US Inflation Rate Likely Accelerated for 2nd Month

2025-10-24 06:52 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated for a second consecutive month to 3.1% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August, which would mark the highest level since May 2024.

The pickup is expected to reflect higher prices for food, and tariff-affected goods, as well as a slower-than-expected easing of service-sector inflation, particularly in housing.

Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to hold steady at 3.1%, with monthly headline and core CPI readings seen unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, suggesting that tariff-related price pressures remain contained.

The CPI report, originally scheduled for release on October 15, was delayed due to the government shutdown.

However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled a portion of its furloughed staff to ensure the data’s publication.



News Stream
US Inflation Rate Tops Forecasts
The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months and above market expectations of 3.6%, driven by higher energy prices. Gasoline rose 34.2% yoy, more than 27.4% in August and fuel oil prices increased 74.2%, compared with 52% previously. Inflation also accelerated for shelter, to 3.2% from 3%, but slowed for food to 2.5% from 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months, compared to 0.4% in August and in line with forecasts. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. Recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel also went up while food prices steadied and communication declined. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate went up to 2.6% from 2.4%, more than forecasts of 2.5% while monthly core CPI inflation steadied at 0.3%, the same as in August and defying forecasts it would slow to 0.2%.
2026-10-14
US Inflation Set to Accelerate on Rising Energy Prices
The US annual inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 3.6% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months, driven primarily by rising energy prices. On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast to increase by 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months, as gasoline prices are expected to rise by more than 7%, while food prices are also projected to edge higher. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is expected to tick up to 2.5% from 2.4%, while monthly core CPI inflation is forecast to moderate to 0.2% from 0.3%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained. Airline fares likely continued to rise amid higher jet fuel costs, while rents are expected to post moderate increases. Goods prices likely edged up only marginally as the impact of tariffs gradually waned.
2026-10-14
US CPI Report Comes Broadly in Line with Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US steadied at 3.4% in August 2026, the same as in July and in line with forecasts. Gasoline prices rose 27.4% yoy, slightly more than 24.6% in July and fuel oil prices increased 52%, compared with 39.1% previously. On the other hand, inflation eased for shelter, to 3% from 3.2%, and for food to 2.7% from 3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4%, the most in three months, also matching forecasts. Gasoline rose 3.9% in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly increase while natural gas (-1.1%) and electricity (-0.2%) fell. Food edged up 0.1% while shelter rose 0.3%. Other increases were also seen for communication (2.3%), airline fares (2.7%), education (0.8%) and used cars and trucks (0.4%). Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, above 0.2% in July and forecasts of 0.2%. The annual rate however, slowed to 2.4%, the lowest reading since March 2021, from 2.5%, in line with expectations.
2026-09-11