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Canada Inflation Falls More than Expected
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 1.8% in February of 2026 from 2.3% in the previous month, slightly under market expectations of 1.9% to reflect the softest rate since July of the previous year. Price growth remained in line with the baseline expectations from the Bank of Canada that inflation would remain near the 2% mark in the near term, although the Bank's outlook and the data preceded the outbreak of war in Iran that triggered a surge in global energy prices, and those of other selected commodities. February's drop reflected base effects from the end of tax breaks in February of 2025, driving food inflation to slow to 5.3% from 7.3% last month. Prices also decelerated for recreation and education (0.5% vs 1% in January), household operations (1.2% vs 2.5%), and shelter (1.5% vs 1.7%), while transportation deflation slowed (-0.8% vs -1.7%). Meanwhile, core rates tracked by the BoC eased more than expected, with the trimmed-mean rate falling to a four-year low of 2.3%.
Published on 2026-03-16

Canadian Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada eased to 2.3% in January of 2026 from the three-month high of 2.4% in the previous period, slightly under market expectations that it would hold at 2.4%. The result was loosely aligned with the Bank of Canada's projection that the inflation rate would be near the 2.5% mark at the start of the year before treading below the 2% target, as base effects from the GST/HST break in January of 2025 continued to impact annual inflation rates. Deflation picked up for transportation (-17% vs -0.5% in December) due to the 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Inflation slowed for shelter (1.7% vs 2.1%) and household operations and furnishings (2.5% vs 3.6%). In turn, prices accelerated for food (7.3% vs 6.2%) due to breaks from the tax regimes, especially lifting prices of food from restaurants (12.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, well under expectations of 2.6%, for the lowest since April 2021.
Published on 2026-02-17

Canadian Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada eased to 2.3% in January of 2026 from the three-month high of 2.4% in the previous period, slightly under market expectations that it would hold at 2.4%. The result was loosely aligned with the Bank of Canada's projection that the inflation rate would be near the 2.5% mark at the start of the year before treading below the 2% target, as base effects from the GST/HST break in January of 2025 continued to impact annual inflation rates. Deflation picked up for transportation (-17% vs -0.5% in December) due to the 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Inflation slowed for shelter (1.7% vs 2.1%) and household operations and furnishings (2.5% vs 3.6%). In turn, prices accelerated for food (7.3% vs 6.2%) due to breaks from the tax regimes, especially lifting prices of food from restaurants (12.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, well under expectations of 2.6%, for the lowest since April 2021.
Published on 2026-02-17

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST break introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in four months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. A portion of the acceleration was owed base effects from the temporary GST and HST that started in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises
The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST halt introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.
Published on 2026-01-19

Canada Inflation Rate Holds Near BoC Target
The headline inflation rate in Canada held at 2.2% in November of 2025, unchanged from October, below expectations of 2.3%, and still loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada’s baseline scenario. Gasoline prices fell 7.8% year-on-year, easing from the 9.4% decline in October as refinery disruptions pushed prices higher on a monthly basis. Food inflation reaccelerated, with prices for food purchased from stores rising 4.7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since late 2023, driven by higher prices for fresh fruit and other food preparations. Price growth also eased for shelter, as rent inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.2% in October. In the meantime, cellular service prices jumped 12.7% year-on-year, extending their rebound amid fewer industry-wide promotions. Meanwhile, core inflation remained firm at 2.6% for a third consecutive month, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures despite cooling in select service categories.
Published on 2025-12-15

Canada Inflation Rate Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), while inflation also eased for shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%). In the meantime, costs of cellular services jumped by 7.7% to record their first increase in over two years amid price hikes by several major wireless providers. Inflation also rose for mortgage insurance (6.8%) and car insurance (7.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core inflation rate, which is closely tracked by the BoC, inched down to 3%.
Published on 2025-11-17

Canada Inflation Rate Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), while inflation also eased for shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%). In the meantime, costs of cellular services jumped by 7.7% to record their first increase in over two years amid price hikes by several major wireless providers. Inflation also rose for mortgage insurance (6.8%) and car insurance (7.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core inflation rate, which is closely tracked by the BoC, inched down to 3%.
Published on 2025-11-17

Canada Inflation Rate Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, aligned with market expectations and loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), and shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%).
Published on 2025-11-17

Canada Inflation Rate Eases
The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), and shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%).
Published on 2025-11-17

Canada Inflation Rate Rises to 7-Month High
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in September of 2025 from 1.9% in the previous month, overshooting market expectations of 2.3% to mark the highest inflation rate since February. It was the first time inflation crossed the Bank of Canada's 2% threshold in six months. Base-year effects drove gasoline deflation to ease to 4.1% from 12.7% in August, with the drop in crude oil prices preventing a rebound in fuel prices. Consequently, transportation costs rose by 1.5% annually from the 0.5% drop last month. The CPI accelerated for food (3.8% vs 3.4% in August) due to a pickup in inflation for groceries (4% vs 3.5%), owed to a rebound in prices of vegetables 1.9% vs -2%) and a surge in sugar and confectionery (9.2% vs 5.8%). In turn, inflation rose for household operations (2.4% vs 2.1%) and recreation, education, and reading (1.6% vs 0.5). The mean core inflation rate, closely watched by the BoC, held at the one-year high of 3.2%, contrasting with expectations of 3%.
Published on 2025-10-21

Canada Inflation Rate Rises to 7-Month High
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in September of 2025 from 1.9% in the previous month, overshooting market expectations of 2.3% to mark the highest inflation rate since February. It was the first time inflation crossed the Bank of Canada's 2% threshold in six months, limiting the room for the central bank to ease rates and attend to growth concerns.
Published on 2025-10-21

Canada Inflation Rate Edges Up to 1.9%, Still Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2%. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs. -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16

Canada Inflation Rate Rises Less than Anticipated
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2% and staying below the BoC’s 2% midpoint for the fifth straight month. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.1%, after a 0.3% increase in July and compared with estimates of no change. The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16

Canada Inflation Rate Rises Less than Anticipated
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2%. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months.The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16

Canada Inflation Rate Rises Less than Anticipated
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2% and staying below the BoC’s 2% midpoint for the fifth straight month. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months. Food inflation ticked up (3.4% vs 3.3%), mainly due to higher prices of meat (7.2% vs 4.7%). Meanwhile, prices for shelter, representing almost 30% of the CPI basket, increased 2.6% in August, easing from 3% in July as both mortgage and rent costs moderated. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.1%, after a 0.3% increase in July and compared with estimates of no change. The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16

Canada Inflation Rate Rises Less than Anticipated
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2% and staying below the BoC’s 2% midpoint for the fifth straight month. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months. At the same time, food inflation ticked up (3.4% vs 3.3%), mainly due to higher prices of meat (7.2% vs 4.7%). Meanwhile, prices for shelter, representing almost 30% of the CPI basket, increased 2.6% in August, easing from 3% in July as both mortgage and rent costs moderated. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.1%, after a 0.3% increase in July and compared with estimates of no change. The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16

Canada Inflation Rate Rises Less than Anticipated
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in August 2025, from 1.7% in July, but below the expected 2%. The smaller year-on-year decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1% in July) was a key factor behind the pickup in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.1%, after a 0.3% increase in July and compared with estimates of no change. The trimmed-mean core CPI, which is closely followed by the BoC for underlying inflation, eased to 3% in August, down from 3.1% in July, matching market forecasts.
Published on 2025-09-16