US Mortgage Applications Fall to 20-Month Low

The volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by 4.2% in the week ending October 2, marking the fifth consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level since January 2025, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The drop tracked a sharp increase in mortgage rates over the period, as the benchmark 30-year fixed rate averaged a near-three-year high of 7.49%. Yields on long-term securities continued to surge at the turn of the month despite Treasury efforts to tame the long end by increasing bill issuance and expanding buybacks of nominal notes and bonds. Applications to refinance a loan, which are sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, fell by 7.5% from the previous week, while purchase applications declined by 2.1%.

US mortgage applications fell 6% in the week ending September 25, extending the decline to a fourth consecutive week as borrowing costs continued to rise. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming balances increased to 7.30% from 7.12%, reaching its highest level since November 2023. Higher rates have particularly discouraged refinancing, with applications dropping 9% and its share of total mortgage activity falling to 38.3% from 39.3%. Government-backed refinancing was even weaker, declining 13% as both FHA and VA applications recorded double-digit falls, according to MBA economist Joel Kan. Demand for home purchases also weakened, with applications down 4% on the week. Buyers are facing the combined pressure of elevated mortgage rates and continued annual increases in home prices. Meanwhile, adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer rates roughly 80 basis points below fixed loans, accounted for 10.3% of applications, the highest proportion since October 2025.

The volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by 1.5% in the third week of September, extending the 4.1% drop in the earlier period to mark a third straight decline, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The result was aligned with the sharp increase in mortgage rates in the period, with that on the benchmark 30-year fixed rate averaging a two-year high of 7.12%. Hence, nearly 10% of applications were for riskier adjusted-rate mortgages. Applications to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, fell by 3%. Yields on longer maturity Treasury securities soared at the turn of the month as high energy prices, elevated debt supply, and widening deficits limited exposure to duration in fixed income. In turn, applications for a mortgage to buy a home inched down by 1%.