US 10-Year Treasury Yield Edges Up

2026-10-19 13:23 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.13% on Monday, following a nearly 15bps decline the previous week, as traders continued to weigh domestic inflation and interest rate expectations against broader geopolitical developments.

Investors are currently pricing in an nearly 83% probability that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged next week, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December stand at around 75%.

Speaking at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signaling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, noting that hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy.

His remarks helped reinforce market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady.

Both CPI and PPI reports released last week came in hotter than expected.

Oil prices edged slightly lower on Monday but remained elevated.



News Stream
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Steady on Wednesday
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady at around 5.1% on Wednesday as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy decision next week. Markets are pricing in an approximately 85% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December stand at around 75%. Oil prices were up on Wednesday following fresh missile strikes targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi energy facilities. Housing data released this week pointed to mortgage rates weighing on demand, while CPI and PPI reports published last week signaled mounting inflationary pressures. Treasury yields had surged to multi-decade highs earlier this month amid a global bond selloff, driven by persistent energy-related inflation, mounting government debt, and deteriorating fiscal conditions across major economies.
2026-10-21
US 10-Year Yield Steadies on Inflation Worries
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady near 5.12% on Wednesday, recovering from the previous session’s decline as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of further interest rate hikes. Oil prices resumed their upward momentum after a diplomat dismissed reports that an agreement to end the US-Iran conflict was imminent, while confirming that negotiations remain ongoing. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, although markets are pricing in a possible rate hike in December. Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs earlier this month amid a global bond selloff, driven by persistent energy-related inflation pressures, mounting government debt, and deteriorating fiscal conditions across major economies.
2026-10-21
US Treasury Yields Fall on Tuesday
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell nearly 5 basis points to 5.09% on Tuesday, hovering near one-month lows, as oil prices declined on hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran, while weaker housing data added to the downward pressure. Housing starts fell 5.2% in September, while pending home sales dropped to a record low, highlighting the continued impact of elevated mortgage rates on housing demand. Investors also weighed persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision next week. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, while markets anticipate a 25bps hike in December. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to near-term monetary policy expectations, edged down to 4.76%. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to longer-term inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, also declined to 5.42%.
2026-10-20