US Job Growth Likely Accelerated in July

The US economy unexpectedly shed 23K jobs in July 2026, following a downwardly revised 20K gain in June and compared to forecasts of an 80K increase. Employment figures for May and June were also revised lower, with the combined revisions showing that employment was 103K lower than previously reported. In July, employment in local government education declined by 50K and retail trade decreased by 19K, mostly warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-21K) and in gasoline stations and fuel dealers (-5K). Employment also declined in financial activities (-14K) and showed little change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; social assistance; leisure and hospitality; and other services. In contrast, the health care sector added 22K jobs.

The US economy likely added 80,000 jobs in July 2026, up from 57,000 in June, pointing to a modest rebound after payroll growth slowed from the stronger pace seen in the spring. The private sector is expected to have accounted for 78,000 of those gains, while government employment likely increased by 2,000. Healthcare was likely to lead job growth in July, while a rebound in leisure and hospitality payrolls was also expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.2%, hovering near one-year lows. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% from the previous month and 3.5% from a year earlier, matching June’s pace. Overall, the report is expected to point to a relatively steady labour market.

The US economy added 57K jobs in June 2026, well below a downwardly revised 129K in May and forecasts of 110K. It is the lowest job gain in four months, following three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected gains. However, it was roughly in line with the average monthly change over the prior 12 months (+36K). In June, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services (36K), social assistance (+25K), and health care (+22K). Employment in leisure and hospitality declined by 61K, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring, and likely an effect of the World Cup. Meanwhile, employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and government. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April and May was revised down by 74K combined.