflation recedes although the loonie continues to underperform peers like the aussie and sterling which are less tied to the petroleum complex. Treasury yields have further eroded the greenback's carry advantage even as the market remains cautious ahead of Friday’s US inflation data.
Published on 2026-04-08

Canadian Dollar Strengthens After Ceasefire
The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.38 per US dollar as the greenback retreated following President Trump's decision to delay infrastructure strikes by two weeks in a conditional ceasefire. This relief rally stems from a sharp plunge in WTI crude after Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a two-week window to facilitate negotiations. While lower energy prices typically weigh on the loonie, the broader collapse of the US dollar index to a four-week low has provided a net gain for the Canadian currency. Investors are now recalibrating the domestic outlook as the immediate threat of energy-driven stagflation recedes although the loonie continues to underperform peers like the aussie and sterling which are less tied to the petroleum complex. Treasury yields have further eroded the greenback's carry advantage even as the market remains cautious ahead of Friday’s US inflation data.
Published on 2026-04-08

Canadian Dollar Rebounds Amid USD Weakness
The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.39 per US dollar, as the US dollar lost ground following reports of a Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire framework between Washington and Tehran. The loonie is finding support as fears of a catastrophic energy-driven inflation shock subside after Iranian officials shifted toward a tanker toll model in the Persian Gulf rather than a total blockade. This development reduced the immediate pressure on the Bank of Canada to maintain a highly restrictive monetary policy to combat secondary inflationary effects, effectively stabilizing the domestic outlook even as March manufacturing data showed a fifth month of contraction at 47.6. Although the US economy added a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs in March, the resultant shift away from safe-haven greenback holdings amid de-escalation hopes is currently overriding the yield advantage of the US dollar. Markets remain sensitive to President Trump’s looming Tuesday deadline for infrastructure strikes.
Published on 2026-04-06

Canadian Dollar Close to December-Lows
The Canadian dollar traded around 1.39 per USD, hovering near its lowest levels since December 2025, as traders assessed the latest developments in the Middle East. US President Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran but offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices remain close to 2022 highs, fuelling inflation concerns and boosting the US dollar. The loonie weakened by about 2% in March, marking its steepest monthly decline since December 2024. Last month, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25%, noting it was too soon to assess the economic impact of the conflict but money markets are pricing in around 41bps of tightening this year.
Published on 2026-04-02

Canadian Dollar Close to December-Lows
The Canadian dollar traded around 1.39 per USD, hovering near its lowest levels since December 2025, as traders assessed the latest developments in the Middle East. US President Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran but offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices remain close to 2022 highs, fuelling inflation concerns and boosting the US dollar. The loonie weakened by about 2% in March, marking its steepest monthly decline since December 2024. Last month, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25%, noting it was too soon to assess the economic impact of the conflict but money markets are pricing in around 41bps of tightening this year.
Published on 2026-04-02

Canadian Dollar Gains Ground for 2nd Session
The Canadian dollar rebounded to 1.39 per US dollar as a pullback in the greenback and hopes for a Middle East ceasefire offset signs of cooling domestic activity. The loonie found relief after touching its lowest levels since December as the US dollar index dropped on signals that the US aims to restore vessel flows and end the conflict with Iran within weeks. President Donald Trump indicated that a ceasefire was requested although he noted the US will only agree once the Strait of Hormuz is secure and fully operational which helped pull oil prices back from recent highs. However, the loonie faced headwinds as Canadian manufacturing performance stagnated in March with the sector index falling to 50.0 amid higher prices and tariff concerns. Consequently the Canadian dollar remains sensitive to shifting geopolitical tensions and the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged through the year.
Published on 2026-04-01

Canadian Dollar at Near 4-Month Low
The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.395 per US dollar, the lowest since December as a broadly stronger greenback and safe haven demand overshadowed a third consecutive month of domestic economic expansion. While a flash estimate showed the Canadian economy grew 0.2% in February behind a recovery in mining and financial services, the loonie struggled to capitalize on the growth as the US dollar strengthened amid persistent geopolitical instability. Fears of a prolonged conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin the greenback's status as the primary reserve currency despite a recent pullback in US Treasury yields. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that inflation expectations remain anchored in the long term though the potential for a larger US defense budget has led markets to price out near term rate cuts. Consequently the loonie remains vulnerable to the diverging fiscal outlooks and the risk of a sustained supply shock in the Persian Gulf.
Published on 2026-03-31

Canadian Dollar Weakens to December Lows
The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.39 per US dollar to hit a December low as persistent geopolitical friction and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations bolstered the greenback. Although energy prices have surged to 2022 highs amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz the commodity-linked Loonie struggled to gain traction against a broadly firmer US dollar. Market skepticism regarding a Middle East de-escalation intensified after Iran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and dismissed claims of ongoing negotiations while the US deployed additional troops to the region. These developments have fueled inflationary concerns and led traders to price out further Federal Reserve rate cuts with increasing bets on a potential hike by year-end. Rising US Treasury yields and the greenback's status as a global reserve currency continue to pressure the loonie while the Bank of Canada maintains its 2.25% policy rate.
Published on 2026-03-30

Canadian Dollar Weakens to 2-Month Low
The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.38 per US dollar to hit a two-month low as persistent geopolitical friction and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations bolstered the greenback. Although West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose beyond $92.00 amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz the commodity-linked Loonie struggled to gain traction against a broadly firmer US dollar. Market skepticism regarding a Middle East de-escalation intensified after Iran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and dismissed claims of ongoing negotiations while the US deployed additional troops to the region. These developments have fueled inflationary concerns and led traders to price out further Federal Reserve rate cuts with increasing bets on a potential hike by year-end. Rising US Treasury yields and the greenback's status as a global reserve currency continue to pressure the loonie.
Published on 2026-03-26

Canadian Dollar Weakens to 2-Month Lows
The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.375 per US dollar, marking fresh two month lows as a resurgent greenback and persistent geopolitical friction overwhelmed the brief relief from diplomatic efforts. Traders grew skeptical of a de-escalation following Iranian denials of direct talks and reports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may join the conflict against Tehran. Although oil prices continued to rise at a more moderate pace, the ongoing attacks on US bases in the Gulf have maintained a high risk premium that complicates the inflation outlook for both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. This heightened uncertainty has led markets to price out any Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026 as officials now signal a much more gradual easing path limited to single quarter point reductions in 2026 and 2027. Consequently the Loonie remains under intense pressure as the prospect of sustained high US interest rates and regional instability bolsters the greenback.
Published on 2026-03-24

Canadian Dollar Steady Near 2-Month Lows
The Canadian dollar stabilized near the 1.37 per USD mark, hovering near two-month lows as a shift toward diplomacy in the Middle East neutralized the safe-haven bid for the greenback while simultaneously cooling the global energy rally. President Trump’s decision to postpone military strikes on Iranian infrastructure for five days triggered a collapse in energy prices and eased the geopolitical premium previously embedded in the Loonie. While the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve both maintained a cautious stance on inflation, the domestic currency found a technical floor as US Dollar demand softened following disappointing American construction and manufacturing data. These factors effectively countered the loss of oil-led support, as Federal Reserve officials downplayed the necessity of near-term rate hikes despite the stagflationary risks cited by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Published on 2026-03-23

Canadian Dollar Hits 8-week Low
The Canadian Dollar touched 1.38 against the USD, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Canadian Dollar gained 0.38%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.95%.
Published on 2026-03-23

Canadian Dollar Drops to 2-Month Low
The Canadian dollar depreciated to the 1.37 per USD mark in March, its weakest in nearly two months as deteriorating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove global markets to find safety in the greenback, while investors assessed the policy outlooks between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Strikes from the US and Israel continued to target Iranian officials, dimming any hopes of a diplomatic resolution and increasing the pivot away from riskier currencies. Still, the Canadian dollar depreciated at a softer magnitude from other G10 currencies as it receives support from the conflict's resulting surge in energy prices, which increase the influx of foreign exchange into major energy exporters like Canada. On the macroeconomic front, the BoC maintained its benchmark rate unchanged as expected in its March decision. The BoC also flagged risks to both growth and inflation due to the conflict, while the Fed held rates but stressed upside inflation risks.
Published on 2026-03-18

Canadian Dollar Falls to 2-Month Low
The Canadian dollar depreciated to the 1.37 per USD mark in March, its weakest in nearly two months as deteriorating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove global markets to find safety in the greenback, while investors assessed the policy outlooks between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Strikes from the US and Israel continued to target Iranian officials, dimming any hopes of a diplomatic resolution and increasing the pivot away from riskier currencies. Still, the Canadian dollar depreciated at a softer magnitude from other G10 currencies as it receives support from the conflict's resulting surge in energy prices, which increase the influx of foreign exchange into major energy exporters like Canada. On the macroeconomic front, the BoC maintained its benchmark rate unchanged as expected in its March decision. The BoC also flagged risks to both growth and inflation due to the conflict, in line with expected signals from the Fed after their imminent policy decision.
Published on 2026-03-18

Canadian Dollar Starts Week Stronger
The Canadian dollar is rebounding past 1.37 per US dollar amid cooling domestic price pressures and easing energy supply concerns. Headline inflation in Canada fell more than expected to 1.8% in February which marks the softest rate in nearly a year and aligns with the Bank of Canada target despite the recent global energy shock. This deceleration was led by a significant slowdown in food and shelter costs while core inflation measures like the trimmed-mean rate reached four-year lows of 2.3%. Although previous labor data showed a loss of 83,900 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.7% the loonie is finding support from a slight retreat in the US dollar and stabilizing Treasury yields. Markets are now monitoring potential de-escalation signals in the Middle East after US officials suggested Iranian tankers may transit the Strait of Hormuz which has tempered the immediate demand for greenback liquidity. Investors remain focused on the upcoming Fed and BoC decisions.
Published on 2026-03-16

Canadian Dollar Weakens After Weak Labor Data
The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.37 per US dollar as cooling domestic labaor market and shifting global monetary policy expectations reshaped the currency outlook. The labor market deteriorated in February with an unemployment rate rise to 6.7% and a loss of 83,900 jobs which signaled a deeper cooling of the domestic economy. Manufacturing sales also declined 3% in January as industrial activity faces headwinds from weaker demand. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the strength of the greenback continue to weigh on the loonie. Markets are now adjusting to a delayed Federal Reserve easing cycle with rate cuts pushed toward September. This shift reinforces the yield advantage for the US dollar and leaves the loonie vulnerable to further volatility as investors favor the relative stability of the United States.
Published on 2026-03-13

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground
The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.36 per US dollar as the safe haven bid for the greenback overshadowed the support from surging energy prices. Defiant rhetoric from the new Iranian Supreme Leader which has stoked fears of a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and pushed WTI crude past 100 dollars per barrel. While record high oil prices typically provide a tailwind for the loonie the currency is now caught in a tug of war against a resurgent US dollar as global risk appetite sours. Domestic economic data has also turned mixed with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in February as a growing labor force outpaced modest job gains. Despite this softening the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% during the March 18th meeting to combat 2.4% headline inflation and the threat of new supply chain shocks. This firm stance aims to maintain a yield buffer against the Fed although the loonie remains vulnerable to the broader flight to safety.
Published on 2026-03-12

Canadian Dollar Holds Strong
The Canadian dollar strengthened past 1.36 per US dollar as the impact of surging energy prices and a cooling US labor market reshaped the North American monetary landscape. This appreciation is primarily driven by West Texas Intermediate crude oil which remains elevated near 85 dollars per barrel following reports of the largest proposed strategic reserve release in the history of the International Energy Agency. The loonie found additional support from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which continues to highlight Canada as a secure energy provider for the United States during the ongoing conflict with Iran. The Bank of Canada has further supported the currency by maintaining a steady 2.25% policy rate to address sticky headline inflation of 2.3% and a tight 6.5% unemployment rate. Unlike the Fed, which faces pressure for policy easing after the unexpected loss of 92K US jobs triggered a decline in the dollar index, the Canadian central bank's firm stance offers a yield buffer.
Published on 2026-03-11

Canadian Dollar Rebounded to Near 1-Month Highs
The Canadian dollar strengthened past 1.37 per US dollar, outperforming its G7 peers and reached a near 1-month high as the simultaneous impact of surging energy prices and a cooling US labor market reshaped the North American monetary landscape. This appreciation is primarily driven by a surge in WTI crude oil past 92$ per barrel which has increased foreign currency inflows into Canada's energy-heavy economy. The loonie found additional support from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which highlighted Canada as a secure energy provider for the US. The Bank of Canada has further supported the currency by maintaining a steady 2.25% policy rate since January to address sticky headline inflation of 2.3% and a tight 6.5% unemployment rate. Unlike the Federal Reserve which now faces pressure for July rate cuts, after the unexpected loss of 92K US jobs triggered a decline in the dollar index, the Canadian central bank's firm stance offers a yield buffer against 10% US import tax threats.
Published on 2026-03-06